~~~ Disclaimer ~~~

"Humanity's eternal stories to explain the stars concern basic tension between
resentment and forgiveness, between the need for intimacy and the desire for independence,
between power and compassion, good and evil, life and death,
between what the heart yearns for and what the mind demands."
Anne Hillerman

Liminal spaces are places of transition, such as the time and space between work and home (from the Latin limen meaning threshold). Matthew Piszczek and Kristie McAlpine argue in Scientific American (6 February 2023) that commuting provides liminal space -- time that is free from both home and work roles providing opportunities to switch gears from one activity to another.

I've often posed a related commuting choice on a modal basis: car versus bus. For most people (some don't like driving or don't have a choice), when one leaves work and gets into a car, one enters a controlled environment that is essentially separation from work and the activities associated with work. In existing modes of public transit, this separation is not well-defined. While any mode of travel requires attention and decision making (driving responsibilities for private vehicles, schedule and access to and from public modes), the environment within a private vehicle is controlled while that in most public modes is not. In a sense, one is "home," as in separated from work, when one enters a private mode while with a public mode one is not "home" until one actually reaches the place called home.

There are exceptions. A particularly gnarly commute involving irregular elements such as bad weather, excess congestion, or other events that interrupt the process of separation can change the dynamics of either a private or a public commute. Regular disruptions may influence the choice of private versus public mode. For example, a freeway commute that grows excessively congested might encourage a commuter to seek other options (a different route, departure time, mode, or even work location). Piszczek and McAlpine suggest the same:

"more attention to the act of commuting means less attention that could otherwise be put toward relaxing recovery activities like listening to music and podcasts. On the other hand, longer commutes might give people more time to detach and recover."

In the pandemic, many people said that they missed their commutes. What they missed was more likely the psychological separation from work that a commute provides. In the same manner that I disagree with Pat Mokhtarian that there is a positive utility of travel, the value of the commute is from the activity that is performed while commuting (or jogging, or joy-riding), not from the travel component itself. These people missed the separation, not the actual time in traffic. The loss may have been exacerbated by a near complete loss of separation when working from home.

Something to crow about? Monday 22 April 2024 was groundbreaking for the Brightline West high speed rail system which will link the Los Angeles region to Las Vegas. The system, spanning 218 miles "on a dark desert highway" better known as the 15, is expected to open for service by the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.

I've frequently commented on the California High Speed Rail project, approved by voters in 2008 for $10 billion of California state funding via Proposition 1A, including The Idioms of High-Speed Rail (25 March 2024), The Once and Future King (Part 2) (14 March 2022), and Train in Vain (31 December 2019).

When Prop 1A was on the ballot, I commented that rather than an LA to San Francisco high speed rail route, a route from LA to Las Vegas made a hell of a lot more sense. Nonetheless, I commented somewhat skeptically about the Brightline West project in Dinah, Blow Your Horn (3 March 2024). However, to show that I do (usually) have an open mind about most issues, and taken by the planned route for this project down the median of the 15 freeway through the Mojave Desert, I've taken the liberty to compose an ode to the Brightline project, to appear in this blog soon.

Update: Although Brightline planning has proceeded smoothly, there are no estimates yet on potential fares. The LA Times (23 April 2024) reported that Brightline noted that other high-speed rail systems charge as much as $1 per mile, which would place a ticket on Brightline West at about $400 round trip.

California Commutes
In the LA Times (14 April 2024), Susan Straight asks "Can You Beat this Epic California Commute?" Straight describes a roundabout, rainy February trip home from Santa Barbara to Riverside that starts like a scene from SNL's The Californians. Take the 101 to the 126 through Santa Paula to the 5 in Castaic, then onto the 14 skirting the Angeles National Forest, and turning east on the 138. The ending links on the 215 and the 91 three hours later seemed a bit anti-climactic. I made the SNL connection based on the article's title but I was happily surprised that Straight embraced this California reality. But Straight flavors her writing with snapshots of not the road and the traffic but of the geographies through which she travels and her family, neighbors, and fellow drivers. I have but the smallest of quibbles, and likely one selected by the editors: this is not about an epic commute. It's about a life's journey, much longer than the several long trips that she describes.

California Skates
Also in the LA Times (14 April 2024), Zan Romanoff writes about Jose Vadi's Chipped comprising essays about the art and culture, and the sport, of skateboarding. I don't have the insight to comment on what constitutes skateboard culture, but I do see the parallels between a lifestyle that reflects a world view from a skateboard and the viewpoints posed by Susan Straight from the equally Californian mode of freeway commutes. A book that promises such a different perspective of public space and geography is like an enticing aroma but one that you don't yet recognize.

California Recalls
On the same day I read the LA Times articles reflected in California Commutes and California Skates, I found Kathleen Clary Miller's More Than Just a Freeway which appeared in Pasadena Now (29 October 2023). Miller offers a much too short memory of learning to drive on what was, is, and I hope will always be historic Route 66, The Pasadena Freeway, the 110 (or California's Unfinished Freeway), and Arroyo Seco Parkway. This rose by any other name becomes a typical arterial at Glenarm Street before ending at Colorado Boulevard. I don't drive on freeways as much as I used to, but you have to love anyone who writes that a freeway "has been my playground for the 56 years I've been driving."

Jon Hartley interviewed (7 March 2024) Steven Levitt, author of Freakonomics, on his decision to retire from academic economics. How did Levitt get into economics? Essentially he attended what he called "a joke" lecture on comparative advantage that provided a "first inkling ... that maybe [he] thought like an economist." Now, however, he doesn't sound like he will miss academic economics, nor his colleagues.

I've heard many generalizations about engineering professors and, as with many stereotypes, there a modicum of truth, likely due to academic interbreeding. But is there an engineering thought process? Some say there's a desire and intrinsic skills to tinker and take things apart to understand how they work but, quite frankly, this is not the case in some areas of engineering, including civil engineering. I believe, however, that Levitt indeed "thought like an economist." First, I read Freakonomics. Such academics are more often than not brilliant at cutting to the gist but only, as they are wont to say, from an economist's perspective. My sense is that they've all drank the academic kool-aid, the flavor that allows them to only think this way. It's sort of a religion.

Levitt added "I only did economics because it came naturally to me. And I never liked it, per se." I concluded the same about engineering, until I tripped over transportation engineering and the likes of Buzz Paaswell and Will Recker at SUNY Buffalo, both of whom enjoyed beer and wings but not kool-aid. Levitt said that it took him years to understand that usually nobody cares at all about your research. Me, as soon as I published something, I came to the same conclusion. To the people who live, work, and make actual decisions, academic papers are not worth the paper they're published on.

Levitt is retiring at 57. Me? I'm still going two six packs later in life. There are two differences, at least from my perspective (I'm writing this before I read Levitt's rationale). First, he's been out front, sort of steering his ship through media, the university, and economics in general, while I've charted a course to avoid the equivalent in engineering, so I haven't grown tired of it. Second, Levitt seems to be more of a utilitarian, following some muse and leveraging his intelligence and insight to scale great heights. I have been able to do what needs to be done but also to avoid the deeper commitments by actually being more focused on what I like than others appear to have been. I avoided being chair and joining high-level committees, and grew to avoid editorial boards and conferences, but I give 100 percent when I do get involved. Maybe a third difference -- my goal has never been papers, personal connections, or name recognition. My goal has always been making people think -- not so much other academics (they are a stubborn lot), but rather students. My thought process and my views of academia and the world differ from most faculty. All I try to do is to make students think. Deeply. I may have a low batting average but I've planted enough seeds to last several generations.

Levitt's interview ends with him saying "Hey, I'm not going to be an academic anymore. I'm going to be doing what I really love to do." I think I've always been doing what I love. And somehow this has worked for me.

A standard part of the transportation planning process, alternatives analyses has not always been something that is well documented outside of voluminous project documentation. A recent project that provides a nice review of alternatives is I-94 freeway from St. Paul to Minneapolis, Minnesota's Twin Cities. This project is relevant to current planning efforts focused on what to do with aging freeways. Another example is I-81 in Syracuse, New York, a project close to my home town and of which during my childhood I experienced the construction of the raised freeway which obliterated predominantly black neighborhoods (see ACLU for some history and NYSDOT for project progress.

"Re-thinking" versus "Re-imagining"
For Minnesota's I-94 project, a selling point is "Re-thinking I-94," the official Minnesota DOT project, and "Re-imagining I-94," an alternative perspective by Our Streets Minneapolis, an organization founded in 2009 as the Minneapolis Bicycle Coalition. A review of the formal alternatives analyses has an excellent starting point at the MNDOT project site that provides cross sectional views of eight major alternatives plus several variations.

I read about the two perspectives and, initially, I thought I was on a Re-imagining site and was impressed that they were presenting a full range of alternatives, including maintaining the freeway, and I was also surprised that some of the plans replaced the freeway with an arterial. But this was the "Re-Thinking" site. However, the "Re-Imagining" sites also provide comprehensive graphics of their proposed alternatives. For information from the "Re-Imagining" perspective, see Twin Cities Boulevard as well as their full report. There are numerous other informative sites, significant press coverage (often with a pay wall), and a variety of site from a range of, shall we say, "non-freeway supporters" which provide, as one would expect, a range of opinions.

So many faculty members seek entertainment in ballet, opera, classical music, and other arts pursuits which I always saw as what one's parents would seek for entertainment. While there are many popular musical and, in general, art genres that do little for me, there are many that do. It is not absolute either way, at least for me. But where within the systems of education and experience, with heavy potential doses of parental, peer, and media influences, do these tastes develop? And why do they appear to develop differently in those who seek PhDs? It applies to most if not all areas of culture, whether it be film, food, or fantasy. Why do so many professors appear to be so stereotypical (I originally wrote boringly professorial)? As with most of my questions, and as Sting wrote (or was it Brahms), it's probably me.

Virtually everyone I met in college at least occasionally celebrated 420 but it seems that few if any ever became a faculty member. Maybe it's not me?

Trumpelstiltskin is an American fairy tale being written by the Brothers Maga, and a fairy tale that could come horrifically true. Our felonious former Prez plays dual roles, one reflecting his primary persona of the pompous miller who brags all that he touches turns to gold, and the other being the annoying goblin who claims that only he can be the realm's salvation while he's trying to scam you out of your future. Will we guess his real game so he will "run away angrily, and never come back" or will he complete the con and take everything that we hold dear? All we need to do is to call out his true name in unison.

We continue the discussion on Ryan Fonseca's LA Times article The Problem Is Not AI (28 January 2024). I think it's important to separate that discussion, which focused on AI methods to potentially address problems with California's highway system, from a discussion of the problems themselves. I initially had "The Problem Is I" in the post title, where the "I" was not the pronoun but rather "I for Intelligence." After writing this, I changed it to "The Problem Is Us" where the "Us" is indeed the pronoun.

"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo (Walt Kelly, 1971)

The biggest difference between those who love living in big cities and those who don't,
is that those who do, can't comprehend why those who don't, don't."

Problem 1. Growth. In a growing area the best one can hope for is to accommodate growth. If congestion exists in a growing area then, yes, you can at best, in the long run, only manage congestion. Most people engaged with this problem know that. Growth affects all of a region's public resources. If you don't want to continue what appears to some to be a vicious cycle, then you need to control growth (there are many ways) or you need to totally restructure how transportation and activity systems interact.

Problem 2. Induced Demand. This is a popular misrepresentation by those opposed to "freeways, cars, and trucks" and sparse development. Do they really believe that a person who is currently happy with their travel patterns will suddenly say "Hey, new lanes, let's travel more!" So what could happen? First, growth (and if you're going to allow it you had best anticipate it and either accommodate or control it). Second, people adjust their travel to different destinations, modes, times-of-day, or routes to optimize their perceived utility, but they don't necessarily make more trips (FYI, the average domestic trip rate per capita has been slowly decreasing for the past 20 plus years). Third, if demand was indeed already suppressed, then the reduced cost will allow people to travel more. There are some intricacies -- read my blog for reated posts. By the way, a comprehensive study by Bob Cervero showed that the average long-run return of congestion was, at worst, about 90 percent, meaning some congestion reduction is still realized.

Problem 3. It's not just planners. It's also misguided engineers doing what uninformed decision-makers think will work. Think HOT (Express) Lanes. My post I Said Along the 405, Stuart (13 December 2024) is an example:

Those who hate adding freeway lanes claim that they only induce demand (which is misleading if not wrong) but HOT lanes actually may induce demand so wealthier individuals can travel by car more frequently, farther, and at any time, while changing nothing regarding demand or performance on the remaining lanes of the freeway.

Problem 4. Capacity is Capacity. Out of one side of their mouths, planners supporting public transit say that it will improve traffic flow when some drivers start using more transit, but out of the other side of their mouths comes the claim that new highway capacity (available when there are less people driving) will only induce more traffic? Subject to my triad above (growth, travel reallocation, and the suppressed/induced demand conundrum) any capacity increase that is valued by users will have a system-wide impact on traffic.

So what to do? Well, Ward-Waller is correct about the deep-seated culture at Caltrans of "wanting to build more things." This is more than Caltrans. It's every politician who stands to cut a big ribbon in front of a big stream of cars. Yes, it is entrenched. It's not always wrong, but most efforts to go cold turkey (such as Vision Zero) are guaranteed to fail.

I'll leave you with a oddly annoying story regarding a well-known publication associated with a transportation research program. They appear to want articles that simply state that "A is always A" even when this is not true, apparently because decision makers supposedly want definitive answers. Unfortunately, there is little if any informed consensus in the field of transportation, nor is there a stranglehold on the associated expertise. But as Robert Creighton wrote in his classic 1970 textbook regarding transportation planning:

"It is almost as if people delight in having an area in which anybody can speculate
because nobody knows anything about the subject."

I've been busy, really busy, a state that I've often compared to a storm. It doesn't happen frequently, and mostly comprises small matters that are readily addressed. And you usually see it coming, not that this foresight has you anticipating and fixing any potential drips before they occur. I almost always finish the tasks on time, and I think I finish these tasks with appropriate quality, but rarely do I see the completion as an accomplishment. It's like changing a diaper: you know it's coming and it has to be done, but it can't be done in advance. When the task is done, well, it's simply done. Nothing more, nothing less. It's just something you do, albeit something that the party receiving the service is likely quite happy about. But this, like many tasks, is not a source of personal satisfaction.

A wonderfully insightful friend, hearing of my recently full agenda being completed, said "you have purpose in life and lots of it. Lucky you." My response? Ah, yes, lucky I am, but my job is really a sort of hobby. I've often compared it to Van Morrison's "Cleaning Windows," for me a double entendre if there ever was one. But these tasks are not my purpose in life, rather, they're more like my contribution to justify my time on the planet. My real purpose? I've always thought that I'd know it when I found it, so I guess I'm still searching, but I'm thinking it's probably the most basic of things. How do I know this? As a mystical king once said at the end of an exchange involving questions and quests:

"Well, you have to know these things when you're a king."

An installment in my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation.

An item in the StreetLight Data Accelerate eNews (4 April 2024) entitled "What is a stroad, and why is it so dangerous?" caught my eye, as did the tagline that this is a "uniquely North American phenomenon that wreaks havoc on safety, emissions, and the economy." Time for a closer look?

Nine Billion Names of Roads
First, road, or roadway, is a generic term used to describe any pathway, including game trails used by humans as long as 10,000 years ago, through the development of Incan, Roman, and other civilizations that formally developed road systems. The ubiquitous nature of roads is matched by the Nine Billion Names of Roads -- does the universe end when we list all nine billion names? With stroads, it now appears to be nine billion and one.
But roads are like roses -- by any other name -- and we have many names, including highways, freeways, expressways (and ramps), arterials, boulevards, parkways, avenues, streets, lane, cul-de-sacs, and alleys, to name a dozen. And there are various purposes that roads serve. Primarily, these are mobility and accessibility.

A Design Hierarchy
There is a long-standing functional classification system for these elements of transportation infrastructure that, colloquially, go by many names. The classification systems, while fairly consistent across various jurisdictions, have standard categories (but vary in the number of sub-categories). Proceeding from facility types that are defined as primarily providing mobility to those that are defined as primarily providing accessibility, we start with freeways and proceed to local streets.

1. Freeways are controlled access, high speed and high capacity roads such as freeways and expressways.
2. Arterials typically have lower speeds and capacities and are controlled by traffic signals, and include sub-categories such as principle, major, and minor arterials.
3. Collectors with even lower speed and capacities, serve to connect local streets to arterials (and may have sub-categories such as major and minor)
4. Local Streets, the category that generally using the term "street," are primarily designed to provide access to land use, and include facilities found in various development densities ranging from central business districts to small towns.

These facility types differ, by definition, in terms of speeds, capacities, access and traffic control, and institutional factors such as jurisdictional oversight and funding. Each of these facility types can be generically referred to as roads or roadways, but formal facility types carry with them a range of design and performance characteristics. Since the generic terms road and roadway are, well, generic, and not used formally in functional classifications, it will be used herein to mean just that -- any functional classification of a facility to provide mobility and access for traffic. I'll add that most sources include the designation "public access" or "public right-of-way." Basically, if you personally own the road and the land it is built on, then you can call it anything you want.

Note that there are about 5,000 cities in the U.S. with at least 5,000 residents, but many thousand more cities and towns, as well as thousands of counties and states, each of which may have some variation in facility types. But, to the best of my knowledge, few if any have anything called a stroad.

Streets and Roads, Sharrows and Stroads
What is a stroad? It's a portmanteau of street and road, and was coined in 2011 as a roadway that is a mix between a street and a road. First, it appears that road, as a generic term, includes street as a specific example, so strictly speaking a stroad is at best ill-defined, meaning a mix of a street with any type of road. But what is a street?

StreetLight Data's editorial team writes (28 March 2024) that streets are destinations, providing access to a variety of land uses. Yes, they certainly can achieve this goal and can do so in a non-motorized manner. But not all streets do this. In fact, most of them don't. And many of the facilities that Streetlight's editorial team considers "dangerous" roads also provide this access to activities ,albeit via car. In the former case, residents of such areas gain this accessibility to activities while, in suburban areas, those residents gain accessibility, not by going downtown but via accessing local "roads," not unlike some of the examples StreetLight wants to "find and fix."

There are certainly locations that are tailor-made for StreetLight's concept of a street and non-motorized activity access. And it makes sense that these areas might be pedestrian-oriented, as many city centers are in Europe (and some in the US). But these are not areas inflicted by so-called stroads. And for those who think a car is out-of-place on a pedestrian way, might not a pedestrian be out of place on a motorway (damn, it's a baker's dozen on the names). The question raised might be when should facilities be exclusive to a mode and when (and how) should a facility allow mixed modes.

I found a YouTube link that appears to smack of a progressive Truth Social, but these likely are well-meaning people with a germ of a good idea, but a good idea that with distorted message, using NewSpeak terms that often capitalize on a false binary. A good example, which I had not heard until today, is the word stroad. Sticking for the moment with the two terms "streets" and "roads" we easily see that false binary. If "roads" provide mobility between cities, while streets provide access to human activity would opponents of "stroads" accept core downtown areas becoming "streets" only with bike and pedestrian access only, but all other areas would be arterials focuses on vehicular traffic? Likely not because travel patterns are not restricted to core cities so those who prefer non-motorized transportation might be trapped in a prison of their own design.

Bikestrians
The video had a bicyclist moving rather quickly through a street with numerous pedestrians, but no cars, which raised a safety issue (one that my campus has needed to address). The same minds that question whether bikes are safe on stroads should ask whether pedestrians are safe around bikes in car-free zones. Oddly, it seems that bikes and scooters would actually work better mixed with cars and trucks than they do with pedestrians (perhaps that's why bikes and scooters have to follow traffic laws and in general utilize facilities designated for traffic. Another aspect of the video was the juxtaposition of what was described as a long-vacant retail building on a very busy corner of one or two "stroads." The bicyclist disingenuously asked why the property was vacant at such a busy corner. Take a basic course in land use economics and get back to me. Property use is a function of many considerations, not just transportation access.

Summary
With the exception of "stroad" being catchy, the generic term "road" should not be combined with "street." There exists an established hierarchy of road types, and the term "road" is not one of them. These facilities in question seem to blend streets (as defined in the overly narrow sense voiced by opponents of "stroads") and arterials, but even I could not come up with a portmanteau for that, not that we need one.

Street and road, and sharrow and stroad
Incantations we cast to goad
Are stroads problems that have to go
Or just a clever portmanteau

A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

The Truth Social feed I experienced was a mix of swaggering gun talk, typo-filled Bible Scripture, violent Biden bashing, nonsensical conspiracy theories, and more misguided memes about January 6th 'hostages,' trans satanists, and murderous migrants than anyone should be subjected to in one day. Or ever.

"Addressing climate change will not be particularly difficult for a system like that." Sam Altman
"The potential for AI to help scientists cure, prevent, and manage all diseases in this century."
Mark Zuckerberg

"According to international research ... those who feel a greater sense of safety, freedom, mobility and community and have strong relationships are more likely to be happy."

"encourage young couples to seek more accommodating housing outside
the capital so they can have children."

Note: I read this on 1 April 2024 and had to check to verify that it was actually posted a few days before.

According to the Washington Post (31 March 2024), by the end of 2024 autonomous big-rigs will be traveling on Texas highways without human oversight. Ten states currently have limits on autonomous vehicles but the rest either allow them or have no regulations in place. A SmartBrief for Civil Engineers reader's poll showed that 80 percent of respondents answered "No, not ready" when asked "Are US highways ready to host autonomous trucks?" My sense is that the highways themselves are ready but not the other drivers. But if it's to be tested, better to test it in Texas. As The Chicks sang back in 1998:

She needs wide open spaces, room to make her big mistakes" Susan Gibson

While impressed with the appearance of touch screen controls on many new, primarily electric vehicles, I have not been impressed with the user interface. Quite frankly, having driven for over half a century with an array of knobs, buttons, levers, and other analog controls, there will be a learning curve entirely different from simply the general placement of controls -- moving from clustered around the steering wheel to a centralized touch screen -- but more so the absence of tactile sensation when using a digital control device. I was thus glad to see that the European New Car Assessment Program plans to introduce new standards that:

"automakers will have to use separate physical buttons, dials or levers for crucial functions such
as turn signals, hazard lights, horns, windshield wipers and emergency calls in order to earn the
independent organization's top five-star safety rating."

Everyone's favorite post-Sagan astrophysicist, Neil deGrasse Tyson, pointed out a perturbation in astrology in an interesting conversation with Stephen Colbert. The conversation on "scientific inaccuracies in science fiction" was regarding the release of Dune Part 2. Tyson quote Mark Twain's "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please" before moving on, in a double segue, from Dune to a new JLo movie, and then to the topic du jour, the zodiac.

A fact that had escaped me, despite appearing for decades in many media sources, is that Earth actually travels past constellations as we follow the Sun's ecliptic, a path and physics upon which the Babylonians developed astrology 2,500 years ago. The Babylonians decided that twelve zodiac signs were neater than thirteen, which would have corresponded to the thirteen constellations that fell within 8 degrees north and south of the Sun's ecliptic. This may have reflected the 12 month solar calendar, so we have Libra, Scorpio, and Sagittarius but no Ophiuchus, the serpent-bearer (pronounced oaf-ih-YOU-kus).

Due to the Earth's axial precession (wobbling on its axis of rotation), the Sun is like a clock that lags about 15 minutes each year. In the 2,500 years since the Babylonians created the zodiac and defined what horoscopes are, the resulting spatial alignment has thrown the astrology calendar off by a month. Yes, it's not as if the stars that form these constellations are all the same distance from Earth (and so their highly imaginative forms would not appear recognizable from any other perspective), nor that the relative position of stars could somehow determine the behavioral characteristics of all humans born on a certain date, but if you do follow horoscopes, wouldn't this affect you? But there's more.

The Sun only spends a week crossing Scorpio but a month and a half in Virgo, about the same as 2,500 years ago (when the Babylonians discovered hallucinogens and created horoscopes as part of an ancient Tik Tok ritual), so, technically, Scorpio's window would last just seven days, with those born before November 23rd becoming Librans and anyone born after November 29th becoming an Ophiuchus. Basically, the start of all other signs would shift about a month.

I guess, strictly speaking, I'm a former Scorpio and now apparently a Libran. Of course, strictly speaking, it was not just the Babylonian's fondness for twelve but also real science that has been continuously tweaking all of this. But astrology is, as the horoscopes all say, for entertainment purposes only. For those who follow the zodiac, don't worry about we (former) Scorpios. As they say, astrology and astronomy are not the same thing. Well, duh. But astrology was based on astronomical observations. If created today, it would be quite different. I also note that in addition to the familiar Western astrology, there is also sidereal (or Vedic) astrology and now perhaps Ophiuchian astrology.

On a side note, I don't read horoscopes, but a few years ago I did the Zodiac, Love Languages, Myers-Briggs, and other assessments. I found that certain things I thought were true about me were, not surprisingly, true based on these tests. Statistically we call this confirmation bias. Last, I'll point out the inordinate presence of the number 12 in timekeeping, measurement, and music, as well as astrology, despite the fact that we have 10 digits. Also, 13 has never been a lucky number which, if you ask me, might be the real reason why those who follow the virtual stars don't want to change things.

In the LA Times Essential California eNews (8 April 2024) Ryan Fonseca reports:

"As of July, California's population fell to an estimated 38,965,000, down by 75,400
over 12 months, according to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau."

Several factors in population change are in play. Out-migration exceeding in-migration, lower birth rates and higher mortality rates (due to the pandemic and an aging population), and economic factors (the overall cost of living, housing availability, and higher interest rates), These factors, while valid, are not exclusive to California. Andrew Kouri (LA Times, 8 April 2024) reports that:

Preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau show building permits for new homes nationwide fell 12% in 2023 from the prior year and 7% in California. Drops were recorded in single-family homes ... as well as multifamily homes."

Sunday's LA Times Opinion piece (7 April 2024), "Tomorrowland? Hardly," suggests that the Tomorrowland ride Autopia "should look to the future." The question is, of course, "what future?" The opinion piece says:

"the ride showcases some of the most soul-sucking parts of modern life: gas-guzzling cars spewing smelly exhaust, bumper-to-bumper traffic and impatient drivers. "

"Why stop there? Disney could revamp Autopia to again imagine the next transportation innovations. How about incorporating electric bikes and scooters, self-driving cars and autonomous buses? These car alternatives point the way toward a cleaner, safer and more efficient means of travel."

Disneyland allows young people to have fun experiencing driving. Autonomous vehicles? Quite do-able on a fixed track but that would be at best marginally more interesting than most of the Fantasyland kiddie rides such as King Arthur's Carousel. Truly, that "why stop there" paragraph is one of the lamest I've ever read in the LA Times. Why not just have everyone stay home, while AI takes their jobs and Tik Tok takes their minds.

Attraction, infatuation
Contemplation took a back seat
Isolation, separation
You spoke by using your feet

I guess that I'm no better
I know that song's been sung
But the taste of what you did to me
Stays bitter on my tongue

Foolishness, benightedness
Darkness we did share
Condemnation, revocation
In hindsight still not clear

We've drawn each other through the mud
Is the jury out or hung
And the taste of what came in between
Stays bitter on my tongue

Apprehension, realization
Emotions start to surge
Aspiration, enlightenment
The path will soon emerge

I want to be a different man
Will the odds remain far-flung
To replace the taste that lingers still
With sweetness on my tongue

From Pink Floyd's Eclipse by Roger Waters (1973)

And all that is now
And all that is gone
And all that's to come
And everything under the sun is in tune
But the sun is eclipsed by the moon

In an editorial "Universities are smart to bring back the SAT and ACT" (18 March 2024), the LA Times expresses their support of standardized testing for college admissions. The editorial summarizes some of the arguments that led to the tests being dropped (the primary cause was the pandemic), foremost being the strong correlation with family affluence. The editorial counters with the claim that SAT scores are extremely effective at predicting whether students would succeed in college. Well, duh, the same affluence that leads to children from wealthy families getting support and better test scores will also produce applicants with a greater likelihood of finishing the program for which their parents are likely paying. Is there validity to the corollary that students with a lower likelihood of finishing college should not even be allowed to start?

Apparently, The University of California studied and concluded that standardized tests were more equitable than grades because grade inflation was more pervasive at affluent schools (UC has not yet reconsidered requiring standardized test scores). High school records provide student grades by subject area and these students can be tracked by scores on standardized tests (SAT and ACT, as well as AP exams, except for the few pandemic years) and by subsequent success in various institutions. Clearly, something like this has already been done if the claim that standardized tests were more equitable than grades. They may well be, but would bias introduced by family affluence apply to both regular grades and standardized tests?

The editorial also claimed that some Ivies found that "Making the tests optional was actually counterproductive" since their applicant pools became less diverse. Why? Apparently, and I cannot see the logic in this, because low-income students and students of color were less likely to apply even if they had good test scores, thinking they hadn't tested well enough." Why did they apply when scores were required? The editorial also claims that "teachers at more affluent schools have more time for writing letters of recommendation for college applications than teachers at low-income schools." Here I tend to agree but this is a bias that can be tested and controlled.

With the availability of college counseling, internet paper mills, and AI systems, another source of bias that must be addressed are college essays. Application materials that can be completed in advance with unlimited time are not valid samples of student potential (by the way, neither is athletic prowess). On one hand, students will have access to these same covert tools to improve scores but not knowledge once they are admitted to college. The same issues facing colleges, see for example A Human Turing Test (13 March 2024), are present in the college application process. Any arguments forwarded by a student, for admission to or for graduation from an academic program must be assessed in real time, person-to-person, regardless of the cost. Even if application materials remain "off-line," only real-time, in person assessment can serve as an acid test.

In the video How Humans Evolved Music, Michael Spitzer, a Professor of Music at the University of Liverpool, argues that primates, unlike birds and insects, never naturally evolved music. Spitzer describes humans as "flatlanders" who "inhabit a very narrow band of perceptual space," a musical space with a bipedalism origin. When we started to walk, we gained rhythm, and rhythm led to music (and, of course, much later the blues). With walking, our brain size tripled and we gained vocal abilities. Spitzer concludes that music is universal but that humans evolved to become:

"the great synthesizers [who] put together the rhythms of insects, the melody of birds,
[and] the gestural sociality of apes. Music is both inate and learned."

While the root of the word desert is the Latin desertus, meaning abandoned or lying in waste, the deserts in the U.S. are really anything but. Typically full of life, our deserts do fulfill the common meaning of the word, being very dry and thus with few plants. They are quite unlike some of the world's more familiar deserts such as the Sahara. I reluctantly accept the appropriation of the word desert for describing human environments that have some elements that are relatively less visible than nearby environments (for example, infrastructure or food deserts). What I don't like is that the term, which may initially draw attention, doesn't hold attention since real deserts are natural parts of the environment and not the result of human planning and decision making (or lack thereof).

Food deserts, infrastructure deserts, and transit deserts, and there are likely many more categories, indeed reflect issues with human planning and decision making. These public actions are typically the result of public resource limitations and virtually always exist in lower income areas. It's just the use of the term desert. I've spent time wandering deserts and have always been captured by the beauty that I hope will remain forever. These real deserts are also void of food, infrastructure, and transit, at least human-oriented, and that is exactly as they should stay. Let's find a better term for those areas that suffer from resource distribution problems.

* In David Lean's Lawrence of Arabia (1962), when asked "What is it, Major Lawrence, that attracts you personally to the desert?" his response was "It's clean."

Update: The European Supershine project is using the term "energy poverty" to describe cities that can't provide sufficient energy to meet heating and cooling demands for health and well-being. Another case of an anthropomorphism connecting physical systems to human demands.

In The Roots of Progress (23 February 2024), Jason Crawford provides selfish reasons for more humans.

"... more people means more outliers -- more super-intelligent, super-creative, or super-talented people, to produce great art, architecture, music, philosophy, science, and inventions. If genius is defined as one-in-a-million level intelligence, then every billion people means another thousand geniuses -- to work on all of the problems and opportunities of humanity, to the benefit of all."

Second, while a larger population can mean faster scientific, technical, and economic progress, it also means more demands om that progress and more competition for resources. I just don't buy the capitalist mantra of growth, growth, growth. Crawford says more investment leads to more R&D which leads to more surplus wealth to invest... a wonderful endless cycle. Wait. Surplus wealth? Surplus to who?

Along the same lines is Roots of Progress contributor Martin Boudry who says that not only is overpopulation not a problem but that "soon there will be too few humans." Despite my comments above, I doubt that it will be any time "soon." With dropping death rates came dropping birth rates. It was always about the difference, or survivorship rates. Why is this occurring? Because people have finite resources available to them, regardless of what potential resources the planet and the powers in control have available. Death, war, and famine are still three horsemen that are not yet controlled by the geniuses that we begotten.

Why are Crawford, Boudry, and others saying that there are "selfish reasons to want more humans?" Aren't we making enough?" While we're at 8 billion and growing, there are signs of slowing. With increases in wealth and health, there's no longer the need to have as many children for either spares or caretakers later in life. Who would have thought that both California and China would be shrinking? More importantly, why didn't proponents of growth anticipate this? Show me how to resolve today's issues and then I'll consider accepting more people, and the more problems that will follow.

Rural residents, unsurprisingly, travel more miles per day. At the other extreme, also unsurprisingly, New Yorkers travel significantly fewer miles per day (a range of 12-20 miles per day) than the national average of 42 miles per day. The mobility analytics platform Replica utilized anonymized mobile device data and other sources to estimate average miles traveled by all modes of travel for a typical spring weekday in 2023.

This was reported by Axios who also reported more workers living farther from work ("more than 1 in 20 workers live more than 50 miles from their job, up from fewer than 1 in 100 pre-pandemic") although most commutes haven't changed. It's the tails of the distribution. High-income earners that are living farther from work and the share of workers with relatively short commutes has increased compared to before the pandemic.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"This is the safest form of transportation ever created, whereas
every day on the nation's roads about a 737 full of people dies."

"The New York Times reported some owners of vehicles made by General Motors have been having a hard time getting car insurance. The reason? They unwittingly agreed to share their driving data with a third party."

"Fossil-fuel burning trucks spew alarming amounts of greenhouse gases, dangerous nitrogen oxides, lung-clogging particulate matter and a toxic stew of other pollutants. Getting rid of them will be costly -- nearly $1 trillion, according to an industry study released Tuesday."

"Perfect confidence is granted to the less talented as a consolation prize."

It is often suggested that if there were more women engineering faculty then more women would be drawn to engineering. I've never known any undergraduate engineering students who were drawn to a university based on its faculty gender distribution. There is always the perception, however, that regardless of where females go, many if not most engineering programs will be male dominated. But even if we wanted to achieve this measure of diversity, do we purge faculty that increasingly do not match the evolving diversity of any student body (with students being present for four years while faculty often are present for 30 plus years)? And remember, about 57 percent of undergraduate enrollments are female, so where are they over-represented?

From The Waste Land by T.S.Eliot:

"April is the cruelest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land,
mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain."

"Obtund" is proposed as a retort to those who have bastardized woke, in the same manner that liberal has been appropriated in a derogatory sense by the radical right. Woke simply means to be aware of injustices, whereas obtunded means a dulled level of consciousness and thus being unaware of injustices. Liberal simply means open to new ideas. Historically, most leaders, whether politically conservative or liberal, have been intellectually liberal. Listening to new ideas and being aware of equity issues does not mean that you must subscribe to them. A conservative can recognize the human elements of immigration but not support immigration for a broad variety of reasons, all without condemning those with differing opinions.

I remember arguments with my sister which often resulted in her clapping her hands over her ears and walking away saying "I'm not listening." Can you imagine a congressional representative doing so in a response to a tough query from the media? No, they'd just turn the question around and blame the woke side. How obtund.

Hearing about good people being duped by Me/Now into buying one of his $60 bibles (probably for sale outside the church he attends every Sunday) reminds me of a story from my childhood of Jesus driving away the money changers for turning his temple into a den of thieves.

As the season of reviewing the merit of faculty colleagues reaches an end, I had the expression "corresponding author" stuck in my head. I thought I knew what it meant; I verified that I did indeed. The corresponding author plays a critical role beyond the research per se by leading the research publication process. A few colleagues, however, objected when I said "what's the big deal about being corresponding author?" It's important, of course, but it's basically a necessary administrative task.

Authors and co-authors* are those who made a significant contribution to the work reported, in any or all of the conventional tasks of research and reporting. All authors must agree on when and where a paper is submitted for review. All authors review and agree on all versions of the paper at every stage of the production process (drafting, submission, revisions, and final proofs). All authors hold equal responsibility and accountability for the contents of the paper. Most journals now require a statement published in the paper regarding the specific contributions of each author to the range of research tasks including conception and design, data acquisition, analysis, and interpretation. This should clearly define who did what in research production.

If there is more than one author, then one author is designated as the corresponding author*. As the name suggests, when the paper is ready for submission to a journal, the corresponding author is identified as the one who will handle all communications with the journal's editor, for obvious reasons of efficiency. These tasks are primarily administrative tasks. This does not mean that the corresponding author, especially if this is also a senior author, does not choose to take a more active role in any requested revisions. However, journals expect that all authors fully participate in the revisions. In addition to the obvious administrative efficiency benefits for the journal, a corresponding author benefits from networking with editorial boards. But it is not research per se.

* Note the definitions provided are drawn from materials found on the sites of major publishers in the field of transportation including Elsevier, Taylor and Francis, and several others.

In the LA Times' Essential California eNews (18 March 2024), Ryan Fonseca asks whether the state goal for greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction is achievable. Since 2010, state GHG emissions have decreased just 11.5 percent below 1990 levels. After the 2020 pandemic reductions, the state's carbon emissions increased by 3.4 percent the next year, with car travel increasing and public transit remaining low.

California's goal is, by 2030, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent compared with 1990 levels. According to California Green Innovation Index annual report, the rate at which emissions are being reduced puts us more than 15 years behind schedule, which may delay our reduction goal until 2047. The California Air Resource Board maintains that the state is on track to meet the 2030 goal. Perhaps Fonseca put it best:

"So, depending on whom you ask, we're on track or about 17 years behind. But there seems to be agreement that it will take an incredibly ambitious and sustained effort to eventually reach that goal."

Few issues have ruffled more feathers in more ways than diversity. An article by Celia de Anca and Salvador Aragon, The 3 Types of Diversity That Shape Our Identities, expands upon commonly used attributes of social and demographic differences such as race, ethnicity, gender, social class, physical attributes, and religious or ethical values. In the article, de Anza and Aragon expand this to include the triad:

1. demographic diversity: gender, race, etc. ("identities of origin");
2. experiential diversity: affinities, hobbies, and abilities ("identities of growth");
3. cognitive diversity: how we think and view our environments ("identities of aspiration")

In the age of dating apps, meeting someone is simple, but meeting the one is a simple twist of fate.

People tell me it's a sin
To know and feel too much within
I still believe she was my twin
But I lost the ring
She was born in spring
But I was born too late
Blame it on a simple twist of fate
Dylan (1974)

A Day Late and a Dollar Short
In the LA Times, Colleen Shalby reports on California's long-running high speed rail efforts (21 March 2024) with the headline "Despite some progress, state's high-speed rail is $100 billion short and many years from reality."

"But how -- and if -- it will ever live up to that promise to connect Los Angeles to San Francisco by train in less than three hours still remains unknown. While some progress has been made in the last 15 years, the timeline for completion has moved back by more than a decade and cost estimates have grown by the billions."

Penny-wise and Pound-foolish
This expression refers to an inordinate focus on minutia while missing the big picture, but some may apply this in the reverse as a justification to keep pouring money into a questionable endeavor because they feel the end game will justify the added expenses. Project proponents point to benefits to the construction industry, economic incentives to the central valley, and factors not directly related to the project. An equivalent level of expenditures dedicated to digging up massive volumes of dirt from one side of SR-99 and piling it on the other side, only to move it back to fill in the hole, would have the same overall economic effect on the area.

Putting the Cart before the Horse
Even proponents suggest that California's high-speed rail project is a classic case of putting the cart before the horse, moving into the construction phase before completing land acquisition and other pre-construction tasks. Is it time to reassess the original idea?

"The high-speed rail peer-review group has recommended the Legislature commission an "independent review of the economic and financial justification for the project" before "recommitting" to the first phase."

Some may refer to this post as comments on the radicalization of American politics. But it's not radicalization. There are advantages to the extreme behaviors that characterize political speech and support over the past 8-10 years. These are behaviors that the political powers and the media claim are controlled by the voters. This is not the case. By elevating the complexity of public participation, a process that benefits those who obfuscate, deny, misrepresent, lie, and otherwise abuse the powers that have been bestowed upon them, the potential of the general public to reset accpetable behavior via voting has been driven to zero. This is made all the worse by the growing blind alegiance to political parties over true leadership. The cognitive dissonance that results when someone is faced with behaviors that they believe are wrong but they feel powerless to change will result in them checking out of rational thought and buying into the belief system that resolves that complexity, whether it be blind allegiance to a person, a religion, or a political platform. That is where we are. The only possibility for resetting our system is for those few true leaders to point out that our emperors have no clothes and that there is a better way. Until that happens, "Here I am, stuck in the middle with you."

* Stuck in the Middle with You by Joe Egan and Gerald Rafferty

"Caltrans and LA Metro are evaluating alternatives to convert existing high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes to dynamically priced, high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes, also called Express Lanes, or add a second HOV lane in both directions on Interstate 10 from the current Express Lanes end point at I-605 to the Los Angeles and San Bernardino County line." See Project Overview. Options include A1. No Build, A2. Existing HOV lane converted to a HOT lane; A3. Alt A2 plus add an additional HOT lane; and A4. Add an additional HOT lane. It is good to see that double HOV lanes are an option (HOT lanes are virtually always paired but HOV lanes rarely are).

Although in general I do not subscribe to standard induced demand arguments, I do agree with the non-profit Active SGV argument that "freeway expansions worsen air quality, displaces communities and have proven to be ineffective in reducing traffic congestion." Theirs is not merely a public comment but a public demand that full analyses be completed to assess the true cost of these likely outcomes for project alternatives. But I have a caveat. The lanes themselves do not directly worsen air quality, and can reduce congestion; rather, it's what people usually incorrectly refer to as induced demand that can produce these impacts.

Induced demand is primarily the result of three forces: (1) regional growth; (2) accommodation of suppressed demand; and (3) diverted traffic. First, Southern California is no longer growing although internal population distributions may contribute to increased demand in some locations. Second, given existing congestion levels, there is likely some suppressed demand (trips not being currently made due to cost or time). Third, whenever capacity is added, traffic will adjust to new paths, times, modes, and destinations (each which is reflected in standard forecasting models). In a low congestion environment absent of the first two forces, people do not see new capoacity and travel "for the hell of it." In a high congestion environment, all bets are off because any if not all of these factors are in play. This can and should be comprehensively tested.

So why am I arguing against this project? First, it's equivalent to a permanent taking of public right-of-way for those who can afford to pay, arguably little different than the historical location of freeways in underrepresented urban areas. It is extremely ironic that for the past decade, HOV lanes have been deemed degraded, allowing these equitable choices to be replaced with appropriately deemed Lexus Lanes.

But here's the real kicker. Where induced demand may actually exists, it's with HOT or Express Lanes. Such a transportation capacity increase will guarantee that those willing to pay will always get a free-flow option (albeit at a price) which will serve as little restraint to traveling by car to any destination, at any time. These vehicles will travel further, increasing Vehicle Miles Traveled, regardless of capacity restraints on the non-tolled lanes. The tolls may eventually cover the bonds to pay for the widening/extension, but these tolls will not compensate for the permanently lost potential of this right-of-way for more equitable purposes.

Professor Yuki Oyama of Japan's Shibaura Institute of Technology developed a model (11 March 2024) to help cities map pedestrian pathways via a global-local model for path choices. The model considers attributes that influence pedestrian path choices, with Oyama noting that:

"Traditional route choice models typically assume that travelers mainly have global preferences such
as using the shortest path. However, in reality, travelers locally perceive and respond to different
attributes of a path and capturing this behavior has been challenging."

This reminds me of an example of path finding for less-intelligent creatures. On an agar plate shaped like the Iberian peninsula, with piles of oat flakes representing cities, the growth patterns of the slime mold Physarum polycephalum successfully mapped the road systems of Spain and Portugal. When presented with multiple food sources, Physarum polycephalum extends the shortest path problem to the complex transportation problem. Biologically, the slime mold apparently minimizes cytoplasmic transfer distance while spanning as many sources of nutrients as possible. Physarum polycephalum does not have a nervous system but perhaps I need to rethink my attribution as less-intelligent than marmots and humans.

I understand the desire for Transit Oriented Development (TOD). This desire is driven by the environmental concern of climate change, although electric vehicles and green energy are addressing this without the need for significant public policy changes. I also understand concerns regarding housing affordability, and the interest in combining strategies to resolve climate change and housing affordability. But I'm not sure that an end goal of more conventional transit use is the best way to resolve either of these worthy objectives.

Daniel C. Vock in Route Fifty (12 March 2024) asks "Why is it so hard to build housing near transit stops?"

"American communities added nearly nine times as many housing units far away
from transit stations from 2000 to 2019 as they did near those stations."

Consider the total number of fixed rail stations that exist in growing areas in need of housing. Here, consider primarily urban rail systems (heavy, light, and commuter rail, but not bus operations with flexible routing but possibly BRT if there are fixed stations). Many such stations are located in areas that have already been developed. The article suggests that local government obstacles exist, such as zoning and land use controls, with the intent to obstruct transit-oriented development. Examples that are provided focus on commuter rail and I won't address the "duh" point that a high portion of such suburban stations are in predominantly white, affluent areas which do not want dense affordable housing. What's needed is an independent study of not just "available land" near such stations but of long standing government policy that has fostered the development of such suburbs, and the financial commitment of residents, before changing the horse midstream. And remember, you can lead a person to affordable transit-oriented housing, but you can't make them ride.

See also: Housing Irony (14 November 2023); Progressives in Suburgatory (15 February 2023); Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (7 October 2021); and Paine-less Common Sense (8 June 2019)

The rising importance of gig workers has been especially notable as Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft grew to prominence based on an app, the use of gig workers with their own cars, and a massive amount of venture capital. Rides were subsidized for years and now as prices have increased and the firms approach profitability the question now is "what about all those gig workers?"

Noah Bierman writes in the LA Times (14 March 2024) that critics are blasting Biden for taking "a destructive California idea national" for gig workers. The fundamental question is whether these workers are employees, and thus subject to conventional employee benefits, or are they indeed gig workers.

"San Francisco's city attorney last month reached the kind of settlement many gig workers have been seeking for years: An app-based hospitality company called Qwick agreed to reclassify thousands of bartenders, servers and dishwashers as employees, giving them back wages and, for the first time, sick pay and other legal benefits."

"For labor advocates, the most important aspect of the settlement is that the workers will be classified as employees, giving them rights to full overtime, wages and benefits, the first known time a modern gig company has agreed to such a reclassification, according to Veena Dubal, a law professor at UC Irvine."

"The statement noted that the rule does not apply the standard used in California and several other states to determine a worker's status. That standard presumes workers are employees unless the employer can meet a three-part test, including that their duties take place outside the normal course of business."

Under California's ABC test, applied by the employer, a worker is only an independent contractor if they meet all three parts of the test:

1. The worker is free from the control and direction of the hirer in relation to the performance of the work;
2. The worker performs work that is outside the usual course of the hirer's business; and
3. The worker is customarily engaged in an independently established trade, occupation, or business of the same nature as the work performed for the hirer.

Biden's trying to do something similar to California's policy at the federal level. We're still stuck on this binary representation. While we finally may be getting over the concept of working in an office for 40 hours, replacing it with hybrid and work-from-home schedules, we still are confused whether all gig workers are conventional employees. A conventional employee typically benefits for working fixed hours, often at a fixed location, and receiving fixed employment benefits. A gig worker is often drawn to flexible schedules and also sometimes does not need benefits (the gig might be a second job). There is likely greater variation in the nature of work for gig workers than there is for conventional employees. A systematic comparison of benefits and costs, for employers and employees alike, is needed. If we delay in resolving this issue, then the various services that employ these workers will be impacted.

See related posts: Uber, Lyft, and Cheap Thrills (12 June 2022) regarding increasing prices, Raining Cats and Dogs (22 October 2021) about changing TNC economics, as well as Sometimes the Cart Can Come First (10 January 2020) and The Gig Is Up? (14 January 2019).

A PhD student recently linked the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM), the Household Activity Program Problem (HAPP), and other tools as part of a research project dubbed Autonomicity. An objective was to explore the potential benefits of autonomous delivery fleets to reduce the time individuals allocate to shopping activities. Interesting, but my conjecture is that the complexity of human behavior cannot be represented by a complex modeling framework such as that proposed. Yes, this may be somewhat counter-intuitive.

Study results, including reduced time allocated to out-of-home and in-vehicle travel time, first must be broken down by (at least) worker versus non-worker, and probably by household size, gender, and other variables to examine any distributional effects. Ideally, different spatial geographies also would be considered because real differences would be expected in walk-able urban areas versus vehicle-dominated suburbs. A fundamental question thus remains: how is saved time utilized? A fundamental premise is that people want to participate in activities, including activities out-of-home, and thus they exhibit mobility. If a system change increases flexibility in travel and activity behavior, what does this imply regarding the overall use of time?

It would seem that individuals oriented toward mobility will maintain a level similar to behavior before the system change, perhaps accessing more or further destinations, effectively inducing more travel demand. Some people think that added freeway capacity induces travel, but that more likely reflects growth in population, employment, or income, shifts in traffic (components such as mode or route), or realization of suppressed demand. Here we have a paid service that supposedly will directly reduce trips and travel time. What activity memories would be triggered by this Proustian realization?

In a world characterized by fairly stable trip rates and travel time budgets, it would seem that any such savings in time would be replaced by other activities and travel. Unlike capacity, which can be increased (or decreased) in an absolute sense, time is fixed. Everyone has 24 hours, 7 days per week. Unlike accessibility, time can't be transferred. The real question is how is this time allocated. In a theoretical study, Burns (1979) found that policies that increased temporal flexibility were better than those which increased travel speed at increasing accessibility, supporting the argument that saved time may simply become reallocated time. The implications of these research perspectives are far more profound than this study suggests.

The Federal Aviation Administration has apparently granted several companies permission to operate beyond visual lines of sight, which will likely lead to an expansion of drone-delivery services by retailers, restaurants, and other business, according to the Wall Street Journal (8 March 2024). Not sure how this will scale up, but given the tech-driven laziness of the American consumer, I for one am anticipating a dron-olition derby over our now peaceful neighborhoods. My first order is going to be a baseball bat, which will be used to test the level of AI behind their delivery system, as well as the airspeed of the drones.

Daydream: It's not the last mile, but more the last hundred feet...
From his desk, Joe placed his order for a latte for what he hoped would be the last time. For years he has saved valuable work time by not having to leave his desk for a coffee break, or lunch, or virtually anything. It was pretty easy just to get a text that the drone was dropping off his latte right outside the office's front door and to take the short 2-minute walk down the hall, down the stairs, and out the front door, where he would get his latte lowered from the delivery drone. It used to be even easier, when those two-minutes didn't first need a 1-minute stretch from sitting at his desk for two hours straight, not to mention when his delivery was the only one suspended outside the office's front door. He had to admit that, especially on a sunny day, it was often difficult to determine which drone was delivering his latte. Now he relied on associates to correct him when he chose the wrong one.

Starting on Monday, however, there wouldn't be any more drones delivering his latte to his office, because he was now assigned to work remotely at his home. On one hand, it would be a lot easier getting to his front door and not being confused about the number of drones overhead. On the other hand, he had a perfectly good coffee machine in his home (and a friend told him that she was testing a Roomba-like device to deliver coffee right to her home office desk. Joe thought that would be great. Unfortunately, Joe's office was rapidly replacing human employees with bots that did the job more efficiently and didn't need any latte breaks. He didn't yet know when he would be let go but it didn't bother him. He didn't really like his job that much and, quite frankly didn't really like lattes either.

March 17th is St. Patrick's Day, a day when anyone who wants to be Irish can be. This apparently included the good saint himself. According to the AP Patrick was not actually Irish. Based on his own writings, he was born in Britain, enslaved in Ireland, escaped back to Britain where he was trained as a priest, and returned to Ireland in the 5th century to promote Christianity. He was much later declared Ireland's patron saint, with the selected March 17th saint's day reflecting his date of death. By the way, it is generally believed that there were never snakes in Ireland to be driven out by Patrick or anyone else. And for all this, on this date, we drink green beer.

It makes no difference how far into the future one looks, at least in the future depicted in film. If the plot calls for a character to be immersed in darkness, on an alien planet, in an abandoned ship, or out in the middle of night, that character, regardless of the level of technology that got them in their predicament, will only have a regular flashlight, something that you had as a kid, to shine the narrowest beam of light on whatever may be hiding in the shadows. Wouldn't one think that with the technology to cross the heavens, one would have a better way to enlighten the hell?

Okay, this is more deeply troubling than I had first imagined. I never had a problem with 8-foot ants in the desert due to nuclear testing, but zombies? Really? Dead people, half-rotted, that still have enough brains and energy to (usually but not always slowly) catch non-zombies and somehow eat their brains. And to what aim? And what about all those giant creatures, especially huge worms that slither underground on Arrakis or Star War asteroids: what do they eat to get so big? Then again, I didn't have a problem with space whales that can communicate with humans and negotiate hyperspace, maybe because they feed on some sort of gas/plasma in space. And what about droids? They're wonderful but why do humans occasionally need to sacrifice themselves to save others by performing some action that requires them to be in a particularly dangerous place when a replaceable droid could easily do it?

Yes, I realize that these are all plot devices, but why does this make me feel like such a tool?

A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"Usually, when people think they're multitasking, they're actually
switching their attention back and forth between two separate tasks."

"Citation rings, which have existed for decades, now exploit the mega-journals' quick and easy peer-review processes to funnel thousands of references to their collaborators. The result is a distortion of scholarly-citation indexes and impact-factor scores that allow mediocre scholarship to appear to be much more influential than it is -- for the right price for the journal, of course."

"It was a real strong year for us, and that's really not just a testament to the hard work of our staff,
but testament of the growing reputation of the campus."

Tech billionaires have bought-up 50,000 acres of farmland for an estimated $900 million for California Forever, their planned Holy Grail of a "utopian" community of 50,000 (growing to as many as 400,000 people) in Northern California. Occupying the center of a rectangle with vertices defined by Sacramento, 60 miles west to Santa Rosa, 40 miles south to San Francisco, 60 miles east to Stockton, and 40 mile north back to Sacramento, the new city, if approved, is planned to comprise "walkable middle class neighborhoods with homes we can afford."

"A bird's eye view of proposed Bay Area utopian community" was the subject of an article by Melody Gutierrez in the LA Times (9 March 2024). On one hand, if people with too much money want to help those who don't have enough, then maybe a new community could be the way to go. On the other hand, there are reasons why the investors have too much money so what's their real quest? Are they really seeking the Holy Grail in Fairfield, California? For more utopian dream quests, see: Bright Lights, (Not So) Big City (18 November 2023).

Belated Update (19 March 2024)
Last Fall I read an LA Times column by Joel Kotkin and Wendall Cox (24 September 2023) about California Forever, but failed to incorporate, as their title suggested "What we can learn about housing from tech moguls' exurban utopia." The project breaks from official efforts to address the State's housing crisis via increased urban densification. Kotkin and Cox, longtime observers of cities and transport, offer some insights:

1. Despite revised state housing policy, California's housing markets remain among the least affordable.
2. To afford a SOCal house at the median price today, an annual income of $180,000 is needed.
3. California has consistently lagged in construction of both single-family and multi-family housing
4. Studies have shown that preferences for single-family homes cross every demographic, with mulit-family homes viewed as decreasing property values, increasing crime rates, lowering school quality, increasing traffic, and decreasing desirability
5. California's urban density focus runs counter to the national trend of remote work and low density moves.

The Turing Test was proposed by Alan Turing in 1950 as a test of a machine's (AI) ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to that of a human. A Human Turing Test is proposed as a test of a human's (I) ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to that of a recognized intelligent human.

The process of AI system (machine) learning is not that much different from the process of intelligent system (human) learning. The real difference, besides the relative speed of learning, is what is done with the information gained. A paper or other assignment, whether generated by a human by traditional methods or generated by a bot with AI methods, holds essentially zero value beyond building a knowledge base. It's what can be done with that knowledge base. The only way to assess whether a human has reached some level of understanding, if not mastery, of knowledge, including the ability to synthesize, apply, and expand that knowledge, is via real-time, in person (human to human) assessment. Whether the products are exams, reports, or other course deliverables, these benchmarks must be assessed when being actively created, applied, or summarized. Any work done by a student outside of an evaluators senses can be part of the student's learning process but cannot be part of the evaluation of the student's comprehension.

... if you can find any. Who knew that Hydrox pre-dated the derivative Oreos? Or that Oreos, introduced on 12 March 1912, are now about ten percent of all cookie purchases. The original, Hydrox, introduced four years earlier, was discontinued in 2003 only to come back in 2015, but they still can be hard to find. An interesting overview can be found at The Hustle. Try some. You won't be sorry.

In a substack posts (28 February 2024), Matthew Yglesias asks "Can we NIMBY cars instead of houses?" To his credit, he couches his bet with "An idea that might be dumb but could be great." It probably is, and it probably won't be. You're familiar with the term NIMBY: a catchy but pejorative term that after all only describes basic human behavior. Selfishness is genetically-coded, not altruism, and who in the hell wants anything that they did not actively choose in their backyards? I've taken liberty in naming this NIMPS, or Not In My Parking Spot.

Yglesias made me remember that not everyone who's pro-housing is a bleeding heart liberal. Many are bleeding brain conservatives who see growth as the end game for all endeavors. We need more housing so we can have more people for ever increasing sales and services in an endless appetite of capitalism. Yglesias also made me remember what there are not a lot of people trained in transport economics working in transportation planning and engineering. Admitting that a downside of more housing growth is traffic congestion, Yglesias claims that there is "a well-known solution to traffic jams -- congestion pricing." Well known as in Singapore, London, and a few other exceptions to the rule. Why would one encourage growth by building more housing, so more people are interacting in economic transactions of working, shopping, and investing, but then charge them if they want to do just that? It's like encouraging your children to eat non-stop but make then wear tighter and tighter belts. Is there any logic to this? Unfortunately, yes. Somebody is going to make a lot of money.

Essentially, Ygelsias says we should address the housing affordability crisis by making travel unaffordable. He thinks that the primary objection to growth is traffic congestion. Even if that were true, what does he think is the primary objection to changing housing laws? NIMBY proponents like things the way they are, primarily because they have invested their wealth in a life style that involves housing and cars. Right or wrong in the view of some opponents, the truth is that the entire economic system has fostered exactly this result.

Yglesias appears to be proposing NIMBY for cars, but I think he means the opposite. NIMBY forces in housing are trying to stop increased density in their neighbors, thus, Not In Their Back Yards. NIMBY for cars would suggest a parallel interpretation that says: I like the way things are which means using current housing densities to control other levels of activity and travel (including parking and congestion). We can refer to such proponents of the status quo as NIMPS: Not In My Parking Spot. Yglesias continues:

"Instead of making it unreasonably expensive and inconvenient to add new housing to in-demand areas, couldn't we make it expensive and inconvenient to add new cars?

Yglesias fawns a bit too excessively of Don Shoup's "masterwork" The High Cost of Free Parking and "precious" free parking. I'm not sure how Shoup will feel when in a world without cars we start charging for bike use and parking (What? Bike use and parking are free? Well, at least they have to obey all traffic laws. What? They often don't and it's never enforced?) By the way, increasing parking costs will, not surprisingly, reduce travel as well as retail expenditures. The program that Yglesias mentioned that allows residents with grandfathered, free parking permits to sell these permits and even rent their guaranteed free space to "make some money?" Should we do the same for public parks and municipal services? You know, financial barriers to full participation, like Yglesias argues currently exists for housing. Sounds a lot like a resident of Manhattan being paid each year to not grow peanuts on land they own in Georgia. Only capitalism would come up with something like that as "reasonable."

What's odd is that Yglesias seems fine with proposing restrictions that only apply to new residents. Existing residents get free parking permits, chew gun, and other sorts of benefits that pretty much everyone already enjoys. Basically, this is a "Get Out of Jail Free" card so they can always have a car and drive. But the plan is that there are no longer any restrictions of what's built next door. I guess Yglesias wants to ban stuff that he doesn't like and to encourage stuff that he does like. It does not take more than a modicum of reflection to see that Yglesias stopped being even partially right with his articles sub-title: "An idea that might be dumb ..."

Regarding LA, I think that they've solved the housing crisis with plans to bus homeless people to Yglesias's neighborhood in DC and have them live in inexpensive cars (LA will cover the cost of the required COEs). Yglesias ends his "dumb/great" idea with the odd statement that he "generally" tries "to avoid coming up with new ideas." He should have RIBMFed* it, but he then doubles down by saying his idea is known:

"to work in London, Singapore, Oslo, and Stockholm without any zany unintended consequences."

Those who visit a Reddit post from "fuckcars" are likely people who are not enamored with the automobile and who likely self-refer as associated with walkability, mixed land use, and many other (on some levels) good things but prefer not to draw attention to what at root often appears to be an extreme hatred of sprawl, single family homes, big box retail, and all other things associated with what they often deem "the car culture." I was looking for fodder for what will be tomorrow's blog post.

The Reddit post in question was a before-after picture of a typical, suburban single family home (SFH), in what appeared to be a predominantly rural area (based on road and right-of-way characteristics, set-backs, lack of sidewalks, and the absence of other houses nearby). And then a 6-story apartment building appears next door.

To summarize, the responses to the post, ignoring those who are subjectively trolling, include comments which are not supportive of such development that changes the land use character of a neighborhood, including the removal of trees and an absence of new landscaping. Responses also include those who appear to embrace the change in theory but not in practice, focused on the absence of elements of walkability, such as sidewalks or bike lanes, which effectively promotes more car usage.

There were also comments regarding the potential "windfall" land value capture if one sells their SFH to the next apartment developer. A comment that can't go un-ignored is "You don't want to have a neighbor? Then go live in the middle of buttfuck Alabama. Boom, problem solved." An casual observer might conclude that the owner of the house pictured already did precisely that, but then the Buttfuck Apartments opened for business next door.

There are some fundamental truths in growth and development. First, an area's decision-makers change over time so it's often difficult to maintain a neighborhood's character. This is why exclusionary zoning developed. This of course is labeled NIMBY by those not predisposed to maintaining an area's character, and common sense by most others. Second, if you want to promote walkability and livable communities, then a master land use plan is needed (if not required) and leap-frogging unplanned, dense development should not be allowed. Simply put, if you don't want to promote more car usage, then don't allow dense development in outlying areas. If you do, you are essentially accelerating sprawl (a related topic that features similar tradeoffs between property rights, quality of life expectations, and well-planned communities).

Any reasonable planned community can accommodate any and all of various development patterns. I've heard people refer to the City of Irvine as boring and overly planned, but there are SFH neighborhoods for various income levels, many levels of density for multiple family development, elements of walkability, extensive bike trails, and little if any traffic congestion. It ain't perfect, but at least planners have thought about development and its impacts. But there are other perspectives. See tomorrow's post: Take 2. NIMPS.

There is greater familiarity with the Seven Deadly Sins (pride, greed, wrath, envy, lust, gluttony, and sloth) than with the Seven Graces. While a goodbye in a relationship may result from the deadly sins, a recovery could benefit from the seven graces. Love is a willful illusion. It is transitory. Like life itself, love too dies. The graces can be a salve to one's soul.

1. Fortitude: Love's Lost Property
Fortitude is courage in pain or adversity. In a review of an album by Three Colours Dark, Rob Fisher wrote:

"When things fall apart in the relationships of trust and love we build with others, then love's lost property is not just a loss of something in the quality of love itself: it is the loss of ourselves as well. We become the lost property of a relationship, abandoned, wounded, scarred and cut adrift."

2. Knowledge: Lost or Never Had?
Knowledge encompasses information and skills acquired through experience or education, especially in a relationship:

"Is love the only thing that after you lose it, you doubt you ever had it? When I lose my keys,
it's like, maybe I never had them. I was letting myself into my house with lies ..." Isabel Hagen

3. Piety: Does Love Exist?
Piety reflects dutifulness, obedience, deference, duty, and respect. Are such metaphysical qualities all about faith? All relationships have elements of the unknown and the unknowable, thus all relationships are based on faith, as interpreted in one's mind, combining experience and expectations. Is faith the fundamental yet vague truth of existence?

"And though I walk home alone, my faith in love is still devout." Morrissey

4. Reverence: A Good Guy
Reverence is the deep respect for someone or something. One Hoda Mallone (LA Times 3 March 2023):

"The hardest thing to explain was that my ex was always a good guy and a great dad."

5. Understanding: Love or Understanding?
Understanding is the sympathetic awareness of other's feelings; the state of being tolerant and forgiving.

"Perhaps one did not want to be loved so much as to be understood." George Orwell

6. Counsel: Three Envelopes
Counsel is advice, especially that given formally. Paraphrased from a now forgotten joke:

Everyone should be given three envelopes at the start of any relationship. At some point, no matter how hard you try, you will be stuck with no apparent way out. Open the first envelope and read to your partner: "It's not my fault." It probably is but promise you will work on it. Even if you do, soon you will once again be stuck with no apparent way out. Open the second envelope and read to your partner: "We really need to reorganize our lives together." This is true but at best it will buy you time, and soon you will once again find yourself stuck with no way out. Open the third envelope and read to yourself the message that says: "Prepare three envelopes." Leave them for your ex's next partner.

7. Wisdom: Lessons Learned
Wisdom reflects a soundness of actions or decisions that in turn reflect the application of experience, knowledge, and judgment over time.

1. Listen better, speak less. Tell them you hear them even if you don't understand.
2. Don't offer advice unless they ask (and they probably won't ask and probably don't need it).
3. Communicate. You sense something is wrong but no amount of ignorance or dumb questioning will help.
4. Surprise them. Surprises are not always well received but their absence will be noted, but not shared.
5. Give each other time and space, but make time together, especially homecoming, special.
6. Engage in a passionate endeavor, shared or not, that broadens each of your lives.
7. A point may come when they decide they've had enough and are leaving. They won't change their mind.

By the way, March 9th is National Get Over It Day.

In an article in Vox, Marin Cogan takes a comprehensive look at distracted driving in the age of cell phones, addressing questions such as: What are the impacts of distracted driving? Is there supporting data? How universal is the problem? Is it getting worse? How can the problem be addressed?. You can start by reading Cogan's article (and try to do this when you're not driving).

The biggest impact of distracted driving is, of course, increased traffic fatalities, and an increasing proportion involving pedestrians. Cogan provides the following:

1. Over 3,500 fatalities are estimated to be due to distracted driving, but that number is likely undercounted.
2. In conjunction with insurance companies, Cambridge Mobile Telematics (CMT) offers a app that measures mobile phone behavior while driving, including vehicle speed and phone use, with 10 million current users.
3. Data suggested that phone motion and screen interaction while driving increased about 20 percent between 2020-2022. "By almost every metric CMT measures, distracted driving is more present than ever on US roadways."
4. Drivers interacted with their phones on nearly 58% of trips in 2022 and over a third of phone distractions occurred at speeds over 50 mph.

In Lessons learned from 70 years of building cities (5 February 2024), Sasaki, an interdisciplinary architecture, planning, and design firm, considers "the future of building cities":

"While we can't predict what will be, we do know the future is plural; the needs of cities are as diverse as their scale, climate, economy, governance, and culture."

"Cities are not just reflections of the present, but also a result of histories that are dynamic and layered. We can't approach planning and design from a singular perspective; no two cities are alike. As we shape the shared environments of our cities, we're also working to understand what urban life can look like through diverse perspectives."

In Latin the word for stillness is silentium meaning 'silence and immobility', an odd juxtaposition in a city that never sleeps. Stillness and togetherness, in theory, bring two concepts to mind, one being individual and one shared. Connection can come individually via intentional stillness and self-reflection as is characteristic of various forms of yoga and meditation. In long-term relationships, sitting in matching chairs as the sun goes down is a form of stillness and togetherness (although the direction of causality is unclear). As the number of entities increases to the size of a city, can there be stillness and togetherness? Is each of these essentially an opiate to soothe the savage breast?

In reference to Greenacre Park in New York City, we read "The park is made for people; it's human-scaled." Does this imply that the city is not? How much does form truly follows function?

Form and function are strongly related, especially in biological evolution. In human enterprise, not as much. When form dominates, the result is art. When that art also needs to function for a entity's survival, whether it be biology or building, then function takes on increasing importance. Form follows function, Louis Sullivan once said, although I agree more so with Frank Lloyd Wright's rejoinder "Form and function should be one."

Years ago in a USC seminar for an architecture project, I commented that the design seemed to be sacrificing function for form. It was one of two occasions when I made a comment in front of a room full of people when several attendees not only objected but stood up and loudly objected. For some unknown reason these faculty and students, all of whom had degrees in architecture, assumed I was saying that only function was important when what I was really saying that function was a necessary condition. A design that does not meet functional requirements, regardless of the level of beauty in form, was a failed design. In a similar manner, a design that only fulfilled functional requirements could also be considered a failure, but this is more subjective (think tilt-up building designs often featured in big box retail and warehouses). I explained my position and they sat down.

The second instance was even more of a misunderstanding. I was presenting a proposal from UCI's Committee on Educational Policy to the full Academic Senate on changing the then campus degree requirement of four years of a language other than English to three years, for consistency with the then current policy for all other UC campuses. I presented the example where someone who was UC eligible and starts in engineering at UCI with only three years of a language often would wait until their final year to complete the fourth year since there were few if any opportunities for a time-intensive course in the first three years in engineering programs. My specific example referred to our undergraduate program in Civil Engineering where electives in the structural engineering area required the completion of two years of both math and science as well as seven prerequisite courses in structural analysis and design. I erred in referring to a characteristic of many if not most engineering programs as having greater "depth." I of course was referring to the fact that electives were buried three years "deep" in the program. I was certainly not referring to intellectual depth, but a half dozen faculty members who stood up and loudly objected to what they inferred was my meaning thought otherwise. They sat only after I was able to continue with my next sentence, defining my use of "depth." Ironically, their mistaken objection may have been the critical factor that the proposal needed to pass.

These are examples of form and function interacting, although apparently not by design.

From UCI in the News (4 March 2024). It's not always the headline; sometimes it's how it's received.

The Rent Is Too Damn High
Orange County named the hardest place to find an apartment in California KCBS/KCAL (1 March 2024) reports that moving to Orange County is becoming nearly impossible. Quoting UCI's Ed Coulson:

"A lot of that has to do with housing supply. The amount of new construction for apartments in Southern California -- California in general -- is pretty low. It's a state that puts a lot of barriers between vacant ground and new supply coming on to the market."

Civics 101
"We ask a lot of immigrants. We ask them to think about what their duty is in joining our community," said UCI's Sara Wallace Goodman in the Washington Post (4 March 2024), adding "But we don't turn that lens around." I think Goodman was referring to the lack of civic knowledge among our current citizens when she proposed some sort of optional Civics 101 test. How about a mandatory test for all people elected or appointed to government offices? See: A Modest Proposal 4. Political Practice (23 January 2024).

Idyllic? Really?
A project involving UCI researchers found that autonomous vehicles (AV) are vulnerable to LiDAR hacking. (see Autoweek, 1 March 2024). The UCI in the News story stated that the "idyllic future of self-driving cars may not be so safe and sound." I have never heard any system involving AVs being described as "idyllic."

No one wants uninvited individuals entering their houses without their permission, but we welcome if not need some of these uninvited guests in our country for a broad range of jobs in agriculture, construction, and other areas. The problem is not immigration per se but rather the near complete lack of entry control. So build a wall, and build it with red tape so it can be easily removed. Place a few manned entry checkpoints and no one gets in without an invitation and a work permit, to be obtained at the consulate in their home country. Why?

Regarding asylum, a significant portion of the world's population cam make a valid argument for requesting asylum in our country. We can't afford this anymore, and we'd never be able to accommodate all the requests. Me/Now is an existential threat to our democracy but, if given the opportunity, he'll likely close our borders. Our democracy, of course, is more important and Biden losing to Me/Now is an existential threat to our democracy. Joe: it's time to act. Do I really want to build a bureaucratic wall and stop all immigration? No. But the implication of not doing so is a much bigger threat. That's why.

God in nature? Or human imposition of god on nature? I do not disagree with Curator Michaela Mohrmann who believes that religion "definitely informed a lot of landscape painting." The artists were likely informed by their beliefs but an observer today may only see a personal view of the landscape, both natural and man-made. The eye of the beholder more likely reflects their beliefs than those of the artist. California's grade schools for years featured mission projects as exercises in California's history, not in it's religious evolution. This month, the Spiritual Geographies exhibition at the Langson Institute and Museum of California Arts highlights California's network of Spanish missions. Mohrmann said:

"Many of the plein air paintings romanticized the missions but there were darker interpretations
too. The portrayals of crumbling architecture and ruins were seen by some as confirmation of Catholicism's decline and Protestantism's ascendancy."

In the LA Times, Noah Bierman (1 March 2024) considers the "other" plan for high-speed rail (HSR) service in California: the Brightline proposal for HSR from LA to Vegas). Bierman offers reasons why, unlike Europe and Asia, HSR in the U.S. has faltered:

• American population centers are spread farther apart. Bierman's claim, however, that U.S. cities were designed around highway exits is misleading. The initial development of U.S. cities was not based on highway exits, although their continued growth has often concentrated development near interchanges;
• Driving in the U.S. is cheaper than in other parts of the world, where gas taxes, tolls and congestion fees are higher. Bierman does not say, however, that it has mostly been user fees (gas taxes) that provided the tax revenue for interstates (and property taxes for local roads);
• American passenger trains have to compete for access with freight trains on single track systems. Bierman does not note, however, that in in most cases freight railroads own the tracks.

If LA was located where Victorville is, then the LA-Vegas system night actually work. Unfortunately, there's another 50 miles through the mountains with no current rail service to Rancho Cucamonga, and another 50 miles or so on Metrolink commuter rail to Los Angeles. With that said, having nearly 20 million people within driving distance of Victorville certainly makes future service feasible (not cheap, but feasible). But it might be cheaper to open a couple of nice casinos in Victorville.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"I view great cities as pestilential to the morals, the health and the liberties of man. True, they nourish some of the elegant arts; but the useful ones can thrive elsewhere; and less perfection in the others, with more health, virtue and freedom, would be my choice."

From Great Expectations by Charles Dickens:

"It was one of those March days when the sun shines hot and the wind blows cold:
when it is summer in the light, and winter in the shade."

The science behind our Gregorian calendar is simple. By agreement, the world follows a simple calendar algorithm to keep track of dates. To be a leap year:

1. The year must be evenly divisible by 4
2. If the year is evenly divisible by 100, it is not a leap year, unless the year is also evenly divisible by 400
3. February was the 12th month in the ancient Roman Calendar; the succeeding Julian and Gregorian calendars used the above rules to add Leap Year Day as February 29th (the 366th day of the year)

Revisiting a prior post in P Is for Profit in Miscellanea 9 (15 January 2023), I should have mentioned the forced displacement of underrepresented households in Chavez Ravine for Dodgerball in 1960 and now LA is trying to schedule a doubleheader with a planned gondola project that would impact homes near Union Station. This time former owner Frank McCourt is playing Dodgeball to justify a project that will personally benefit his use of the stadium parking lots (he kept these when he sold the team and the stadium). Will the City of Angels resist his effort to McCourt and Spark or will decision makers allow the sweep to become the "City of the Fallen Angels?"

Note: The title cut from Joni Mitchell's Court and Spark, released 50 years ago, is an encounter with a busker.

UCI alum and Michigan faculty member Henry Liu, utilizing GPS data from a fleet of General Motors' connected vehicles, has shown that intersection traffic signals can be adjusted to improve traffic flow if as few as 6 percent of the flow comprised connected vehicles. The study revealed reductions of 20 to 30 percent in the number of stops at signalized intersections.

Exciting, but there are some questions. First, the performance improvements seem similar to standard traffic signal synchronization studies. An automated system may increase the efficiency of signal timing, potentially reduce the associated costs, and unlike field studies, may allow for continuous tuning of signal timing. However, as demand adjusts to what is essentially an increase in capacity, would there be decreasing returns? Second, assuming that fleet or private vehicles would comprise the connected flow, would they receive some benefit exceeding that for vehicles that are not connected? And, third, will the answers to such questions potentially revise the certainty expressed by a local Michigan traffic engineer who said:

"And I could argue that this is going to be the way everybody in the country does it.
Once they've solidified the system, there's no reason to do it any other way."

A Day in the Life*
I read the news today and then left my "affordable apartment with the biggest view of any affordable apartment, which was not really any view at all." I took the elevator and walked onto a busy sidewalk but still noticed, even after all these years, the absence of cars parked along the broad sidewalks. Working from home, I wouldn't start until later in the morning so I had a few moments to walk my neighborhood and take in the now familiar sights, smells, and sounds that I shared with my hundreds of neighbors every day.

A Crowd of People Stood and Stared
What is a 15-Minute City (15MC)? A 15MC is an urban planning concept where most regular daily activities can be performed at locations reachable in 15 minutes via walking, biking, or various forms of public transit. In other words, a land use pattern that accommodates most activity demands without the need of personal, motorized transport. But a city is not a uniform pattern of development. Whether due to historical factors, natural disasters or redevelopment efforts, urban economics, or varying demands by residents, business, and government, one size certainly does not fit all. That goes for 15-minute cities, a buzzword popularized in the 2020 re-election campaign of Paris mayor Anne Hildago with a focus on density, proximity, diversity and digitalization.

Can 15-Minute Cities Work in America? SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (7 February 2024) reviewed MIT research (published in Nature Human Behavior) which concludes that 15-minute cities may be a stretch in much of US.

"Only 14% of Americans make consumer trips within the time radius defined by ... 15-minute cities in which residents can access basic needs by foot or bicycle in a quarter-hour timeframe.

Made the Bus in Seconds Flat
On one hand, proponents claim that the primary roadblocks are zoning regulations, with a list that typically includes single-family zoning, parking requirements, and perceptions of demographics, school quality, and the availability of shopping and municipal services (and, of course, NIMBYism). These are not bad things; rather, these reflect aspirations of the majority of Americans. Until someone can show that people do not want these things, or than most locations can provide these things without cars, then the only demand for 15MCs will be from those people who do not value these aspirations (nor cars). For related posts on NIMBYism, see God Bless the Child (11 June 2021) and Paine-less Common Sense (8 June 2019).

On the other hand, Bloomberg apparently is more optimistic claiming that "American people aren't naturally allergic to the 15-minute city as a concept ... when available, residents take advantage of nearby amenities." Keep in mind, as a general rule, the greater the level of local amenities, the greater the cost of housing (and the amenities). I also don't buy in to the observation that 15-minute cities can develop on their own "if local rules allow it." These areas can develop anywhere, but not without changing the fundamental land use economics in place. And our country was not "built for the car." Only halfway into our history did it started to appear this way, by design driven by behavior. The US may have pioneered single-use neighborhoods, but the raison d'etre was not to require long drives to travel between them. And there is no research that "proves" there's a better way.

I'd Love to Turn You On
An excerpt from my post Elusive City? (23 August 2021)

I live in a 2,100 square foot single family home on leased land with a 10 minute greenbelt stroll to work, with a broad range of residential amenities within 5 minutes (pools, parks, trails, a nature preserve, etc.), in the middle of the 6th most populated county in the US, and the second most densely populated county in the state, in a city that has reserved over 40 percent of its sizable footprint as permanent open space, and all of this located just a few miles from the ocean.

Is this a 15-Minute City? Of course not. No city can offer what I just described all within a 15 minute walk. But guess what? In addition to my 5-Minute Neighborhood, everything else that I regularly access -- family, stores, work, health care, airports, beaches -- is within a 15 minute drive.

And Though the Holes Were Rather Small...
There is a scale effect. Could multiple 15-minute cities "tile the plane" or would some sort of central place hierarchy dominate the way suburbs originally developed on the periphery of monocentric cities? The MIT study rightfully concludes "Where a 15-minute city is unfeasible, turning a 40-minute city into a 35-minute city would be worthwhile, too." This is precisely the initial marginal changes that can lead to new travel and activity patterns being established. The patterns of automobile usage and single-use neighborhoods did not appear overnight. Each took decades, with major interruptions. We should not expect 15-minute cities any time soon, but we can and should begin to push toward more efficient land use patterns and modal networks.

At the End of the Day
I saw a film today. It was a documentary on how, years ago, people used to drive personal automobiles to work each day. People still work, mostly, but usually from home or at local businesses a short walk from home. No one owns a personal automobile anymore and there's not much public transit either. There's no real need since everything that one could need is only minutes away. Besides, with the cost of housing, owning a car would be out of reach, let alone a place to park it. In the evening, the sounds of the city are minimal nowadays and most of us have grown use to the sights and smells. A neighbor said that such evenings reminded her of living in the country. Maybe her memory is better than mine.

For me, first came the Beatles and, to some lesser degree, the rest of the British invasion. Slowly but steadily seeping in were the influences of my siblings. From one brother, who played in a band, it was the Stones, Dylan, and similar artists. Superb, but they didn't resonate with me, at least not until a few years later when Mick Taylor joined the Stones and Dylan passed through various phases of creativity. Then there were some extremes, such as early albums by Chicago and Grand Funk. It was not their similar geographic origins but rather the musical space they created. There were shorter, radio-friendly songs filled with hooks but it was their longer explorations that captured me. The overall quality was not as important as the fact that they weren't following a formula. This was true of the Beatles but their growing experimentation was lost on me at first. In 1971 two things happened. I'd listen to a Rochester radio station in the evening (WCMF) where I heard Stairway to Heaven when it was released (some stations played these album cuts). But it was my lazy brother who could not be bothered to move the arm of the record player so it would not be on endless repeat. And every morning he was playing the Allman Brothers At Fillmore East. He'd leave, usually very early, and I would in a dream state listen to this never surpassed live album over and over and over. It was the zeitgeist: the space, the exploration, and the stunning musicianship. See Diamonds (7 September 2023) and Down a Rabbit Hole (4 July 2023).

Many years later I went to a Gregg Allman concert and he brought out Derek Trucks, the teenage nephew of The Allman Brothers Band's drummer Butch Trucks. I seem to recall him wearing a baseball cap and coming in late on his solo. But his performance was stunning. Trucks joined the Allman Brothers and was with them from 1999 through 2014. He formed the Tedeschi Trucks band in 2010 with his wife Susan Tedeschi. The band is incredible but I don't know if I would have listened to I Am the Moon when it was released in 2022 had it been a single album rather than a sequence of four separate albums. I had not heard much of their four prior albums and the few Derek Trucks releases that I have were also not "frequent listens." What sold me was a trio of facts. First, I had not heard about this 2022 project at all until last week. Second, the long-in-development project reflected and expanded on a variety of influences drawn from art (Layla and Majnun) and their own personal histories. And, third, and I think most importantly, was the fact that it was over two hours of music created as a whole (albeit spread over four albums each released a lunar month apart). Having 24 tracks spread over 130 minutes of music with so few "long tracks" to draw me in, it was the overall concept, the integrated whole, where many voices created and told the tale. It's a variation on my being drawn to longer musical explorations, but it's truly incredible.

Perhaps somewhat oddly, Derek Trucks had a different perspective. he saw many of his strongest influences produced albums running about a half hour. In Flamingo magazine, Trucks said:

"That's the way to listen to a record. We've gotten into this habit of piling in 75 minutes on a CD because you could. No one listens top to bottom anymore. It's playlists anyway now, but we really wanted to try to make this record go down in small bits for people."

The Irvine Standard is a publication of The Irvine Company publication that arrives monthly in the form of a neighborhood newspaper. The February 2024 issue included a page with two articles: "More freeway improvements are on the way" and "Irvine has synchronized 80% of its traffic lights."

More Freeway Improvements Are on the Way
Orange County recently expanded the 405 freeway from South Coast Metro to the LA County line. The 15 mile stretch added two lanes in each direction, a general purpose lane and an express lanes (combined with the existing HOV lane for paired HOT lanes). For a description and commentary, see I Said Along the 405, Stuart (13 December 2023) and On Whom the Toll Falls (27 July 2023).

There are additional plans to widen a further 28 miles of freeways, including 13 miles under construction on the I-5 just south of the Irvine Spectrum and on SR-55 between the I-5 and I-405 freeways. The Transportation Corridors Agencies (TCA) is adding connectors between the SR-91 Express lanes and the 241 toll road. The only sound bite provided on these projects was that the 405 lanes are performing as expected. No comments were offered regarding how long these improvements would last. For commentary on what could be expected, see The Problem Is Not AI (28 January 2024) and Defining... Induced Demand (28 July 2020)

Irvine Has Synchronized 80 Percent of Its Traffic Signals
A performance assessment of a signal synchronization project in Irvine suggests that the coordination effort produced a travel time savings of 13 percent and a reduction in stops of 29 percent, as well as gas consumption savings of $14 million. Hard to argue with these results, except this is not the first time, or the second time, and it won't be the last, that such results were obtained. The best one can hope for is to match current supply with current demand but demand, particularly in a growing and dynamic area, will change pretty much continuously. That's why whenever traffic signals are re-timed, you get essentially the same improvement results. There's no slow convergence, just a constant need to do your laundry.

Forty years ago, I became marginally engaged in signal timing with the Fuel Efficient Traffic SIgnal Management program and my observation over numerous projects since that time is, as a dog returns to its vomit, excess delay, stops, and fuel consumption will always come back. Subsequent synchronization analysis always yields percent changes in the same narrow range of improvement, suggesting that a fundamental relationship may be at play. Over this same time, I have seen dozens of theses and dissertation directed toward improving traffic signal system timing. The continued presence of synchronization studies suggests that no practical advances have been made.

The article presents a contradiction. The City claims their Traffic Management Center (TMC) "sets us apart from other cities" (actually, several cities in Orange County have TMCs) and provides a high tech war room where a full staff can adjust signal timing for commute hours, construction activities, and special events. But does it automatically synchronize traffic signals? Apparently not. This is why there is an endless stream of projects all over southern California and likely everywhere else that there are traffic signals. The benefits are real, but ephemeral. A self-calibrating system wouldn't need signal synchronization projects, or a large staff, or a large wall of monitors, or even a TMC. Is it worth the expense of the staff, the bank of monitors, the fiber interconnect, and the TMC itself to save 15 percent every 5-10 years? Is there a solution to this ongoing "maintenance" problem? Traffic signals change. And signal synchronization plans apparently need to be changed on a regular basis. One would think that traffic signals could be smart to continuously gather sensor data and self-calibrate.

Freeway lanes and signal timing plans. Some things will never change.

If, like a child, I ask "Why?" would you respond "Just because?" Would this be because you're frustrated that you're really not sure if you have an acceptable answer? Do I ask too many questions? Are you afraid of being asked follow-up questions? Should I stop asking questions altogether?

If I ask "Why?" would you try to answer? Would you try to understand why I asked? Would you respond "I'm kind of busy so let me think about it, knowing that you likely won't?" Are you just buying time, as if waiting for a pest to fly away? Are you hoping I'll see your disinterest and be polite enough to not ask again? Would it be better if I made claims that even I don't accept but with which you'd be satisfied since you won't have to think or respond?

What is the value of silence? Are people silent in church because they're not supposed to question why they're there? Are they silent because they are actually questioning why they're there? Do questions open wounds or bare injustices? Do questions put people on the spot, embarrass, or otherwise cast uncertainty on one's life? Can you think enough to ask me why I'm asking that question? Or is it easier to just accept things when you don't have to think? Can an endless sequence of questions lead to anything other than a comedy skit?

If I said "There are questions one shouldn't ask," would you agree or would you respond "Such as?" After all, how can someone truly seek the answer, seek meaning, without questioning? If I remain silent, have I stopped asking questions? Or have I decided to direct my inquiries elsewhere? Would it matter to you?

Did you know it had even started? Start by reading Sort of Like a Headache (14 October 2021). Electric Vehicles (EVs) have been around as long as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and while the need is clear and the growth is impressive, it's not a revolution. Read the article for yourself in SmartCitiesDive where they argue that although the early adopter phase is over, the need for charging infrastructure is critical.

News from Hertz (see EV Ups and Downs (21 January 2024)) and other issues such as battery effectiveness in cold weather and ongoing complaints about charging infrastructure may make one think that there are problems, leaving potential consumers with the impression that now may not be the moment to switch from ICE vehicles. These are hurdles to be addressed in any potential transformation in what is effectively a daily life style. Some changes will stick but only after ups and downs; some will fade away. But this was not a revolution and therefore it cannot be over.

The LA Times (15 February 2024) reports that California electric vehicle (EV) sales are falling and questions whether this is temporary or a change that will impact state climate goals.

I'm troubled by climate change, of course, but I'm also troubled by the mixing of objectives, selling a preferred alternative by disingenuously linking it to a more important one. Cars, actually the transport sector in general, are the major source of GHG emissions. While this is true (it's nearly half in California), they still contribute only 28 percent (2023) of domestic GHG (globally, transportation is the fourth largest GHG source). So even totally eliminating transportation (not just cars) would leave 72 percent of domestic GHG emissions.

What made electric vehicles an attractive means to lower GHG was having consumers willingly purchase EVs (albeit with various incentives). The somewhat misrepresentation of the source of GHG together with the rapid expansion of EV sales (at least in California) perhaps placed too much weight on this strategy to reduce GHGs. I've not yet seen an EV life-cycle cost analysis vis-a-vis ICE vehicles, and while I'm relatively sure that EV costs eventually will be less, there will still be costs factors of which consumers should be aware. Potential factors include the unreliable charging infrastructure, the increased costs of all vehicles, and the fact that we may have advanced beyond the initial sales disruption due to early adopters and now be facing more constrained consumers.

A representative of AAA said "The government and automakers have spent billions on something consumers may not want." I readily admit that future decisions regarding climate change will not likely be based on only what consumers want, but we should not be entirely surprised by the current long and winding road to get there.

George Orwell's 1984 was a warning of the dangers of totalitarianism.

I saw a Kaitlin Collins "interview" with Representative Elise Stefanik (R, NY). I use the quotes to emphasize that the questions asked had little if anything to do with Stefanik's responses. But the chair of the House Republican conference does have a "gift." I use the quotes to emphasize that no one actually gifted Stefanik with the ability to speak at a inhuman clip, talk over any interchange with the other side of the conversation, and be essentially already on to the next topic while the "interviewer" is still expressing the prior question. Collins is good, but even where she firmly stated the untruth or misrepresentation of many of Stefanik's glib comments, only a listener tuned to her statements would have caught them. My guess is that few people could have comprehended the stream of invective coming out of Stefanik's mouth or even parse anything of consequence other than "Biden bad, Me/Now great." I actually would love to see her in a controlled interview or debate, where equal respect (and equal time) were guaranteed for both sides, with fact checkers scrolling in unison, to see if she actually has anything valid and useful to say. Can her constituents understand her? It likely doesn't matter.

Disclosure: There are few if any shared beliefs between Stefanik and me, but we share a characteristic that she likely finds of extreme use but of which I have found to be a real impediment: rapid fire speech that can stymie constructive conversation. In 2014, at age 30, Stefanik, born in 1984, became the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. She has grown from a dedicated Me/Now acolyte to one of Me/Now's strongest supporters along his "stay-out-of-jail" road toward authoritarian governance.

I'm glad to say, I've come around, but if I could have one wish
I'd like another try at twenty-five, or was it twenty-six Don Sampson

Three days of rain is the forecast for Orange County. Two weeks ago I posted Rain: Redux (7 February 2024) but this recent forecast promised "three days of rain" and started a drip in the leaky roof of my memory. In 1997 I saw the opening of Richard Greenberg's play Three Days of Rain at South Coast Repertory, the title taken from W. S. Merwin's For the Anniversary of My Death (1993):

Surprised at the earth
And the love of one woman
And the shamelessness of men
As today writing after three days of rain
Hearing the wren sing and the falling cease
And bowing not knowing to what

I won't provide a synopsis of the play; that's something you'll need to investigate. But I will say that the first act introduces the players and all of the elements and all of the confusion. The three roles (Walker, his sister Nan, and his life-long friend Pip) in the first act are played by the same actors who play their parents (Ned, Lina, and Pip's father Theo) in the second act, but set 35 years earlier in the same apartment. Ned's journal is introduced and it's first entry was "1960, April 3rd to April 5th. Three days of rain." This was not, as Walker put it, "A f*^*ing weather report," but a key to the central theme that Walker's guilt and his potential salvation both flow from Ned, his father.

Regarding Ned, Andrucki writes:

A flaneur, he says, is a person whose life has "no pattern ... just traffic ... and no hope."
Which, far from being sad, he confides to Lina, is instead liberating, and not lonely but
solitary. He names their son Walker.

Lina, in turn, tells Ned, "I smother the day in speech because I know nothing and I want
someone to speak back to me and tell me -- what? What is it that some people in cities seem
to know? What is this secret that is constantly eluding me?"

"it is in these moments of happiness that Ned and Lina are planting the seeds of their future sorrows."

The shadows in Act 2 were unknowingly cast by the light of future possibilities in Act 1. Some but not all of the shadows are revealed but in the play, as with all roles in life, illusions persist, even when the players have left the stage.

"And the way the rain comes down hard / That's the way I feel inside." Robert Smith

ASEE's First Bell (8 February 2024) reports that "new data show only 16% of community college students earn bachelor's degrees after transferring." This is factually misleading. The original study was completed by Inside Higher Ed who reported that:

"Only about a third of students who started community college during the 2015-16 academic year transferred to four-year colleges and universities ... Among those who did transfer, fewer than half, 48 percent, earned bachelor's degrees."

Second, the implication is that 84 percent do not finish their degree program, results that were even more pronounced for students from low-income neighborhoods. This an utter failure and I suspect that the lack of preparation at the K-12 level together with support strains at the family and community levels are the primary causal factors. It is wrong to allow students who are not ready to reach a level where the failure takes so long, cost so much, and has multiple impacts on the student.

However, the ASEE report's claim is misleading. The actual study in Inside Higher Ed (IHE) reported that 48 percent of CC transfers finish their bachelor's degree, so the 16 percent number is based on the total number of community college students, one third who actually transfer, and 48 percent of these who actually finish. Still not great, but from a four-year institution's perspective, almost half that transfer do finish within six years, even if this is only a sixth of the total number of community college students who intended to transfer to a four-year degree program. Potential mitigation measures include dual enrollment (although IHE says that a bias exists since such students are better prepared, emphasizing the real issue is poor K-12 preparation in low-income areas).

Separately, ASEE reports that the U.S. Census recently updated its forecasts and concluded that "the number of 18-year-olds is now projected to contract after cresting at around 4.2 million people in 2033, shrinking to around 3.8 million by 2039. After that, the Bureau doesn't anticipate the population of 18-year-olds will exceed 4 million people in any year this century." So lower enrollments will be the likely future of college education.

Last week's mailer from the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) provided the following data:

Gas Stations:
CA: 2568 drivers per station
US: 1399 drivers per station

I found other data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the AAA:

VMT per capita (source: BTS):
CA: 8,700 VMT per capita (about 24 miles per day)
US: About 9,700 in 2017, ranging from 5,300 in DC (51st) to 16,900 in Wyoming (1st)

It makes sense that having more gas stations would tend to increase competition (depending on the spatial distribution of stations throughout the state) and thus lower prices, so reduced competition could help explain the above average retail prices. The fact that California prices are significantly higher than Arizona, even though Arizona gets much of their gas piped in from California, suggests that other factors are in play. Many things are higher cost in California (start with housing) and this includes state gas taxes which are about $0.25 per gallon higher than the national average. Furthermore, California's summer gasoline blend costs about 11 cents more per gallon to produce.

In terms of best-selling cars, 25 percent of 2023 California automobile sales were Electric Vehicles (EVs are 2 percent of the total registered cars in California, with the Tesla Model Y being the most frequently sold model. Florida was the only state that had a sedan, the Toyota Corolla, as the most frequently sold model, with all other states having pick-up trucks or SUVs). So EVs are replacing ICE vehicles in the state, and at an increasing rate. So Californians drive fewer miles than the US average and are increasingly not using fossil fuels (California's per capita gasoline consumption has dropped by almost 10 percent since 2007). A simple comparison of gas stations per capita may not tell the entire story.

For similar posts, see It's a Gas, Gas, Gas (6 December 2023) for a comparison between California and Texas, and People in Cars (25 November 2023) regarding efforts to limit the number of new stations in California.

Update: This week's WSPA flyer compared the energy prices of gasoline versus electricity. Information, of course, is never absolute, but always useful. WSPA then attempts to project the relative costs into the future, concluding that "it could become more expensive in a few years to fuel a Tesla Model 3 than a Toyota Camry." Clearly, WSPA has a fossil fuel bias, but that does not excuse them from misrepresenting the data. The relative prices apparently were equal in 2013 (the first point provided). In the decade that followed, there appears to be a continuous rise in residential electricity prices, which are mostly higher than gasoline prices. To their credit, WSPA does say that, opposed to electricity prices, gasoline prices do fluctuate. What they don't say is that residential electricity prices are regulated (contributing to a smoother and more predictable trend) and that individual households can directly produce electricity. They also don't say that in California about 45 percent of the inputs to electricity generation are fossil fuels. The phasing out of fossil fuels is due to mitigating the growing future costs of climate change. The goal is not to provide the cheapest juice for your ride. In full disclosure, there are also costs of increased solar, wind, and other so-called green energy sources. The key is to reflect these production costs and environmental impacts directly in consumer prices.

As Nikki Haley tours California, even some of her most ardent supporters don't see a path. She Nikki Haley had barely started speaking Wednesday at the Wild Goose Tavern in Costa Mesa when the interruptions started. A Me/Now acolyte shouted "You already lost, Nikki!" followed by chants and boos from Ne/Now protesters outside.

Think about this. Yes, I know that thinking about things is something that Me/Now and his supporters rarely do, but the rest of us can think about it. Let's say it is true that Nikki Haley has already lost, meaning she has no chance of gaining the GOP nomination. It's quite possible that this is indeed the case, but why would Me/Now supporters show up at a Haley rally to convey this obvious message? I can only conclude that this is simple intolerance. As with any cult that suspends reality for blind faith, supporters of Me/Now, just like Me/Now, cannot accept any opposition whatsoever. If even one small child says "he isn't wearing any clothes" then the cracks may shatter their idol.

A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"The mentality of the past was that we could control floods, and contain where flooding happened. And outside of that, communities and businesses and residents could kind of go about what they do, and not think about floods, but we know now that around the U.S. we're seeing that infrastructure is undersized to contain the extreme weather of today."

"A redesign of the Boardwalk at Bricktown skyscraper in Oklahoma City would take it to 1,907 feet, making it the tallest tower in the US. The planned height, which echoes the year Oklahoma was admitted as a state, exceeds that of ... New York City's One World Trade Center."

I wish I could say that I sought an answer to the first item below and then couldn't avoid the second but, alas, that would not be true. In general, most people get excited over coincidences and today is one that a lot of people have noticed: it's Valentine's Day and Ash Wednesday. My (second) question was "How frequently does Valentine's Day fall on Ash Wednesday? According to the New York Times (14 Feb 2024):

"The two holidays fell on the same day in 2018, and will do so again in 2029. After that ... the strange overlap [apparently won't occur] until the year 2170."

Cutting to the chase, I would also like to say that the headline of ASCE's Civil Engineering Source eNews that drew me in was "Top truck bottlenecks concentrated in just a few cities." That would also not be true (as a rule, trucks and non-guitar bottlenecks aren't of great interest to me). Rather, it was an article by Ben Walpole with the exhilarating juxtaposition of "civil engineers" and "romantically compatible." As a genuine contrarian who is becoming increasingly grumpy and disagreeable, I couldn't get past expressions such as "quintessential civil engineering couples behavior" (this is a thing?), "a particular skill set," and "the good, the bad, and the nerdy."

Really? Quintessential? Are there even enough CEE couples on which to base such a conclusion? Is there a self-selection bias at play using three Kansas City couples as the data set? This is embarrassing. Not to the three couples, nor to Civil Engineering, but based on the fact that I read the article, let alone felt compelled to respond. If you were really interested in odd romantic relationships involving a civil engineer, even one who does not formally identify as one, then I could suggest a good starting place. Text me.

Third Stone from the Sun is a mostly instrumental composition by Jimi Hendrix from his first album in 1967:

Although your world wonders me
With your majestic and superior cackling hen
Your people I do not understand
So to you I shall put an end
And you'll never hear surf music again

'Cause and effect, chain of events
All of the chaos, makes perfect sense
When you're spinnin' round, things come undone
Welcome to Earth, third rock from the Sun

The 1960s counterculture mantra was "turn on, tune in, drop out" (it didn't mean what you may have thought). Today it's more of "turn down, tune out, drop out" (which does mean what you thought the prior mantra meant).

In May 2023 Pew conducted focus groups of adults who had soured on politics and political news. Here in is a brief summary of what they found. It is one that closely parallels concepts that I have written about so I've added by own [labels] and assessments. Pew states that these are adults who are not actively engaged in politics and not necessarily representative of typical adults.

[Increasing Complexity of Life]
Pew concludes that focus group participants "have a sense that politics is everywhere -- and often in a bad way. They find themselves overwhelmed by how much information they confront in their day-to-day life." Turn off.

[Increasing Cognitive Dissonance]
While many actually vote, most acknowledge they could be more engaged but have no desire, in part to protect their mental health. Cognitive dissonance can be relieved by taking a simple action, like voting, especially by following a script -- such as a party platform or media focus -- rather than the cognitive processing of choices. Tune out.

[Increased Alienation from the Entire Process]
Most participants were frustrated by both parties and didn't feel represented by either. I can only think of Timbuk 3 "when torn between two evils, I always pick the lesser." Turn off.

[Cult of Personality Morphs into a Cult of Party First]
"Many of the participants pointed to the vitriol and negativity in politics ... and not enough progress being made on issues that are important to everyday people." Politics should be about tomorrow -- that's the role of a party platform. When personal platforms are introduced, placing individuality over politics in key areas, even while maintaining general principles of the party platform, is confusing at best. Tune out.

[Change?]
"How would these people change politics? [They] discussed changes to the Electoral College, term limits or reducing the role of money in politics, others said they simply would like more choices, less negativity and more progress on important issues." This is not happening, and is unlikely to do so. Drop out.

Not a good outlook, unless one has a party-centric view of maintaining power for the party first and foremost. All they want is your vote, then you can go back to sleep.

Zuckerberg and other social media CEOs were hauled before Congress and effectively accused of having blood on their hands. They probably do. But what about the gun industry? The First Amendment (i.e., the freedom of speech, freedom of the press) and the Second Amendment (i.e., the right of the people to keep and bear arms) provide protection for speech and arms, respectively. Why is Congress grilling one lobby and not the other?

The expression "privacy lost" reminds me of Milton's Paradise Lost that in turn took me further down a back road in my memory to Hilton's Lost Horizon. The thought of an isolated paradise (is there any other kind), where the aging process is but a trickle of that in the real world, has an increasingly mystical draw on my psyche. In Lost Horizon, a 37-year old British consul in Afghanistan disappears, finds himself in Shangri-la, but leaves to guide others back home, and then, perhaps, finds his way back to paradise. I too took a journey at age 37 and wish to now return to some yet to be realized Shangri-la. I once wrote:

I own nothing that is more valuable than my privacy.
Everything else can be replaced but privacy lost is forever.

Beckie Supiano considers "what removing sociology as a core-course option means for Florida's students" in The Chronicle of Higher Education. The rhetoric from each side is not unexpected: the discipline has been "hijacked by left-wing activists" and the "field has been unfairly targeted."

One would think, for institutes of higher education, institutes founded upon the liberal arts and sciences, that new ideas and perspectives (leading to new courses, programs, and schools) would tend to be on the left, perhaps even the far left. Conservative thought, being established and accepted by definition, would be less likely to promote innovation. This, of course, doesn't make ideas from the far left correct; rather, it only makes them different. And these institutions are themselves the best place to discuss the relative merits of changing perspectives.

So what happened in Florida? I don't know what radical far-left ideas came out of their sociology program, or any sociology program, but the last thing that should happen is to have another institution reacting from the far-right, hijack attempted innovations from an institution acting on the far-left. Does any elective political body have qualifications to judge and block academic pursuits any more than an academic body has qualifications to judge and block political pursuits? Are academic and political pursuits essentially minimally-overlapping magisteria?

Where should the validity of knowledge, ideas, and opinions be addressed? Where does Solomon sit?

A path forward may be to provide funding to develop or emphasize ideas and perspectives, new or otherwise, that reflect ideals of all perspectives, even directly opposing ideals, and debate them in public forums. Removing funding from public programs that offer ideas and perspectives that differ between academic and government institutions is a too common practice that says "don't say that word, don't express that idea, don't open anyone's mind, at least not on our dollar." Knowledge and understanding are search processes, unlike dogma and blind faith. Those who seek by their curiosity and questioning threaten those beholden to dogma.

... plus c'est la meme chose. Some 'news' from the past week or so related to growth:

The Growth of Electric Vehicles:
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (1 February 2024) reports that a study by the University of Nebraska and the US Army Corps of Engineers found that the greater weight of electric vehicles pose a safety challenge regarding impacts with roadway guardrails due to the greater mass of EVs. No mention was made of wear and tear on pavements.

Sprawl and Farm Land:
SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (31 Jan 2024) reports a worst-case scenario that "19 percent of Florida's farm acreage could be lost to suburban development by 2070, according to a study by the University of Florida Center for Landscape Conservation Planning and 1000 Friends of Florida. Rising sea levels will also contribute to the change, both directly and indirectly. The report, however, estimates that 850,000 acres of agricultural land could be saved with more compact development plans.

Population by Age:
The population in Maine has the oldest average age (about 45) while Utah has the youngest (about 32).

Work-from-Home and Office Space 1:
Work-from-Home numbers have been stable throughout 2023, and are expected to increase in the future. According to Stanford's Nick Bloom, "Return-to-office died in '23." Time to examine hybrid schedules and alternative uses of office space (the U.S. office vacancy rate hit a 30-year-high of over 18 percent in 2023).

Work-from-Home and Office Space 2:
Fewer workers in the traditional workplace is dramatically retooling demand for office space. The Irvine Company is converting land planned for office development into housing, according to the OC Register's Jonathan Lansner. Looks like Working-from-Home is sustainable.

The Cost of Eating
The cost of living in California got 19 percent more expensive since 2019, also according to the OC Register's Jonathan Lansner. Based on regional Consumer Price Indexes, despite inflation being down, grocery prices have jumped by 25 percent over the past four years.

Urban Resiliency
NYC and LA were ranked among the world's most resilient major metro areas, according to Tokio Marine Group and Economist Impact. Resilience was defined as "a city's ability to avoid, withstand and recover from shocks, such as natural disasters, and from long-term stresses such as poverty, decrepit infrastructure or migration."

Traffic Deaths
"L.A. Resolved To End Traffic Deaths, states The LA Times, "So Why Have They Almost Doubled?" Vision Zero is a wish, not a viable objective. If wishes were horses, we'd have fewer traffic fatalities but, alas, LA Police Chief Michel Moore said "more people were killed in traffic collisions last year than from murders" (sort of good thing?). Most traffic accidents are due to inattentiveness on the part of drivers, and often on the part of pedestrians or other road users. Trying to increase attention while not actively driving via a campaign such as "Vision Zero" will not work on a problem that is caused by inattention while driving.

W-f-H Killed the Urban Life Style?
In his blog, David Levinson (29 January 2024) argues that "Work-from-Home has killed the 20th century Central Business District (CBD):

"Perhaps this is obvious, but I still see people trying to restore Mr. Dumpty to his pre-gravitationally induced state. Covid-stimulated work-from-home has relieved millions of commuters of millions of wasted hours. The cost of this is life in the CBD.

"But just as 1946 was the peak of the previous urban cycle, before the suburbs exploded and the peak of public transport use, 2019 will mark a similar high point in the US, and it will be a long time, if ever, that CBDs regain their status in an absolute or relative sense."

America is Growing, Americans are Shrinking
The U.S. State Department citing international law has extended national boundaries to include large areas of the continental shelf, particularly off Alaska. Americans themselves, however, are shrinking. Over the last four decades, we've gone from first to 47th in average height in the world. What happened? Hint: What goes out, must come down.

California, again, has experienced some much needed rain over the past few days. In general, I don't like rain, but when they refer to it as "an atmospheric river, I actually hate it. And even more when it rains unceasingly for days. Or when my roof leaks. A year ago I wrote that I typically stay indoors when it's raining but I'd occasionally venture out. Now I seem caught between a puddle and a soft place. Rain on the outside, drips on the inside, and a saturated psyche.

Last year, to raise my spirits, and to pray to the rain gods, I made a list, a baker's dozen, of some favorite songs that are about rain, directly or metaphorically. Click HERE for the list, some runner-up cuts, and links to videos. I'll always like these songs; not so much the rain.

The Chronicle of Higher Ed (30 Jan 2024) considers what they deem the College Rankings Paradox:

"Academic leaders have long complained about the impact of rankings systems while simultaneously boasting about how their institutions are classified. Despite these shared criticisms, many universities' strategic plans explicitly affirm the importance of rising in national rankings."

Do undergraduate students consider relative ranking? Some applicants (and/or their parents) will have some sense of prestige associated with some schools. Some students seek a particular major at a particular school. And some (perhaps many) students seek a school with a college life reputation more than academic prestige. Note that a school could have both and I do not imply that a college life reputation is a bad thing. A lot of life changes will transpire in the four or so years of undergraduate education and for some students collegiate athletics, school location (both regionally and in terms of local interaction), availability of various amenities, and other factors come into play. But, to repeat my initial questions, do undergraduate students actually consider relative rankings? I strongly believe the answer is "no, they do not."

Then why to colleges keep participating in these rating games? These liberal institutions are actually quite conservative when it comes to change. It took years (and possibly a pandemic) to convince schools that use of standardized test scores did not do a good job in identifying the best applicants. These tests have significantly fallen in use in the admission process. Will participation in rankings be far behind?

ASCE goes to the movies with Cities of the Future. The movie's trailer look's great... but something seems to be missing. When you see an artist's depiction promoting the future, whether it's two years, two decades, or two centuries into the future, there's only blue sky, modern buildings, and sleek transportation, but an utter paucity of people actively participating in their future city. Even the few historical photos show little evidence of crowds, urban decay, or actual weather.

Years ago when viewing artist's depictions of the Santa Ana Trolley (now under construction) I was struck that the sparse pedestrians were all athletically built, well-dressed, casually sitting, talking, or walking, and white. Is our hope for the future some unachievable utopia that we embrace in these depictions even though we know it will never come to pass?

Excited to find this dust ball just days after A Modest Proposal 4 (23 January 2024), my post that called for politicians to be licensed just as doctors, lawyers, and civil engineers must be. The Week (2 February 2024) reports that Sooner State Senator Nathan Dahm has proposed a law to require journalists to be licensed, carry liability insurance, subject to drug tests, and be trained in propaganda free reporting. Dahm would have my support if someone would explain the First Amendment to him and have him replace the word "journalists" with "politicians" in his bill. Dahm, who has thrice unsuccessfully run for federal office is termed out from state office in 2024.

Carl Weathers passed away on 1 February 2024. Years ago, I had the pleasure of talking with him at length at a Lahaina Galleries dinner with painter Dario Campanile, an artist that Weathers collected (and posed for). I have two of Campanile's paintings hanging in my office, Night Guardian and Within and Without.

"Success is not about the destination, it's about the journey." Carl Weathers

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

However you see the upcoming month, there's an extra day this time to leap past.

"In February there is everything to hope for and nothing to regret." Patience Strong

"The day and time itself: late afternoon in early February,
was there a moment of the year better suited for despair?" Alice McDermott

The OC Register reports that "insurance analysts at LexisNexis found that, when vehicle owners switch from gasoline-powered cars to electric cars, they tend to crash more." Several reasons were proposed, several focused on the performance differences, but also on the physical layout of displays, interface with brake and accelerator pedals, and perceived speed.

Hertz recently announced the sale of 20,000 electric from its fleet, with the company saying that drivers kept crashing the cars," perhaps for the reasons outlined above. While most domestic EVs are Teslas, but LexisNexis saw similar trends in China.

Since you may be wondering, I attempted a web search for "mobility wallets" and my horrendously bad but fast keyboard skills used in a poorly lit room instead produced a search for Wobbly Mullets. For those with interests in rugby, this might be something worth following. For all others, read on...

In NextCity, Maylin Tu (15 January 2024) writes about an experiment in L.A. with mobility wallets.

"In April, a year-long Universal Basic Mobility pilot project ends that gave 1,000 lower income South Los Angeles residents $150-a-month debit cards for shared transportation such as the bus, train, Uber rides, bike rental, e-bike rental or purchase, and EV car rental. The overarching mobility program may inspire a new fare system in time for the 2028 Olympics.

There are benefits of such a program, but I have some questions. If successful, would this program help move users to less dependency on a publically-provided wallet, or would it lock them into a status quo of mobility and accessibility, and also limit economic opportunity? Is such a program sustainable? With a monthly payment of $150, going from 1,000 to 10,000 participants increases the annual costs from $1.8 to $18 million.

Performance: 84 percent of program funds expended went toward Taxi and Ride Hailing, with 12 percent to Metro bus and rail (it was unclear from the article what portion of allocated funds were for administration and research, but I would expect that the 4 percent that went toward other modes probably has much larger costs than benefits). A project researcher, Caroline Rodier, said they were "surprised that there was so much use of Uber and Lyft." I would have expected these results. The initial explosion of ride hailing was precisely because these services were heavily subsidized by venture capital (these rides have since become proportionately more expensive).

It appears that users aspire to modal utility approximating that of private cars and reflects the underlying demand. If the approximately 40,000 transit trips versus about 26,000 trips by ride hailing was due to "pretty good transit" service in the area (good, as in accessibility, as in affordability) raises the question as to how would this work in transit-poor areas. This also appears to be subsidizing ride hailing operations such as Uber and Lyft Do these companies provide a discount to holders of Mobility Wallets?

Bottom Line: From project researchers:

"For any Mobility as a Service (MAAS) program to work, cities need a reliable transportation network that doesn't require driving a privately-owned vehicle."

Automobile Blues by Lightnin' Hopkins (with potential credits to Sonny Terry and Brownie McGee) is a low blues shuffle, covered by too many artists to mention.

I seen you drivin' 'round, babe, in your brand new automobile
I seen you drivin' 'round, babe, in your brand new automobile
You're lookin' happy baby, with your handsome driver at the wheel

And me, I'm flying in my taxi
Taking tips, and getting stoned

The problem is not the presence of AI but the absence of I.

In the LA Times (12 January 2024) Ryan Fonseca asks Can AI help make our roads less congested and deadly? I don't usually agree with Fonseca's over-simplification of the many problems with the state's highway system but here he nicely summarizes my sentiments:

"The state's transportation agency wants to put AI to use to help make our commutes less of a soul-wrenching nightmare ... Caltrans is asking tech companies to pitch generative AI tools that could help the state reduce congestion and make roads safer ... Anyone else have deja vu? For more than a century now, government leaders and an array of industries have been pitching us on the cure for our traffic troubles. More lanes! More transit! Carpool and express lanes! Flying Ubers! Autonomous vehicles! To the tunnels! Spoiler: Nothing has worked (short of a historic global pandemic) to unclog our roads."

Congestion is not necessarily a problem. If people are accommodated now in their travel demands, perhaps with some level of congestion, then an equilibrium of sort exists. Added capacity would not increase their trip making directly, but could alter the component parts of a trip: time-of-day, route, mode, and even destination. These are not new trips. These are old trips being accommodated on the new network. Is there a downside? If shifts in current trips result in new destinations, potentially increasing VMT, then there could be an increase in environmental impacts. This would depend on vehicle technology (for example, EVs) and traffic performance (eliminating the stop and go nature of congested flows can translate into lower emissions on even longer trips due to vehicle speed profiles).

Can there be new trips being made? In two cases, there can be new trips, on average, being made. The first could occur if demand has been suppressed. If an average person is traveling less than what that average person would be traveling under ideal conditions, then they would tend to travel more (restricted by time and money budgets) due to improved performance resulting from the increased capacity. But this will not get worse, on average, than it was before the improvement because the same pressures to not travel will return. The second case for new trips is growth. More people means more travel. This is real induced demand. Yes, growth induces demand, whether it be for schools, water, and other services. This growth can be population and/or employment, but can also be income (higher income will tend to increase trip rates). Fonseca quotes Michael Manville of UCLA on the AI proposal:

"You're telling me we need advanced AI to figure out that it doesn't do much good to widen the f-ing road? We've known this since like 1920."

SmartCities Dive (Dan Zukowski, 17 January 2024) joins the premature parade for electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The basic technology exists but so do questions regarding the scalability and market acceptance before one can assess potential benefits. The problems centers on space: for Take-Off (TO) and for Landing (L) but, more critically, the space between the TO and the L. The article claims that two manufacturers are moving close to commercial operations but also calls for government infrastructure investment.

My take? This mode is (a) not needed, (b) lacking necessary technology (charging infrastructure, low weight batteries), (c) clearly not addressing any market other than that already served by helicopters for those who can afford it, and (d) ignoring limitations of exactly how much room is "up there" and in what vertical space and over whose property can they fly. See: Defining... Flying Cars (5 July 2023). The FAA (May 2023) framework:

"envisions eVTOL operations beginning at a low rate, flying existing routes and using infrastructure such as helipads and vertiports. But the FAA expects operations to increase over time, serving multiple routes, with the onset of automation and other advanced technologies."

Cleaning is a necessary chore but, as time goes by, somehow the need increases while the desire decreases, at least when you do the cleaning yourself. Dust somehow comes from nowhere and everywhere, settling when you're not looking, on life, the universe, and everything. John Thorne wrote:

"Dust, like madness, blindness, moral decay, doesn't appear out of the blue with the sudden
violence of a summer storm. It drifts down softly, an incessant, imperceptible sift."

"is as close as some of us will ever come to sanity, to knowing what it
might be like to have, for once and forever, the murk all swept aside."

"The dust, the gentle legacy you left behind, is falling softly on my mind."

* "We are but dust and shadow." Horace.

On one hand, it's a bit refreshing to have 21st century robber barons from the transportation field rather than from information technology. On the other hand, it's never-the-less a return to the feeding trough for the wealthy with real estate holdings to rely on the public sector to fund their private sector toys. Shades of the 19th century with transcontinental railroads and southern California's sprawl-inducing Pacific Electric Railway. See The Last Spike (17 June 2020).

SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (24 Jan 2024) reported that $2.5 billion for tax-free bonds, following $3 billion in other Federal grants, will be forthcoming as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, for millennial robber barons to build their Brightline, "90 minutes from LA to Vegas" (actually, 130 minutes). But it's scary how close Donald Fagan was over 40 years ago with his solo "I.G.Y." (my changes).

Standing tough under stars and stripes we can tell
This dream's in sight
You've got to admit it
At this point in time that it's clear
The future looks Bright
On that train all graphite and glitter
Over sand by rail
Ninety minutes from LA to Vegas
(more leisure time for artists everywhere)

We'll be clean when their work is done
We'll be eternally free yes and eternally young

You only get one shot to make a good impression. For Southern California, that's two weeks in July 2028 when Olympics visitors will judge everything from American cuisine ... to US infrastructure.

Full Disclosure: When California began its push for high speed rail from LA to San Francisco, I did suggest that an LA to Vegas route made a hell of a lot more sense (especially if gambling was allowed on the train). FYI: I've traveled several times by road and rail through Vegas (that's through, not to, as in passing through on the way to other locations and activities). But the private owners of the Brightline HSR in Florida, and the capitalist Sodom and Gomorrah that is Las Vegas, should not need public sector funding.

The word "accio" is summoning charm, from the Latin verb "accerso" meaning "to summon or fetch." Does this mean that the word "accident" essentially means "asking for a dent?' Some people, particularly those not driving cars, comment that there are no accidents, implying there is always some intent, active or passive. Balderdash. By the way, "balder" is cognate with the Danish "balder" meaning "noise, clatter," and "dash" means "to strike suddenly and violently." A noisy and sudden strike ... like an accident. One thing that's not accidental are those comments.

We should all be focused on the increased prevalence of mistruths, lies, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories, and even more so on those who create and perpetuate them. While doctors, lawyers, engineers, and many other professionals cannot lie without serious repercussions (including loss of license), politicians are immune and are increasingly finding that public opinion is no longer a sufficient deterrent.

Registration is proposed as a proactive strategy and term limits are proposed as a reactive strategy for all those running for and holding any public office. Violation of these requirements would result in immediate dismissal from candidacy or office and a ban from further public office, elected or appointed. The details of the registration process can be left to public interest groups but I recommend that both strategies be paired since those already in office would likely oppose term limits but may support registration of those seeking public office. It will likely be an upstream battle so I offer the following theme music, sung to the tune of Cole Porter's Let's Do It:

Doctors do it, lawyers do it
Even civil engineers do it
Let's have politicians do it, too.

The MCATs, LSATs, and FE tests
These are taken by the very best
Why don't politicians do it, too?

To ply your trade, you need your brain
A license to practice must be gained
But that's not what we make politicians do.

Lives depend on the jobs we do
And on the policies and laws we choose
Only licensed politicians should make these rules.

What is the proper use of commas? Are they comparable to silent pauses in oral communications, either music or speaking? From the bizarrely beautiful Home Body, in comparing chairs to dogs, John Thorne writes:

Dogs, as such, don't exist in nature, nor, unlike, say, horses, do they do well when returned there.

If you're like me, you'll need to Google "Mullen ONE." If not, but are otherwise indisposed, the Mullen ONE is a $35,000 EV cargo van eligible for the $7,500 IRS Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit. The Mullen ONE gained certification from the California Air Resources Board as a zero-emission vehicle and had previously received a certificate of conformity from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This as an upside of the emerging market, having not been aware of a conventional cargo van option. A colleague mentioned that Amazon has about 12,000 electric delivery vans (not regular cargo vans). These vehicles were co-created with Rivian but it turns out that Amazon owns 17 percent of Rivian. Note that car manufacturers have often owned car renting companies as a means of syncing production and sales.

On the downside, Hertz plans to sell 20,000 electric vehicles as it shifts back to gas-powered cars (OC Register 12 Jan 2024), amounting to about a third of its domestic EV fleet. Their reason is weak demand and high repair costs for EVs. A colleague commented from personal experience that a significant effort is required to determine charging needs, including whether local lodging have chargers, does the EV need to be returned fully charged, and other EV-related issues.

In what could be an upside or a downside, The Economist eNews (11 January 2024) reports on:

"the astonishing rise of the electric-car industry in China, which was probably the world's biggest car exporter in 2023. An influx of cheap Chinese electric vehicles is coming to Western markets -- if protectionist politicians do not stand in the way.

With the risk of unintentionally introducing a Karen-like meme, I responded to a SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (19 January 2024) poll "Will standardizing overhead electric messaging improve highway safety?" About 18 percent of respondents said that, yes, drivers comprehend familiar messages faster and messages that are 'clever' may distract. However, 74 percent said that, no, 'clever' messages get noticed by drivers.

I wrote to SmartBrief that the poll may have missed an important aspect of innovation. While 'clever' or 'funny' messages may get your attention, will the real message be comprehended and for how long will that content be remembered? I compared this to 'clever' or 'funny' TV commercials but I also asked whether a tornado warning such as 'Don't be a Dorothy' would be a good way to get a driver's attention. I'm not a fan of banning things and I'm not sure whether this has been carefully studied. I can only hope that a comprehensive study was completed before FHWA released their 1,100 page standardization rules.

I've always been aware of, or tried to make, connections between facts, observations, events, and people, even when seemingly unrelated. There's very little in my formative years about which I'm certain, but of this I am. Does this mean I'm good at games such as Wordle or Connections? Not necessarily. I play Wordle, acceptably well, but I'm more interested in the connections between words than between letters. After several attempts, moderately successful, I stopped playing Connections because it's a zero sum game (from 16 words, identify four mutually exclusive groups of four words) and due to a trait it shares with Jeopardy, having categories for which I have no knowledge because I have no interest. I admit that there are interesting connections in both, just not ones that resonate with me. Why, I don't know. I often played Connections with a friend, but the connection was not really the game.

So, I just played Connections, the game, for the first time in months. It was easy as the four groups emerged immediately. Too easy, so, just as it would have been if too hard, I lost interest to do it again. Connections are sometimes easy to start and, while games end quickly, real life does not. Real life does not have fixed rules although players seem to have their own amorphous rules -- rules that, at best, only become apparent when they're broken. The difference between these games and connections in life is that life's never easy, never final, and often inexplicable. Maybe I need to stop playing.

... I gotta wear ... a lead suit? A recent 1440 Daily Digest (12 January 2024) provided a link to "A Timeline of the Distant, Distant Future," an expansive graphic by Information is Beautiful which starts out sort of depressing but then deteriorates all together. It's sort of like finding out that songs such as Timbuk 3's The Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades (below) do not actually reflect an optimistic outlook (search for song meanings). Why does it seem that forecasting the future over short time frames is often optimistic, but rarely so over astronomical time spans? Some people have no real problem with human life spans, but they don't usually think about the lifespan of everything else. Literally everything else. Of course, the time-line does not reflect any advancements that may positively alter the projected death and destruction. In any case, none of us will be around to see it. Please note that Timbuk 3's lyrics are from their acoustic version, which has a different final verse.

Blowin' up the lab, blowin' the professor
Torn between two evils, I always pick the lesser
I'm doing all right, getting good grades
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades

Daniel Kahneman distinguished between two different thought systems: intuitive versus reasoning:

"Intuitive decision making, which encompasses heuristics, although generally more efficient and rapid, makes the agent potentially subject to errors due to framing effects or violations of dominance."

SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (9 January 2024) references an article that suggests that bounded rationality may be limiting in civil engineering education and practice. TechXplore summarizes the paper by Nick Francis and Esther Norton:

"The 'new-model engineer' will break free from the 'bounded rationality' that characterizes the traditional siloed approach to education. Instead, they will develop a holistic understanding of civil engineering as part of a wider socio-environmental system. This change will be enabled by rebalancing teaching across the three domains of learning, valuing skills and behaviors as well as pure technical knowledge."

An annotated idea atlas mapping the thoughts of thinkers who witnessed slices of the evolution of human pathways from game trails to super highways and everything in between, and imagined all that is to follow. These "roads" all provide civilization's connections. The previous post reflected on the creation of roadways since we walked out of Eden. A more elegiac perspective is now presented with quotes by Robert Moor taken from his 2016 book On Trails that reflects intentional and unintentional aspects of human travel behavior.

Our world is a work of art in progress, with millions of artists and billions of brush strokes:

"I now see the earth as the collaborative artwork of trillions of sculptors. When we build hives or nests, mud huts or concrete towers, we re-sculpt the contours of the planet. And when we walk, we create trails. The question we must ask ourselves is not whether we should shape the earth, but how." Robert Moor

"Over the course of thousands of years, Native Americans devised a beautifully functional network of paths, not knowing that those same trails would later be used by a foreign empire in its slow invasion. Along their trails flowed surveyors, missionaries, farmers, and soldiers, as well as diseases, technology, and ideology. Then, when a critical mass of foreigners had moved into tribal lands, it was along these trails that Native families were hauled from their home ... We tend to think of colonialism as an unstoppable wave, or a platoon of tanks moving smoothly across the plains, when in fact it is more like the trickle of an ever-multiplying virus through an arterial network." Robert Moor

"In the end, we are all existential pathfinders: We select among the paths life affords, and then, when those paths no longer work for us, we edit them and innovate as necessary. The tricky part is that while we are editing our trails, our trails are also editing us. The same rule applies to our life's pathways: collectively we shape them, but individually they shape us." Robert Moor

"We are born to wander through a chaos field. And yet we do not become hopelessly lost, because each walker who comes before us leaves behind a trace for us to follow." Robert Moor

A trace, when followed, becomes a trail. Likewise a trail, when transformed by technology, becomes a road, a highway, a flight path; a copper cable, a radio wave, a digital network. With each innovation, we're able to get where we want to go faster and more directly -- yet each new gain comes with a feeling of loss. From trains to automobiles to airplanes, each time the speed of connection quickens, travelers have expressed a sense of growing alienation from the land blurring past our windows. Robert Moor

Instead of being immersed in an endless continuum of landscapes, we increasingly experience the world as a network of 'nodes and connectors': homes and highways, airports and flight routes, websites and links. The importance of place and context -- those two words whose meanings twine in the word environment -- necessarily wanes as we transition to a world of nodes and connectors." Robert Moor

This annotated idea atlas maps the thoughts of thinkers who witnessed slices of the evolution of human pathways from game trails to super highways, and everything in between, and imagined all that is to follow. These "roads" all provide civilization's connections. Our ancestors branched out and walked out of Eden and eventually realized that:

"Every ravine will be filled and every mountain and hill will be brought low, the crooked
places will become straight and the uneven places will become smooth roads."
Luke (3:5)

"When there is activity or enlargement, or a liberalizing spirit of any kind, then there is intercourse and travel, and these require roads. So if there is any kind of advancement going on, if new ideas are abroad and new hopes rising, then you will see it by the roads that are building. Nothing makes an inroad without making a road. All creative action whether in government, industry, thought or religion creates roads."
Horace Bushnell (1846)

"The earth be spanned, connected by network ... The oceans to be crossed, the distant brought near, The lands to be welded together."
Walt Whitman

"The time will come when New York will be built up, when all the grading and filling will be done,
and when the picturesquely varied, rocky formations of the Island will have been converted into formations for rows of monotonous straight streets, and piles of erect buildings."
Frederick Law Olmsted

"Roads rule the world: not kings nor congresses, not courts nor constables, not ships nor soldiers. The road is the only royal line in a democracy, the only legislature that never changes, the only
court that never sleeps, the only army that never quits, the first aid to the redemption of any nation, the exodus from stagnation in any society, the call from savagery in any tribe, the high priest of prosperity, without beginnings of days or end of life ... The road is umpire in every war, and when
the new map is made, it simply pushes on its great campaign of help, hope, brotherhood, efficiency, and peace."
Anonymous (c. 1917)

"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

"Here was art undoubtedly -- all roads, in the ordinary sense, are works of art."
Edgar Allan Poe

"When we get these thruways across the whole country, as we will and must, it will be possible to drive from New York to California without seeing a single thing."
John Steinbeck

"Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the road."
Jack Kerouac

"A road is a strip of ground over which one walks. A highway differs from a road not only because it is solely intended for vehicles, but also because it is merely a line which connects one point to another. A highway has no meaning in itself. Its meaning derives entirely from the two points which it connects. A road is attribute to space. Every stretch of road has meaning in itself and invites us to stop. A highway is the triumphant devaluation of space, which thanks to it has been reduced to a mere obstacle to human movement and a waste of time."
Milan Kundera

"Demand refers to trips and capacity refers to flows on roads. The connecting link is found in the distribution of trips over the network according to the principle that traffic follows shortest routes in terms of average cost."
Beckmann, McGuire, and Winsten (1956)

"Man's real home is not a house but the road. Life itself is a journey to be walked on foot."
Bruce Chatwin

"The road reaches every place. The short cut only one."
James Richardson

"And all the roads we have to walk are winding
And all the lights that lead us there are blinding."
Noel Gallagher

And you may ask yourself, Where is my beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself, Where does that highway go?
And you may ask yourself, Am I right? Am I wrong?
And you may ask yourself, "My God! What have I done?"
Talking Heads

SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (10 January 2024) reports on an article in Government Technology that LA is looking to ramp up green transportation ahead of 2028 Olympics:

Los Angeles is preparing for the 2028 Summer Olympics by electrifying transportation and investing in charging infrastructure. The Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator's Matt Petersen sees the Olympics as 'an inflection point' to spur collaboration toward the long-term goal.

Jennifer Ouellette (3 January 2024) presents evidence in Ars Technica that "opposites don't really attract. The personality traits included in the study discussed were based on the so-called Big Five basic personality traits (neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness). Other traits considered included educational attainment, IQ, political values, religiosity, substance use, a range of body type factors, and various attributes of the human maturation process.

Study analysis revealed that the strongest correlations for couples were for "birth year and traits like political and religious attitudes, educational attainment, and certain IQ measures." There's also the unknown of whether the original attraction was based on similarities or if the similarities developed over time in successful relationships.

There's a shitload of personality factors, tests, and interpretations available as part of popular psychology. I've done both background study and completed tests but I've not really discovered anything truly new about me. I have discovered that many people I've met have tried these tests and most of them didn't seem to be surprised by the results nor interested in changing their behavior or choices as a result.

They say that the Inuit have 50 Words for Snow (so does Kate Bush). These words are not synonyms in the conventional sense but polysynthetic expressions that describe different types of snow. I've always notice the prevalence of words in the field of transportation that have 'tr' as the first two letters. These words, however, have similar etymologies but do not have the same meaning, even if many people, laymen and professionals alike, often use them interchangeably. I made a list of transportation words that begin with "tr" and will focus here on my gold standard two dozen:

traffic, transit, transportation, transshipment, travel, trip,
tractor, trailer, train, tram, trolley, truck,
trace, track, trail, trajectory, transfer, traverse, traipse, tread, trek, trot, troop, trudge

First, I examine the etymology of the word travel, which I found to have a somewhat negative context:

travel (v.)
late 14c., "to journey," from travailen (1300) "to make a journey," originally "to toil, labor" (see travail). The semantic development may have been via the notion of "go on a difficult journey," but it also may reflect the difficulty of any journey in the Middle Ages. ... Related: traveled; traveling, from Old French travailler (meaning to work strenuously, toil) ... and from Vulgar Latin trepaliare "to torture, from Late Latin trepalium, or instrument of torture.

travel (n.)
late 14c., "action of traveling," from travel (v.). Travels "accounts of journeys" was recorded from 1590s.

Second, I examined the etymology of the word trip, which I found to have a more positive context:

trip (v.)
late 14c., "tread or step lightly and nimbly, skip, dance, caper," from Old French triper "jump around, dance around, strike with the feet" ... (12c.), from a Germanic source (compare Middle Dutch trippen "to skip, trip, hop; to stamp, trample," Low German trippeln, Frisian tripje, Dutch trappen, Old English treppan "to tread, trample")

trip (n.)
"act or action of tripping" (transitive), early 14c., from trip (v.); the sense of "a short journey or voyage" is from mid-15c.; the exact connection to the earlier sense is uncertain.

In 2016 pianist Ludovico Einaudi performed Elegy for the Arctic live on an arctic ice flow. A high-point in human culture is used to emphasize the low-point in the impact of human culture on the Earth. All of our advances -- our economics, sciences, and yes arts -- that allowed the growth in human populations, which includes grand pianos and the ships and helicopters that were used to bring that piano to the arctic ice flow, are reflected. It is ironic that this elegy itself contributes to the climate change diminishing that ice flow, and ironically potentially diminishing if not ending human culture. I do get the message, and this other message that others may not be getting. But I may be missing yet another.

A blog is an online journal typically authored by a single individual in an informal style, which posts regularly updated content in reverse chronological order, usually on a single or narrow range of topics. Many years ago I was seeking a means to express ideas without doing a deep dive but instead reflecting a thin slicing of the topic du jour. Recognizing that most intellectual conversations were never satisfying, I decided to post what I deemed to be "random musings on time, space, and the human condition." A bit poetic, perhaps, but this expressed both the depth (random musings) and the breadth (time, space, and the human condition) of just what I wanted to accomplish.

On the Corner of Cervantes and Coltrane achieves my goal but may not fall under the definition of what most people would consider a blog. it's not on a blogging platform, it provides no interaction with potential readers, it doesn't have a defined focus, it mostly reflects immediate or even preliminary thoughts, and many of the posts are quite brief. From this perspective, it may make sense that the blog be re-named Sudden Blogging, which reflects at least the brevity of Sudden Fiction works that have been compiled for many years.

I offered a brief explanation of the blog in On the Corner (1 September 2022) and again in Words and Meaning (1 January 2023). I can't decide on a re-naming let alone any redirection, so it's appropriate that I remain On the Corner of Cervantes and Coltrane.

A recent Washington Post poll said that a quarter of Americans believe that the FBI instigated the January 6th insurrection. I admit it's possible that 25 percent of all 330 million Americans are likely to believe anything (heck, even I believe this WAPO poll) but something has to get the 'ball of confusion' rolling. That would be Me/Now. There are two possibilities. Either Me/Now is correct about the FBI which proves that Me/Mow has no ability to manage his own federal agencies, disqualifying him from ever holding any responsible position again, or he's simply lying, which the other 75 percent of Americans know is his regular self-serving behavior, which also should disqualify him from office. I do understand that some of the 25 percent, like Me/Now, may actually know better but simply do not care.

Today's SmartBrief for Civil Engineers poll yielded surprising results. When asked "What percentage of people who commit to a resolution succeed in keeping it" 90 percent of readers responded 15 percent. However, a 2002 Journal of Clinical Psychology study found that 46 percent keep their resolutions (2 January 2024).

A more recent study found that about 55 percent of survey respondents "considered themselves successful in sustaining their resolutions." Approach-oriented goals were more successfully maintained than avoidance-oriented goals. Note that this study was conducted in Sweden where far fewer people make such resolutions and the sample was disproportionately female and highly educated.

I resolve to not make potential life-altering decisions based on random calendar dates.

With no change in the federal fuel tax since 1993, increased vehicle fuel efficiency, and the growth of electric vehicles (EV), the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) has been kept afloat by transfers from the general fund since 2008. Congress is considering the Stop EV Freeloading Act (S. 2882) to supplement (I assume to eventually replace) the current tax on fossil fuels. Sponsors say it's designed to ensure fairness, although one must wonder given the name of the bill and the odd provision to exclude hybrid vehicles. On one hand, the bill makes sense because all vehicles cause wear and tear on roads and revenues are needed. On the other hand, the federal government is also subsidizing EV purchases with tax rebates on certain models, all in an effort to increase EV adoption. The bigger problem, and one that exists for all proposed alternative revenue streams, is that the bill doesn't distinguish between high- and low-use vehicles. A feature of the fuel tax was that more fuel-efficient vehicles paid less per mile, which would effectively provide an equity option to reduce one's cost of driving). This is not as simple as a mileage (VMT) fee (which would be difficult and expensive to implement) and which would not reflect the lower cost of lighter, more fuel efficient vehicles traveling the same number of miles. Jay Landers and the American Society of Civil Engineers provides a summary (2 November 2023).

For many years, Martin Gardner used to write a column in Scientific American entitled "Mathematical Games." He was succeeded by Douglas Hofstadter who named his anagrammatic column "Metamagical Themas." In December 1979, Gardner's column "A Pride of Problems, Including One that is Virtually Impossible", included what has become known as "The Impossible Problem." Gardner stated it as:

Two numbers are chosen from the range of positive integers greater than 1 and not greater than 20. Only the sum of the two numbers is given to mathematician S. Only the product of the two is given to mathematician P.
On the telephone S says to P: "I see no way you can determine my sum."
An hour later, P calls back to say: "I know your sum."
Later S calls P again to report: "Now I know your product."
What are the two numbers?

In an internet searches today, I came across some columns addressing why January 1st marks the beginning of the year. I noted that the last four of the year's months begin with the Latin for seven (Septem), eight (Octo), nine (Novem), and ten (Decem) and that March 1st used to be the start of the year. Time keeping has been a human endeavor since well before written records were kept but the arbitrariness has always puzzled me.

Soon afterwards, while reading A Box of Matches, I saw that Nicholson Baker's Emmett expresses, in January, his fondness of having twelve months in the year and it's congruity with a deck of cards. Emmett does lament that there are not enough months but doesn't clarify why. It did, however, remind me of proposals to increase the uniformity of the calendar by having 13 months, each with four weeks, for a total of 364 days, with an added "New Year's Day" not part of any month or week. Getting the world to accept this is unlikely, but this scheme offers great congruity -- a deck of cards with 13 cards in each of four suits in juxtaposition to 13 months each with four weeks.

A common theory as to why there are 52 cards in a deck comprising 4 suits each with 13 cards is the calendar analogy with 52 weeks in a year, four seasons, and 13 weeks in each season. The court of twelve royals (the face cards) is said to represent the twelve months of the year, with a suit of three royals for each season. I also noticed that for Spades, Hearts, and Diamonds, the royals face the same way (Spades right and the red royals left). I could not find why the exception is Clubs where the Jack is the sole black royal that faces right. We've always had jokers and now we have the jack of clubs with whom to deal. While there are various types of decks of cards in use, here we refer to only what is deemed the French-suited deck originating in the 15th Century.

While the seasons may seem arbitrary, they are fixed by the annual solstice and equinox dates defined by the Earth's rotation around the sun. The months, on the other hand, are arbitrary, corresponding loosely with the phases of the moon. Why has the French-suited card deck become most common? Why does the solution to the Impossible Problem and its formal mathematics seemingly aligned with human time keeping? Synchronicity?

The catchy "57 Varieties" was a Heinz marketing ploy, originally associated with pickles, then general Heinz products (but only briefly were there actually 57 of them). The only connection I could find to California was a 1995 lawsuit that found Heinz was under-filling its ketchup bottles. Springsteen wrote "57 Channels (and Nothin' On)" as a song that, superficially, says even with many media choices there's nothing worth your time, perhaps a comment on the general emptiness of life. There's likely no magic in the number 56 when it comes to housing laws but one has to ask with all these laws being signed by the Governor one week in the Fall, shouldn't they have been packaged in a more comprehensive and considered manner? Then again, maybe they did combine two laws so no one could compare their efforts with ketchup or bad television choices (well, almost no one).

Ketchup bottles come up short, and California sues.
TV time will drive you mad, and make you sing the blues.
Politicians want more housing, so they change the rules.
The load we bear is emptiness, we spend our days like mules.

Update: "The era of saying 'no' to housing is coming to an end" according to Ben Christopher who writes in the OC Register (3 January 2024):

"If California wants to build its way out of its long term housing shortage, plenty of things stand in its way in 2024: high interest rates, sluggish local approval processes and a persistent shortage of skilled construction workers, among others."

The phrase "the start of the day," emphasizes the early activities that set the tone for the rest of the day. This is usually quite habitual for most people, although it does evolve, often ever so slightly. Nicholson Baker's A Box of Matches is a series of 33 vignettes of early mornings beginning with narrator Emmett making coffee, lighting a fire with a box of wooden matches, and thinking:

"What you do first thing can influence your whole day. If the first thing you do is stump to the computer to check your email, you're going to be in a hungry electronic funk all morning. So don't do it. If you read the paper first thing you're going to be full of puns and grievances -- put that off."

Addendum: Each of the book's chapters begin with Emmett lighting a fire with a match from a box of matches. At the end I found there were 33 chapters so I searched to find how many matches are in a match box. Most but not all have 32 (why I'm not sure). Then I noticed the book's dust jacket displayed, I thought, 32 matches. So I paged through the chapters and found that Chapter 23 starts with the same "Good morning, it's x:yz a.m. but it does not involve a match being struck or a fire being started. Emmett has a fever and instead lies on the cool floor in this very short chapter. So there's only a match lighting a fire in 32 chapters! It was only when writing this that I saw that there was another match on the dust jacket underlining the title. Hmm.

Occasionally, even a nicht so gut date can be oddly satisfying. Such dates start with subtle anticipation and end with subtle befuddlement. What is anticipated? Ending the date befuddled.

On Jeopardy, when someone loses all they had accrued while others are increasing their winnings, Alex Trebek used to tell them to "start building." Last Fall I was spinning my wheels and decided to take a break. Last week, something told me "start building." I never thought this was a game, but I now see that it is the rest of my life.

Excerpt from Clinton McDelbert's Too Much Staff from "One of the Unfortunate Many" (2023):

Hundred people can't help, too busy, serve yourself
Need more bodies, join the line, ain't no reason, ain't no rhyme
Too much staff, too much staff
It'll slow you down, fooling with too much staff

Today, the Earth's population will pass 8 billion, 100 million more people than last year. In the coming year on the planet, an estimated 4.3 births and 2.0 deaths will happen every second.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"In the U.S., around 10 million artificial trees are purchased each season. Nearly 90% of them are shipped across the world from China, resulting in an increase of carbon emissions and resources. And because of the material they are made of, most artificial trees are not recyclable and end up in local landfills."

Don Lee reports in the LA Times (20 December 2023) that the prior trend has reversed in that "thousands more high-earning, well-educated workers have left California than have moved in." While moves to states without a state income tax are common, many of these states have higher rates on other taxes (such as property taxes). Income is taxed by where it's earned but retirement income would not.

"Environmentalists with stock in oil companies. A vocal social media critic with hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in the owners of Facebook and YouTube. Union-backed Democrats making money off the very companies whose worker policies they've criticized."

"There is a huge price tag for lies and deception and a pathetic pursuit for proximity to power."

"No one ever regarded the first of January with indifference." Charles Lamb

From the inner Grinch in most of us:

Wishing you a Happy New Year staying home in your high-density, multifamily dwelling and,
if needed, safe vision zero travel on complete streets via public transit and micro-mobility
within the geo-fence of your 15-minute community.

On Christmas Eve for over 30 years I had Spritzgeback, German sugar cookies, made by my kid's German grandmother (and then by my kids under her watchful and often scolding eye). Many European cultures seem to have such S cookies but the German ones seem unique in that they use almond flour and the ends are dipped in chocolate (unfortunately, to my taste, precious little chocolate). The name is derived from the German spritzen meaning squirt since the cookies have a soft dough that can be squirted into the S shape with a cookie press. After a hearty German meal, suitably plied with beer, many S cookies can be devoured.

They are special, but they're not really so great, at least to American tastes. I'm reminded of a college friend who lauded her grandmother's holiday sugar cookies and, upon tasting one that arrived in the mail, I must say they were the most bland cookies I've ever tasted. It's almost as if all the ingredients with flavor were eliminated (like Nilla wafers without the 'nilla). This was not just my reaction since my friends commented similarly but Stewie, whose grandmother sent her the cookies, said they were everything she remembered. Some years later, I was in Bavaria (I think in Tegernsee) when I entered the most remarkably enticing bakery I have even seen. Seen. The few things I tried all sort of tasted like Stewie's grandmother had made them.

I managed to receive a few S cookies this year, and "they were everything I remembered." While there is a rich cultural history behind these cookies, I think I'll stick to tollhouse chocolate chip cookies which apparently were unintentionally created less than 100 years ago. I mean, you don't eat tradition.

"California is experiencing a 20-year crime low, but retail theft and aggravated assault are up" reports Emily Holshouser in the OC Register (26 December 2023). Before even reading the article, my initial reaction was "no surprise." The overall cultural climate in our country has changed. Those who pose as political leaders are self-interested parties (in both senses of 'party') who have fomented an air of dissatisfaction in a large portion of the population with the way things appear. While this has happened before, this time there is an all too common reaction where insults, intimidation, and even violence have become accepted in public debate. Humans are more often than not shallow thinkers and, unlike the proverbial horse, can be both led to and made to drink the Kool-Aid. It is not surprising that crimes such as aggravated assault have increased. Retail theft, particularly via flash mob, has increased in part by the loosening of social mores but also by media coverage that seems to suggest that the perpetrators often get away. Read the article to consider future expectations based on state zero bail policies, decriminalization, and policing levels. It's always been a question of who has and who does not, but doesn't it seem that some of those who have are now inciting those who don't that it's the other haves that are the source of the have nots problems?

My second most frequent person with whom to disagree, George Skelton, takes on California High Speed Rail (CHSR) in the LA Times (26 December 2023). This time around he's in favor of building the system! His column, "California is moving ahead with bullet train, so let's make it work," confuses money with more important factors. Money is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition. An obscene amount of money might get it built but it will not get it to work. Skelton is still quoting the initial claim of rail travel from LA to San Francisco in under 3 hours. This won't be possible.

The first third, in the central valley, might be done by 2030, but at a cost approximately the same as that initially proposed for the entire system. Despite all of the project snags, that third was the easy part. Shared right-of-way in the Bay Area will limit top speeds and no one has figured out how to get the train over the mountains into LA at a reasonable cost. There is no estimated southern completion date.

Maybe LA to SF is an attractive pair for high speed rail but maybe it's an even more attractive pair for air travel? There are at least six airports in SoCal and at least three in the Bay area that are spaced to provide coverage within both metropolitan areas, something that HSR will not do.

Skelton admits that even he has lampooned HSR "as a too-costly boondoggle and off track from the start." But he has also fallen victim to the Robert Moses strategy of getting stakes in the ground to get the project started so it's more difficult to stop it. He even writes "You don't spend $11 billion on a project, as California already has, then abandon it." But what's worse for a $30 billion train to nowhere? Cut your losses or spend another $100 billion to finish it?

I cannot foresee the future on this one, but I can forecast the potential costs and the many problems completing the system. And who knows what the future of transportation will be in 20 years. Will air travel no longer be an option? Will long distance travel no longer be an option? Will California continue to lose population? Will the central valley remain the productive agricultural area that it is today?

When the high speed rail concept first surfaced I scoffed. The costs were way off (as such transit projects always are) and the forecasts had errors (confusing the number of airline flight numbers with the number of actual planes. I said that a system that might work was a high speed train to Las Vegas that allowed gambling on the train (would immediate return round trips be popular?) Now they're building it.

Read Skelton. I disagree with his conclusions but he provides a useful summary. Wikipedia provides more.

* Apologies to Pye Hastings and Caravan's "The Dog, The Dog, He's at it Again."

Update: (4 December 2023) Eno reports that even with the recent $3.1 billion federal grant, the initial operable CHSR segment between Merced and Bakersfield is still short an estimated $7 billion needed for completion.

If a President is found to be immune from prosecution for any crime committed while President, then this would apply to all Presidents. What if the current President decided that the proper place for a citizen who instigated an insurrection against the U.S. government was a military prison? Whether the seditious conspirator was guilty or not, the current President would be immune from subsequent prosecution for his actions. Could be a win/win for our democracy. Or was Yeats prescient in The Second Coming?

The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.

I wonder if Joan Didion drew from her notebooks when she wrote the essay "On Keeping a Notebook?"

Why did I write it down? In order to remember, of course,
but exactly what was it that I wanted to remember?

"cerebral awareness does not creep back in to bludgeon my blissful
ignorance back to the dark corners of my mind where it belongs"

The impulse to write things down is a peculiarly compulsive one, inexplicable to those who do not share it, useful only accidentally, only secondarily, in the way that any compulsion tries to justify itself.

Who are we, who is each one of us, if not a combinatoria of experiences,
information, books we have read, things imagined? Italo Calvino

Written by Baxter and Moore 76 years ago, and recorded by, like, everybody since:

Merry Christmas, baby, you sure did treat me nice
Merry Christmas, baby, you sure did treat me nice
Gave me a diamond ring for Christmas
Now I'm living in paradise

California's population dropped by 500,000 over the past two years, reported Terry Castleman in the LA Times back in February. The state has been seeing a decline in population growth for years and with the the COVID-19 pandemic net out-migration began, with high housing costs and the option for remote work contributing factors. The categorical trinity of means, motive, and opportunity appears to apply for those who have chosen to take the highway. Perhaps people are leaving the nation's most populous state because, as Yogi Berra famously said, "No one goes there anymore, it's too crowded." The basic problem is congestion: too many people in too many cars. California can accommodate more people by building more homes and transportation systems to accommodate growth, or, by not building more homes and transportation systems to effectively encourage people to leave. But there are other considerations, including resource constraints. This is no longer your parent's California.

In Yoga Journal, Jennifer Alsever discusses (15 December 2023) "Ten easy ways to be mindful, that aren't meditation." These are ways to get your mind to "slow down." Little did I know that I was already doing most of these, albeit perhaps not ideally. Maybe not so much slow down but a shift to autopilot, like a leaf in a stream, letting one's mind go with the flow rather than paddling through obstacles through white water (or through white noise). The annotated list:

1. Get Outside: If you hike, sans earbuds.
2. Pretend You're a Food Critic: Dissect the tastes of your meals and eat slowly.
3. Self-Care with Intention: From washing your face in the morning to brushing your teeth at night.
4. Go Meta: Be aware of your consciousness, delve into your subconscious.
5. Practice Mindful Listening: For some, easier said than done.
6. Single Out Sounds in Music: Story of my life.
7. Pick up a Pen: Sketch, doodle, feel the pen or pencil.
8. Shift Your Perspective: Look at life through different lenses.
9. Look Up: "Out in the woods / Or in the city."
10. Make Anything a Game: Isn't this sort of 1-9?

Music soothes the savage beast. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue.

Something Old:
The Cure's Disintegration (1989) soothed the slow drive down 395 from an exhilarating but exhausting weekend in the Sierra. I've re-visited this of late, especially the last half (including "Untitled"):

Hopelessly fighting the devil futility
Feeling the monster climb deeper inside of me
Feeling him gnawing my heart away hungrily
I'll never lose this pain
Never dream of you again

There's miles between us / But boy, you should've seen us when we met
I loved your anger and / The way you'd catch a stranger in your net

Skeleton is walking / Somewhere I can't say
A skeleton is walking / Come vouch for me one day

And since I lost
I got to walk around and worry
I guess I've walked the darkest avenues
Yesterday I sang a love song
But today I sing the blues

Every bridge is burned / I never learned
The art of loving you
And you've come to be / My nemesis
Through and through

On the Winter Solstice, a quote from Bill Watterson, creator of Calvin and Hobbes:

"I like these cold, gray winter days. Days like these let you savor a bad mood."

Elaine S Povich reports that some public universities are planning to cut funding of humanities programs. My immediate reaction was to compare these humanities programs with athletic programs, although there are two obvious differences. The humanities are degree programs where as athletic programs are not. There are real costs in providing the former but often monetary benefits in providing the latter. The humanities are declining in enrollment (in part due to limited job prospects) while athletic programs have strong donor support. But there's a similarity that should be recognized. Most institutions have athletic programs, although the breadth and depth varies significantly. In a sense, it's market responsive. Not every athletic department can put a Crimson Tide football team on the field. Maybe not every college needs a top quality humanities program on the campus?

It is critically important that broad areas of a college education be reflected in all degree programs. Engineering majors need to know about the humanistic dimensions associated with the science that they are applying to understand the impacts of their work on the world around them. They need to deeply understand the nature of argument, oral and written. These skills are increasingly lacking in both students arriving on campus and in those who are graduating (I also find this lack to be present in some faculty colleagues, particularly those whose academic history does not include sufficient humanistic inquiry).

Engineering encompasses a rather narrow field of inquiry with a broad range of applications. The problem with a basic engineering degree is that there is limited context with respect to the broader impact of most related work, thus, engineering programs need the humanities. The humanities encompass a very broad field of inquiry but with a very limited range of practical applications. Unlike engineering, the humanities offers limited if any directly applicable skills to most job opportunities. The student debt crisis illustrates that we may be producing graduates who do not have the knowledge and skills directly required for most career opportunities.

I disagree with many who make a binary argument: do we provide programs only to feed the job market or do we provide programs to expose all students to multiple modes of inquiry? The reality is that the former without the latter will still produce graduates in demand in the work force, while the latter without the former will not. We need elements of each.

The following blog entry, The Scorpion and the Turtle, is from (29 August 2020) and is disturbingly appropriate once again. Has the statement of wonder posed at the end already been answered?

The Scorpion and the Turtle (29 August 2020)
The scorpion, wishing to try the waters but being a very poor swimmer, asks to be carried on the experienced turtle's back. The turtle, aware of the scorpion's nature, at first refuses but soon succumbs to the promise that the scorpion would not sting the turtle in the back lest they both drown. They whole-heartedly begin the journey. Halfway across, and at no surprise to anyone else, the scorpion repeatedly stings the turtle.

There are several variations to this folktale, each inevitably ending with the scorpion drowning. Some have the turtle suffering a fatal blow and sinking to its death in the river while asking the scorpion what sense this made. The scorpion replied: "It's not a matter of sense, it's just my nature." Other versions have the turtle wise to the scorpion's ways and protecting itself with its carapace. One must wonder whether the turtle today has retained enough wisdom to not trust a scorpion and to be able to survive to face the donkey in future election cycles.

About two and a half years ago I made a Not To-Do List (29 July 2021) of various policies and infrastructure investments that I believed were counter-productive to better transportation. I recently reviewed this list and found it to stand on its own merits. I offer this per procurationem for all those transportation professionals who have not had the opportunity to think about these in time to send Santa their Christmas wishes or to make their New Year's resolutions. Take a look back, to the future.

The Vinegar Tasters is a painting portraying Confucius, the Buddha, and Lao Tzu tasting from a vat of vinegar. Confucius finds it sour, the Buddha finds it bitter, but Lao Tzu, the traditional founder of Taoism, finds it sweet. Their reactions reflect the associated philosophies. Confucianism sees life as sour, in need of rules to keep people on the straight and narrow; Buddhism sees life as bitter, with pain and suffering due to material desires; and Taoism sees life as sweet due to it being fundamentally natural. They have tasted the same vinegar.

In the LA Times, Frank Shyong (1 October 2023) conveys wisdom passed to him from his father. Taoism, which can be thought of as the way, the path, or the road, teaches that happiness comes from harmony with life's larger pattern. Shyong then makes a wonderful jump from the philosophical path to the 405 freeway, concluding that "you can fight the traffic and arrive stressed, or you can try to find peace within the pattern," adding that "the traffic you know is always more palatable than the traffic you don't." Shyong summarizing his driving philosophy based on a Taoist verse:

"If the mountain does not move, move the road. If the road does not move, the person must move.
If the person cannot move, then the mind moves. If the mind cannot move, the perception moves."

"When you wake in the morning, Pooh," said Piglet, "what's the first thing you say to yourself?"
"What's for breakfast?" said Pooh. "what do you say, Piglet?"
"I wonder what's going to happen exciting today?" said Piglet.
Pooh nodded thoughtfully. "It's the same thing," he said.

I first came across the Odd-man Hypothesis in Michael Crichton's novel The Andromeda Strain (1969) that included the fictional theory as to whom would be the less unbiased decision-maker. The novel states that unmarried men are better able to execute the best, most dispassionate decisions in crises and refers to a fictional RAND Corporation report. This is an interesting plot device in both the novel and the film version. In general, people who decide who gets to make decisions are decidedly not unbiased. It's like the observation (perhaps by Douglas Adams) that people who want to be in charge by no means should be allowed to be in charge. Is the reporting equivalent that anyone who wants to be quoted should by no means be quoted?

My version of the hypothesis identifies the Odd-man as the person who is least biased (or fully defines their biases) and stands to gain the least by the decision being made. I've stuck with the original expression because "odd-person" implies something different, as does "odd-ball" and anything else I tried. The key here is that the Odd-man is more likely to make the best, most dispassionate decisions in crises, since they are most free of institutional biases. Without a personal stake in the game, an Odd-man can more likely make a societal optimal choice. Oddly, a true Odd-man may argue that they are not a good candidate and may not want the associated responsibility. Maybe someone who truly wants a responsibility should by no means be allowed to have it.

One frequently hears about how a certain state or federal lawmaker spent N years in office without passing a single bill. Yesterday I saw a re-election flyer about the number of bills passed while a certain lawmaker was in office, without saying in which if any that lawmaker had material involvement. The problem appears to be the performance metrics being utilized. Few people keep track of the number of bills proposed and passed, nor even which are enacted into law, and rarely how their representative actually voted.

What we need is a scorecard, a baseball-type trading card for politicians. It should include aggregate statistics including bills proposed and bills enacted and also what their impact was or is expected to be. There should be career statistics that show the lawmaker's evolution over their time in office, including policy platform and performance. It is important to track how well the lawmaker "plays with others" since politics should involve compromise. It should include their salary in office, staff number and payroll, political contributions from all sources, and plans for the next term.

Political trading cards have been done before, but from a historical rather than policy-oriented perspective. I recognize that most people wouldn't be interested but what if we voted by using these cards? Voting for any candidate requires you to recognize their stats, not just their face or political party? In fact, perhaps it should be only their performance statistics that are used, including highlights of their political platform.

Sometimes Less Is More: One more thing, and the reason I started this post. For every bill passed, a current law must be replaced or moved. That may be the first step needed to "clean-up" government.

Is the two decade decline in national trip rates per capita accelerating? In a prior post regarding the concept of induced demand (see Beware of Darkness (17 January 2023)), the following was provided:

"There are few things stable in transportation demand and performance but, driven by human physiology and celestial mechanics, two things that have always been pretty stable are trip generation rates and travel time budgets. ... national trip rates are actually declining slightly, from 4.09 trips per person in 2001, to 3.79 trips per person in 2009, to 3.37 trips per person in 2017 (NHTS). Daily person-miles traveled show a somewhat lower but still declining trend."

"Axios reports that "The number of annual average daily walking trips dropped 36 percent in the contiguous U.S. between 2019 and 2022," according to analysis by StreetLight Data. There was at least a 20 percent decline in all states and metropolitan areas analyzed over the three year period (using anonymized data from various mobile devices) ... Active transportation (walking and biking combined) accounted for ten percent of overall trips in 2022, a decrease from 14 percent in 2019."

"An interesting comparison of gasoline consumption and federal gasoline taxes was provided by Eno's Jeff Davis. A Tale of Two States (1 December 2023) which compared California and Texas. ... the average Californian drove 1,627 fewer annual miles than the average Texan in 2022, and California's per capita gasoline consumption has dropped by almost 10 percent since 2007 while it has increased in Texas by 11 percent. California's state gas taxes are much higher with Californians paying an average of $4.71 per gallon of regular gas versus $2.71 on average for Texans."

What's this all mean? Trips rates per capita are falling, but why? Some potential hypotheses that provide potential explanation for a return to congested roads (not a measure of VMT) despite a significant level of Working from Home (still almost 40 percent (combined full and hybrid Work from Home) is an increase in non-work travel. The thought was that chained trips on the journey to work can be more efficient (distance-wise) than independent trips from home (especially if those trips are not chained). But this implies an increase in trip rates, not a decrease as per NHTS. Another potential contributor could be an increase in delivery trips which would not be counted in household travel diaries (as well as tele-health and other remote services). A reduction of 2 trips per day per person is essentially one round trip. What are the implications?

Grace Toohey and Rachel Uranga write the "Mammoth $2-billion 405 project marks an end to Southland's big freeway era" in the LA Times (1 December 2023).

I find it superbly ironic that the one transportation system strategy reviled by most planners and public transit aficionados -- adding freeway lanes -- may have reached the end of the road, with this final project as the most extreme example of their claim -- HOT lanes. Those who hate adding freeway lanes claim that they only induce demand (which is misleading if not wrong) but HOT lanes actually may induce demand so wealthy individuals can travel by car more frequently, farther, and at any time, while changing nothing regarding network demand or performance on the remaining lanes of the freeway. As The Doors wrote in The End:

There's danger on the edge of town
Ride the king's highway
Weird scenes inside the gold mine

"slowly implementing these express lanes across the region has helped change the public
perception of such tolls as people realize their time savings.

SmartBrief (5 December 2023) also reports that "Southern California finishes last of great highway projects" with completion of the 405 express lanes, the last part of a $2 billion highway improvement project. Future regional growth is expected to be accommodated by different types of travel solutions. Many wouldn't think HOT lanes are a solution to any broad travel problem, if there even are reasonable solutions. SmartBrief readers do not agree that it's the end. About 84 percent of survey respondents think that this will not be the end of highway improvement projects (49 percent because we'll always need upkeep and retrofits, and 39 percent because the "US will remain a nation of highways -- and highway expansions"). Of the 16 percent who did agree that it's the end, 7 percent said that "we will come to regret it" while 9 percent (who forgot their meds?) said the "definition of highways will change or become antiquated, as last-mile solutions dominate, including air." Last mile of what?

A little media context: back on 27 May 2022, Ryan Fonseca of The LA Times wrote:

"Remember when we widened the 405 Freeway in the early 2010s and made driving through the Sepulveda Pass a breeze? Of course you don't, because that five-year, $1 billion dollar project actually increased congestion."

"Nobody has been able to build their way out of freeway congestion by adding lanes and
we are not in a position to do so in L.A. County, because we're fully built out."

Prior Posts:
Transportation is not a simple field thus opinions vary significantly over individual pundits with a broad range of expertise, opinion, and bias, including me. Prior posts include On Whom the Toll Falls (27 July 2023), Kalaka (16 August 2023), and A Degrading Elegy (22 October 2022).

The Hechinger Report (10 December 2023) says that New York State lawmakers are considering discontinuing $327 million in property tax breaks for NYU and Columbia University and directing the resulting revenue to support the City University of New York. Apparently, the tax break applies to non-profits and has been in the State Constitution for 200 years. Changing this requires votes in two consecutive legislative sessions then a statewide ballot. Constitutions, by design, are hard to change, which is precisely why anything other than fundamental rights, government structure, and checks and balances simply does not belong.

Ah, December! The season of grading, often intensive, although not usually for me. A discussion this morning centered on the obvious use of ChatGPT in final papers for a non-engineering course. I've often argued that AI systems and GPS are disruptive technologies with potential grave implications -- see S Is for Slippery Slope (24 August 2023). A comment from McNasty should make it more immediate to some of those who, without thinking, use these technologies which effectively limit if not reduce their abilities to actually think:

"Those who use ChatGPT will be the first whose jobs will be replaced by ChatGPT."

Prelude ... (DJ Waldie's Holy Land)
Where are bare rural fields terraformed into bleak suburban landscapes, where those who have nowhere to be can await the coming of meaning, while enduring the chance arrival and departure of false prophets who claim knowledge but know nothing yet promise future salvation, unaware of the dire outcomes of their vices? As with both rural and urban life, suburban life is subject to ridicule from those beholden to the other options.

How can I find something so chunked into bite-sized pieces, addressing the engineering, planning, and resulting human interaction with the suburban experiment, written by someone who has lived inside the phenomena, be such a frustrating experience, from the beginning to the end? This from someone of similar age, culture, and experience with a 'outside the norm' view of life? I think perhaps that Waldie himself answered this question:

"Perhaps like me, my neighbors have found a place that permits restless people to be still."

... and Fugue (Samuel Beckett's Waiting for Godot)
I doubt I can add anything to nothing, nothing being what many wryly consider to be the subject of Beckett's play. In an early review, Mercier wrote that Waiting for Godot "achieved a theoretical impossibility -- a play in which nothing happens, ... twice." In an oddly parallel manner for which I do not understand my frustration with Waldie's memoir of "suburgatory," I frustratingly may understand Beckett's purgatory.

The development of Waldie's Lakewood California began in 1949 and the original phase was complete in 1953. Contemporaneously, Beckett's Waiting for Godot was written in 1949 and first performed in 1953.

Sometimes it seems that smartphones provide the adrenaline equivalent of insulin pumps to people with too much time on their hands.

A BBC article, "What we can learn from the ancient art of wayfinding" by Sandy Ong (29 November 2023) provides a second opportunity to comment on our increasing surrendering of long-learned abilities to new technologies (see: S Is for Slippery Slope (24 August 2023)):

"Wayfinding is how humans have found their way for most of our existence. It's what enabled the Aboriginals, Arab nomads, and Inuits to journey across monotonous yet shifting landscapes of land, desert, and ice. But it was the sailors of the South Sea -- those from Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia -- whose voyages were most impressive in terms of distance."

"given how our reliance on GPS and other navigational devices means fewer opportunities
for active navigation today. The hippocampus is like a muscle and without regular exercise,
it's a case of 'use it or lose it'."

"all of the elements and forces of nature -- the Sun, stars, moon, waves, currents, clouds, and different animals."

Aside: Years ago I served on a BioSci PhD exam that examined trail use of Yellow-bellied Marmots in California's White Mountains. There was a surprising amount of commonality with human path choice.

The pandemic imposed significant changes on urban behavior and the aftermath is presenting challenges to those who plan, design, and manage our cities. The immediate impacts were well discussed, including huge reductions in office space consumption, loss of core population, and small business closures. Some changes involved the use of urban space such as sidewalks and parking for expanded restaurant operations. Approaching the four year mark in pandemic response, what is the assessment of urban recovery. Peak hour traffic is back but even that has changed since 15-40 percent of workers have not resumed commuting. Transit ridership has not recovered.

Ramani and Bloom published an analysis that demonstrated how the pandemic hollowed out America's biggest cities. Core downtowns in the 12 largest metropolitan areas cumulatively lost about 8 percent of their population in the first two years of the pandemic while low-density zip codes grew by about 1 percent. Some have referred to these hollowed out cores as "donut holes" and ask the question "what should cities put in their donut holes?" A poll by SmartBrief for Civil Engineers provided their readers with options and they responded with housing (18%), public parks (17%), entertainment facilities (5%), transport centers (1%), and combinations of these options (56%). The remaining respondents (4%) said that nothing should fill the hole. If wishes were horses.

On one hand, the hole may contain infrastructure that needs to be maintained (or razed and rebuilt) but without the previous revenue flows that could pay for new land use. On the other hand, city evolution is a long-term (i.e., multiple year, decade, century, millennia) process during which cities ebb and flow. And sometimes die. But it certainly makes a lot of sense to start the imagination process now, not just focused on filling the hole, but on reimagining the city.

An interesting comparison of gasoline consumption and federal gasoline taxes was provided by Eno's Jeff Davis. A Tale of Two States (1 December 2023) which compared California and Texas. In summary:

1. Texas paid more gas tax into the Highway Trust Fund in 2022 than California ($2.913 to $2.735 billion)...
2. ... despite Texas having 9 million fewer residents (39.0 million vs 30.0 million).
3. The average Californian drove 1,627 fewer annual miles than the average Texan in 2022, and...
4. ... California's per capita gasoline consumption has dropped by almost 10 percent since 2007 while it has increased in Texas by 11 percent.
5. Per capita, Texans pay more annually ($97.03) for federal gasoline taxes than Californians ($70.08)
6. The average Texan producing 1.3 metric tons more of CO2 from driving than does the average Californian (4.7 tons vs 3.4 tons).

... was the front end of several conditional questions asked during the first year of the Pandemic which produced massive decreases in travel, both public and private, as work and school went remote. Now, with two years of recovery of travel and activity patterns, some of the questions have been at least partially answered. One of the more interesting ones -- if rush hour dies, does mass transit die with it? -- was asked by Henry Grabar. Well, in most cities rush hour is back in intensity if not in duration and spatial extent, so the rush hour hypothesis has not been met. But what about the transit conclusion?

Without rush hours, or peak periods in general, might transportation supply better match travel demand? Instead of having enough buses to cover peak demand, which then sit unused in off-peak periods, fewer buses could be used more consistently to meet demand that is also consistent over the course of the day. It's the distribution of activities that creates the peaks. The most regular of activities, work and school, create habitual trip frequency, destination, mode, route, and time-of-day behavior corresponding to sharp AM peak periods (with other trip types contributing to somewhat broader PM peak periods). The transit peak hour problem has been defined as the excess resource requirements (vehicles, drivers, fuel) needed for peak demand, with vehicle operators presenting a real problem since the two peaks do not fall within a standard work shift. The pandemic gave us the expression "flattening the curve" for viral exposure rates but this equally describes the travel demand curve that if flattened better matches the level of resources supplied (see Burn the Boats, We're Not Going Back (13 September 2021). If rush hour dies, transit could thrive. However, rush hour has not died, and transit is hurting badly. Just like the pandemic gave us the opportunity to re-consider Working from Home, maybe we should use the absence of transit ridership to re-consider what public transit should be?

In a prior post on Equity (25 January 2022) I discussed not the issue of equity per se but some graphics used to illustrate concepts such as equity versus equality. While the intent of the argument was admirable, the graphics were not. This seems to occur often in the transportation field, perhaps due to the broad range of academicians and practitioners who see things through different lenses. Let's consider some other graphic misrepresentations.

Parking Lots: Another Day with George
In A Day in the Parking Lot with George (21 April 2023), I discussed some graphical results regarding land "dedicated to parking." In this case, it wasn't the graphics themselves, rather, it was the interpretation. Aerial photos and GIS show a large portion of land in urban centers used for parking lots. My argument was with the expression "dedicated to parking." That post also discussed graphics on mode use (see the next item).

Static Space Consumption by Mode
This graphic is so common that there are many similar images (some humorous) but all of them miss the point. Technically, the images support the argument but that argument is incomplete, at best, and thus effectively wrong. There are several images of the same urban street. The first has 40 automobiles consuming most of the street, and the last has a single bus with 40 passengers. Other images may contain bikers and walkers but the point is that cars take up a lot of space -- static space. Transport modes are not stationary by design so static street space is not relevant and the varying benefits of accessibility provided by the car (a larger spatial reach) or non-motorized modes (low cost, low waiting time) cannot be ignored.

All versions of this "modal space consumption" suffer from the same bias in representing travel as a point and not a path. If all 40 trips go from A to B, then that bus looks real good. If 40 different locations for each traveler need to be connected to 40 different destinations, then possibly walk, bike, or even car, depending on distance, would work, but not bus (a Reddit comment said "show me 200 people telecommuting"). Other networks, such as communications, social, or even public utilities, have multiple origins and multiple destinations -- that is why we have networks -- where simple point-to-point connections cannot satisfy all the demand.

The Road Capacity Comparison
Consider the graphic (my apologies but I have not been able to find the original reference). The intent of the comparison was to show that a network of uniform, smaller street will provide more capacity than a hierarchical network of varying facility types more widely spaced (here we are considering only vehicular traffic and other arguments may apply for pedestrian and other mode traffic).

The labels indicate the total number lanes (half in each direction) and assumes that common operational characteristics exist on all roads. Each network has the same number of lane-miles but which has the greater capacity? The argument made was that high-capacity roads interspersed with low-capacity roads would offer less capacity than a grid of equi-capacity roads (will the network with the higher capacity induce demand?). The argument was driven by the assumption that volumes are sufficiently low that no delay is encountered by left turning vehicles at an increased number of uncontrolled intersections on the uniform grid. What's missing is not just a discussion of the veracity of that assumption but also a discussion of demand, routing, traffic control, intermediate entrances and exits, and many other factors. From a fundamental viewpoint, each network with the same lane miles would have the same capacity. Of course demand patterns could change everything.

I understand the desire to use various graphical means to depict a complex problem but, with a small amount of viewer consideration, each of these graphic representations can be seen as misleading if not wrong.

If one's lifestyle embraces urban-living -- higher density of population, jobs, buildings, and activities, with a corresponding dependency on public and shared modes of transportation -- then one tends to be less excited about other choices. Such choices are not specifically rural, or exurban, or suburban, but rather are simply non-urban. Those who love dense urban-living typically cannot understand why anyone would prefer to, or perhaps even should be allowed to, live in other development densities.

Perhaps the most prominent symbols of non-urban living are single family homes and private automobiles. When posting on this topic, I always provide the following disclaimer. I own and live in a 2,000 plus square foot single family home in Irvine, California that sits on leased land and is price-controlled. It's located less than a 10-minute walk from my office. Irvine is located in Orange County which is second in the state to San Francisco in population density. I own two cars but drive relatively little, averaging about 5,000 miles annually over the past ten years. I very much prefer single family homes and personal automobiles over all other options.

Consider the car. Among frequent complaints voiced regarding the automobile are impacts of pollution, safety, and parking. A parallel litany of complaints could be voiced in response by suburbanites about urban denizens, but has not. I find this similar to the long-running feud between San Francisco and LA where San Franciscans complain endlessly about Angelinos while Angelinos appear blissfully unaware of any feud. There are pros and cons associated with all decisions and, let's admit, very few are trying to enumerate them. Potential solutions to emission problems are forthcoming with electric vehicles; safety issues due to vehicle mass not so much. See People in Cars (25 November 2023)

Consider the single family home (SFH). Among frequent complaints voiced regarding the SFH are impacts of land consumption, housing cost, and parking (both on the residential parcel and on street). Keeping wild land wild is an admirable goal but it is foolish to think that it is not people who consume the resources of the planet. While the wealthier consume a disproportionate share, the infrastructure required to create and maintain a city is, as a whole, substantial, perhaps more so than the suburban development valued by many if not most. See People in Houses (27 November 2023)

For many years of my life, this quote by John Geddes was appropriate. Today, it's blue skies and 79 in Irvine.

"December's wintery breath is already clouding the pond,
frosting the pane, obscuring summer's memory."

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

A NextCity report, "Narrower lanes mean fewer traffic accidents," describes research from Johns Hopkins that concludes that narrower lanes can reduce traffic hazards. Something as seemingly simple as this is actually very complex. Researchers discovered that more crashes occurred at speeds of 30-35 mph with 12 feet wide lanes than with lanes only 9-10 feet wide. The study suggested using the space gain for non-motorized travel.

A post by Maylin Tu (28 November 2023) and the SmartTake discussion in SmartBrief for Civil Engineers, each identified some of the complexities. It is not clear how transit buses, trucks, and emergency vehicles would be accommodated. Various benefits and costs likely depend on the context. Not all cities are alike (and not all cities have drivers who are alike). It is also not clear how many domestic cities now have 9-10 foot lanes, but these locations would not be typical regarding performance and accident exposure.

There are other concerns. Wider lanes (as with medians) provide more space for drivers to react which could reduce conflicts, but how does one measure accidents that do not occur? Driver types, ambient traffic, weather, infrastructure, and many other factors vary. What variations existed in the international cities studied, such as the presence of bike lanes or wider pedestrian spaces? What costs would be incurred in any design changes (re-striping, turning movements, traffic control, etc.)? A primary concern of most jurisdictions is to avoid liability. How would this be addressed when significant changes in standards are introduced?

Update: Today's SmartBrief (30 November 2023) provided reader responses to the article. About 28 percent agreed that narrow lanes are safer, 38 percent said that narrow lanes are not the answer to safety issues, and 34 percent thought that narrow lanes might improve safety but cause too many other problems.

Several years ago, I came across a blog post that generated an initial "hmm" but ultimately a "huh?" Prashant Fonseka posted "Traffic as a metaphor for life" and wrote:

"The world is radically changing but we still have traffic and it has, perhaps, not really changed very much at all because it still exists even though it theoretically perhaps shouldn't exist anymore. And it is in this unchanging changing that my metaphor begins."

"Traffic is as expected and natural in our lives today as death and taxes."

"Traffic is suffering. The Buddha said life is suffering, and inevitable. Traffic is as inevitable as life's suffering. The Buddha's solution to eliminating suffering is essentially complete withdrawal from the world and existence. One could avoid traffic by similar means but, short of enlightenment, the inevitable, in practice, holds."

Fonseka has some observations of traffic on (of all places) the 10 in LA, on which he has classified two types of drivers: lane changers and non-changers (is this group already enlightened?). Lane changers versus lane maintainers? The real distinction, as with many aspects of life, are those who are paying attention (the few) versus those who are not (the many). First, those who change lanes are clearly more aggressive, perceive a greater disutility when sitting in traffic, and are usually but not always more experienced drivers. Many actions do not have immediate pay-offs but on average they do, at least for the more skilled and experienced drivers. Similar pay-offs, however, can be obtained for those who are lane maintainers. Pick a good lane (not the slow lane, but the number 1 and 2 lanes will work) and start this game: try to maintain a distance between you and not just the car in front of you but for several cars in front of you, and try to do so by using the accelerator and without hitting the brakes. By not using the brakes your brake lights will not start an upstream wave (you may have only braked momentarily but the chain reaction of braking cars can wreak havoc upstream). You will need to stay sufficiently close so vehicles in adjacent lanes do not cut in and interrupt the evolving dynamics, but not so close that you need to use the brakes. Soon, you will not only see a moving queue, likely at an average speed that is steady and less polluting, but you will also be passing the time learning how to drive. You may or may not get to your destination faster than if you just join the flock and sit in the stop and go 'grazing' that characterizes peak hour traffic.

Are freeways a metaphor for the meso-scale of life? On a micro-scale, we have the body's arterial, neural, and other networks that provide the physical requirements essential for life. On the macro-scale are the movements of people. Pedestrians on sidewalks, especially in mixed mode sidewalk traffic, is as good of a macro-scale representation of flows as vehicles on freeways. From this perspective, it is an individual human whom defines the meso-scale.

Problems inherent to both the micro and macro scales can be similar in cause and effect: physical breaks in the associated networks, and functional breaks in their operations. Our focus on the sanctity of the meso-scale can make it difficult to justify the importance of the micro- and macro-scales, other than when they don't properly function. On these bookend scales, congestion results from too much traffic for the local network supply. When such as event becomes a problem, then the meso-scale realization is threatened and mitigation is in order. This is directly true for the micro-scale and indirectly true for the macro-scale. How does this massing apply to the meso-scale? There can be too many meso-scale entities (humans) relative to the local environment's capacity.

Freeways are infrastructure elements and not technically alive but when we speak of freeways we tend to think of the vehicle flows rather than the underlying pavement. These flows are essentially part of life and thus not technically a metaphor for life. Average commuters spend a significant portion of their daily lives in traffic so traffic, and thus freeways, are parts of lives. A better understanding of freeway traffic, and of one's movement through life, might be accessible via this metaphor.

Some of these ideas flow from Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi's book Flow which proposed that "it is not what happens to us that determines our happiness, but the manner in which we make sense of that reality." Subjectivity over objectivity?

From Holy Land by DJ Waldie (Chapter 274):

"My city acquired the right to the water under its neighborhoods when the city bought the water company Louis Boyar, Mark Taper, and Ben Weingart had formed. The three developers bought the right to the water from the Montana Land Company. The company got its rights from the Bixby family, who bought them with the land from Don Juan Temple, who married into them through his wife Rafaela Cota, who received them as an inheritance from her grandfather Manuel Nieto, who was provisionally granted them by the governor of California, who had them by right of possession of the King of Spain."

"Build more houses! Use less water! California, can you have it both ways?" asked Teri Sforza in the Mercury News (18 July 2022). It may not be as incompatible as it first appears, but not addressed is a more fundamental issue: Do we need more housing at all? Not better housing, but more housing?

PPIC states that "California ranks 49th out of the 50 states on housing units per capita, and the state is pushing, shoving, cajoling and threatening cities and counties to finally fix that." California now has the second highest ratio of persons per housing unit. There are 2.93 Californians for every occupied housing unit, behind only Utah (3.09) and Hawaii (2.93), and far above the 2.53 average of all other states. I didn't see corresponding data on the ratio of people per room (after all, we are the home of the McMansion). But is this a bad thing? Don't most housing proponents want more dense housing, where dense is not just units per acre but people per acre? More cars per person can increase accessibility, but if there are too many people it will also mean greater congestion and less accessibility (this is true of all modes of transport, including walking). Such relationships have multiple interacting variables and the results are neither linear nor simple.

According to Sforza's article, the southern California region's 191 cities in six counties have plans that call for 1.3 million new houses by 2030 in response to state requirements that they quit 'dragging their NIMBY feet and build more, more, more.' However, California builders filed permits for only 119,000 new units in the 12 months that ended in May, producing no change over the preceding four years. Sforza quotes Jonathan Lansner as concluding "so for all the state bureaucracy's homebuilding bluster, zippo has changed!"

A prior post, People in Cars (25 November 2023) quotes the LA Times as writing "It's bad housing policy to prioritize cars over people." Requiring parking that is not desired by the average tenant seeking the type of housing in question makes no sense. It only increases, as the Times says, the cost of said housing. But this is a simple matter to assess. Survey the occupancy of parking in such developments and, based on the results, allow local government to update parking policies. Local government, not state. The LA Times also claimed that LA County "has dedicated more space to the storage of cars than it has lane miles of streets and roads." The County does not dedicate space, but business and residents demand space. And how much space is dedicated to bedrooms? What is clearly needed is an integrated planning process linking transportation and land use in a more comprehensive manner. Such a process must reflect not only direct environmental impacts but also the consumption of increasingly scarce resources such as water.

Note: It's not just housing directly. There has been a steady decline in population growth as well as California public school enrollment since 2014-15, a trend that only accelerated during the pandemic. Continued declines are projected for the foreseeable future.

My Biased Perspective 1: Art
Enjoying or understanding art is challenging for many. Most if not all art is conceptualized as a story by an artist, who tries to relate some perspective via their selected media. For me, as an art beholder, it is mostly an escape. I don't need to look deep, I skip over what doesn't immediately draw me in, and I don't really think about what the artist's story really is. I rarely think about how I would interpret a particular work. The authors of many academic research papers also tell a story, but one with broad and direct implications, and also more formal standards to meet. Is it too an escape? Perhaps for the authors, however, it is said that few people other than editors and other researchers read the average academic paper. Frameless heads on nameless walls.

My Biased Perspective 2: Technology
I've never lived without a car. I've driven up and down the east coast four times, cross country four times, and throughout the northeast and the far west many times. But I don't drive very much anymore. I've spent most of my life without a cell phone. Although I've become increasing immersed in a digital world over the past 50 years, I've been immersed in a world of books and music for even longer. It is much more satisfying to fill in the scenes when reading books or listening to music than to observe and move on from a video. It's the same for traveling. I've played games most of my life. Unlike these other activities, I draw satisfaction from those in the room with me, not their avatars. All of this has been a learning experience. Entertaining, yes, but a learning experience nonetheless.

My Biased Perspective 3: Language
I've always been fascinated by language. It's why I read a lot but, oddly, not why I write a lot. Reading is most often learning, about the topic and about language in general, while writing for me is often just pontificating and sometimes just ranting rather than exercising a love of language. I do cringe when I see poor grammar (my blog is often full of typos, a situation I (try to) correct every couple of months) as I do when I see weak arguments (or no argument at all) for some position. And I do love to learn about elements of grammar, usage, and words. For example, I've long been one who insists on a comma following the penultimate item in a list and was elated to see that Oxford agrees with me. I found a blog that argued that utopia and dystopia are essentially the same concepts (a Jekyll and Hyde thing). The blogger, thebettereditor, can be a pompous and annoyingly correct grammarian who writes in a haughty, supercilious voice, and one who does not appear to entertain new usages for words with a increasing frequency of misuse. On the other hand, while thebettereditor often appears at least a little peeved, in this blog so do I. I mean, it's a primary purpose for my blog. Is that the point: getting people annoyed enough to pay attention but not too annoyed to turn away? By the way, I found that site in a search for the word 'tranche.' I hoped to find that the word was being used incorrectly but apparently, it's an infrequent word used most often correctly. "Inconceivable," said Vizzini, repeatedly, when Inigo replies:

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

There's only one pressing reason why automobile culture must change: the environmental impacts of burning fossil fuels are leading to climate change that may be beyond our control. Throwing the automobile baby out with the fossil fuel bath water, however, makes little sense with the growing adoption of alternative energy and electric vehicles. There are forces that have been blinded to the advantages brought by effective transportation systems, forces which instead forward views simplistically reflecting 'America's love affair with the automobile' and only its negative impacts. Such views often reflect the false binary representation of 'dense cities good, sparse suburbs bad' or 'public transit good, private cars bad.' It also may reflect a wishful thinking that, without cars, we'd have a non-motorized travel utopia. Currently, there are no fees that are assessed on biking and walking but without cars there may have to be to crrate and maintain such a system.

Last year the LA Times (17 July 2022) doubled down on prior editorials with "It's bad housing policy to prioritize cars over people." Until the Autonomous Apocalypse is upon us, all movements are by people, whether they are walking or using some form of non-motorized or motorized transportation. The majority of people choose the mode of travel that provides the greatest personal benefit; the majority of the rest would do the same given sufficient resources to do so. This does not justify continuing these consumer choices which provide benefits to the individual while accumulating significant costs on everyone (and on our planet. But aren't people in cars, well, people?

The LA Times editorial quickly proposed that it is parking, rather than the automobile itself, that is the elephant in the room. They're half right: it's not the car -- it's the burning of fossil fuels. But it makes one wonder whether anti-parking nee anti-car forces would be happy with a network full of autonomous vehicles driving endlessly but never parking?

Only days later the LA Times (19 July 2022) continued this war on cars, escalating from a war on parking to a war on gas stations. It's hard to picture the Editorial Board sitting around a table saying, well, if we can't stop them from driving then we can stop them from parking, and if that doesn't work, then maybe we can stop them from buying gas. Just to be clear, fossil fuels are the problem but there are a range of potential solutions. But starting by reducing parking or reducing gas stations is just going to result in drivers circling the block looking for a place to park, refuel, or write a letter to the editor. To be clear, the LA Times does consider the pluses and minuses of such a myopic view but, one does have to wonder, why even start with a headline suggesting the banning of new gas stations?

Over the past year, the LA Times has continued with their support of more housing and fewer cars. It's not the general opinion that's problematic. The devil is in the details.

Now that I-10 has re-opened, the questions seem to have turned from "How long will this traffic nightmare last?" to "How did they fix it so fast?" Freeway repairs are most often rapid, thus drawing concerns that fixing transit, bike, and pedestrian facilities never move so rapidly. What's lost in these disruptions is the complexity of our transportation systems.

Major facilities such as I-10 have network-wide implications. Hundreds of thousands of vehicles will not just disappear during disruptions but will appear elsewhere in the network, often with significant local impacts. Unlike freeways, other network problems do not get the same level of attention. These problems, including network elements for transit, bikes, and pedestrians, have much smaller impacts. While these components have a much smaller repair cost, they also have fewer constituents to complain when problems are not quickly addressed. In part, this is a political problem, but some transportation problems are fundamentally different regarding potential resolution. Consider the rail corridor in south Orange County and US 1 in Big Sur (see the LA Times OpEd for 20 November 2023).

In each of these case, one involving rail transit and one involving a scenic highway, the problem is due to engineering issues and not to budget or political will. Beach sand depletion morphing into cliff erosion is eating away at the coast in south Orange County. The problem, exacerbated by drought, is in large measure due to residential development and its attendant infrastructure which reduces the natural flow of sand from the land and local streams to the sea. This problem is amplified by insufficient space to buffer the waves and strengthen the cliff (let alone double track the right-of-way to add capacity that is needed for both passenger and freight demand). In Big Sur, continuing landslides on the steep slopes that line the US 1 corridor simply has no clear short-run solutions. These problems are perhaps most important in that they are not singular. These problems must be addressed with the long-run in mind. Routine maintenance is very important but it might be time for a re-thinking of how we plan and operate the entire transportation system.

I found something I wrote about nine years ago that began "commuting into LA and then having to pay more for parking is like paying to go to UCLA and then finding out that you also have to pay for the chair in your class." Maybe we had it wrong from the beginning. Like Kodak who gave away cameras to profit from selling film (yes, their lack of foresight was eventually clear but the profits did flow for decades), perhaps we should not tax gas and only charge for parking. After all, the only reason we drive is so that we can park at the destination.

Maybe people should just pay for the space and time they consume. Larger people and people who walk slow would pay more because they consume more space-time. A vehicle takes up more space but less time than a pedestrian does. The price would be some weighted function of space and time. Maybe that vehicle could be discouraged from driving on a congested freeway. And maybe that pedestrian could be discouraged from walking on a congested sidewalk or crossing an intersection (they pre-pay a fee per second of green time they consume). As Parkes and Thrift (1975) wrote in a somewhat different context, maybe it is all about Timing Space and Spacing Time? Yes, those are their real but highly appropriate names.

1. Disparate Views [L]
Disparate essentially means different in kind, so as not to allow comparison. Disparate ideas cannot be readily compared on a level playing field because they are incongruous. I was surprised to find a recent paper focused on "combining disparate surveys" as part of a somewhat broader study. The concept of combining data from similar surveys that asked similar but not exactly the same questions is both interesting and useful. The word disparate, however, is used incorrectly. Clearly, the survey questions were combined so the relevant responses were truly not disparate. The problem is that similar questions in the original surveys were not well expressed or consistent to enable a simply blending of multiple survey results. As they say, an ounce of design prevention is worth a published pound of cure.

"I learned to recognise the thorough and primitive duality of man; I saw that, of the two natures that contended in the field of my consciousness, even if I could rightly be said to be either, it was only because I was radically both."

Over coffee with an old friend who has been engaged in various international transportation endeavors for forty years, the discussion turned to electric and autonomous vehicles and how their costs could be covered.

An installment in my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation.

There is a systematic process for describing trips, a process for which the origin lies in the very distant past. Trips and activities are typically defined on multiple dimensions. Spatial and temporal characteristics are fundamental, but so are purposes, modes, and paths. These characteristics are the what, who, why, where, and when, as well as two dimensions of the how of travel behavior. Aristotle's Nicomachean Ethics is the original source of the elements of circumstance or Septem Circumstantiae but they are often attributed to Hermagoras of Temnos who defined seven interrogatives for any issue:

"Quid, quis, cur, ubi, quando, quem ad modum, quibus adminiculis." Aristotle via Hermagoras

1. What? [quid] The Trip
2. Who? [quis] The Traveler(s)
3. Why? [cur] Trip Purpose: Why is the trip being made (the activity)?
4. Where? [ubi] Trip Destination: Where in space are trips and activities performed?
5. When? [quando] Time-of-Day: When is the trip being made?
6. How? [quibis adminiculus] Trip Mode: By what means is the trip being made?
7. Which? [quem ad modem] Trip Path: The sequence of network sections that used to travel from the trip origin to the trip destination.

The order in which the interrogatives are listed corresponds to the standard implementation of trip-based models in travel forecasting, although variations have been used. It is not implied that travel decisions are made by the traveler in this order. They may be considered simultaneously or even not considered but executed out of habit. The presence of this order in conventional trip-based travel forecasting gives rise to an aggregate set of flows and does not reflect any behavioral decision-making process on the part of the traveler. In fact, each direction could be represented in an individual or an aggregate manner. For example, the "when" interrogative could reflect an individual's trip departure time or it could reflect the aggregate distribution of departure times (the conventional "time-of-day").

Traveling without Moving? Really [vere]? This once may have seemed like "virtual insanity" but with the IT revolution and the rise of telecommuting and teleservices, it's now important to measure trips not made as well as those that are. How would you categorize these activities by the trip-based system proposed? This is one of the advantages of an activity-based representation.

Trip-based or Activity-based, that is the question. From a data collection viewpoint, it comes down to survey respondent recall. It's been hypothesized that travel diary survey respondents are more likely to recall the activities they performed rather than the trips that they made. This is reflected in the concept of activity-based models. In an activity-based survey, the trip to access the activity, and each of that trip's attributes, become characteristics of the activity being accessed. This is in parallel to the activity type becoming an attribute of each trip in a trip-based travel diary. Typically, the same data is being collected but the recall can be improved. Would this proposed trip-classification be changed? Not necessarily since the activity type is the same as trip purpose. However, there are additional attributes of an activity that should be categorized. This will be addressed in a subsequent post on Defining... Complex Travel Behavior where travel behavior from trips to activity patterns is considered.

Using hedge words (or weasel words) and phrases "can make you sound weak and indecisive," leadership expert Dan Rockwell writes. Such phrases can also minimize your ideas and make you appear uncertain. Hedging words such as maybe, perhaps, probably or possibly, might, and almost. "Hedging words make you sound weak," he adds.

Years ago I saw some political flyers attacking a local politician for using what they called "weasel words" that effectively allowed a politician to back out of a statement (for example, "we'll probably expand transit service"). I'll add that the flyer itself also contained a couple of weasel words. So weasel words may have the intention of hedging one's bets but this does not mean that all hedging words are inappropriate.

It's all in the intent and the degree of certainty in your sentence. Many if not most comments are subjective, bound by uncertainty. Stating that there is some uncertainty may weaken the declaration, but appropriately so. "I think St Louis might be the capital of Missouri." Weak declaration, perhaps, but it indicates that you aren't sure. Would "St Louis is the capital of Missouri" be better? It would be strong, but wrong. There's a level of respect associated with hedging one's words, especially if the tenor is at odds with others engaged in a conversation.

Rockwell then writes: "People know words like 'perhaps' or 'maybe' mean no." No, you're wrong, you pompous ass. While I might have thought that, I believe that it is unlikely that I would ever say that (even excising the pompous ass part). Rockwell ultimately does admit a hedge (emphasis mine):

"I suppose it's foolish to completely eliminate these words. They might be useful once in a while."

In SmartCitiesDive Adina Solomon (13 November 2023) considers "Billionaire-planned smart cities in the US: What's the latest?. Here's a summary:

• Apparently, Silicon Valley tech billionaires have bought 55,000 acres around Solano County for $800 million, planning to build a metropolis called California Forever (see: LA Times (1 September 2023))
• Elon Musk's Boring Company has started a utopian company town, Snailbrook, outside of Austin, Texas.
• Six years ago, Bill Gates was planning to build a smart city in Arizona, buying 24,000 acres of desert land.
• The Saudis are building "The Line," a megastructure that is 105 miles long, 500 meters tall, and 200 meters wide, all to run on renewable energy (see: The Garden of Allah (29 October 2022)).
• In 2021 billionaire Marc Lore announced plans for Telosa as a futuristic and sustainable desert metropolis (see: Ponder Telosa (19 September 2021)).
• California City is that State's third largest city (in land area) but it's, as Timothy Karoff wrote (13 November 2023), "a mostly empty, forgotten dream." Back in 2010, Mike Anton (14 August 2010) referred to it as "a desert city that didn't fan out."

An installment in my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation.

The term telecommuting implies two complementary but not mutually exclusive aspects. First, it involves the utilization of telecommunication devices at home, implying a digital connection to an office or use of other remote resources. This also would imply a reduction of travel between home and an employer-designated work location (i.e., commuting). Many jobs now routinely employ telecommunication devices, regardless of the work place location. It is thus the second aspect that has become important: the replacement of travel to a work location. Telecommuting, a portmanteau of telecommunications and commuting, becomes a substitute for physical commuting. The following categorization is proposed and applies to all workers, whether they are working full- or part-time (see below for comments on those working multiple jobs). We define a category of captive workers and five categories of choice workers (here, WfH means Work from Home).

• Type 1. Captive WfH:
  A worker who has no employer-designated place of work, including self-employed workers. Without an employer-designated place of work, no commuting is possible, thus no policy to reduce commuting would be directed toward this group. It is likely that a large portion of this category were already Working from Home prior to the pandemic.
  
  There are several categories of choice-based workers, meaning workers with an employer-designated place of work, versus Type 1 Captive Wfh workers (having no employer-designated place of work), listed in terms of decreasing amount of time spent working at home.


• Type 2. Exclusive WfH:
  Workers who have a choice to commute to an employer-designated place of work but choose to work exclusively from home are deemed exclusive WfH workers. In the same manner that workers with an employer-designated place of work many have some work-related activity which is conducted at home, Type 2 workers may have occasional work activities at the designated work place and thus occasional commutes.


• Type 3. Hybrid WfH:
  A worker who has an employer-designated place of work and commutes to this location on a regular basis, but also has days when they work exclusively from home, is considered a Hybrid WfH worker. There is a growing consensus that most WfH workers will fall into this category as the pandemic continues to ebb. This includes workers who on a given day commute to a designated workplace but also do formal work activity at home on the same day. This sort of Hybrid WfH does not eliminate a commute trip but could alter that trip's timing (such as to a non-peak period).


• Type 4. Temporary WfH:
  A worker who typically commutes but remains home on any given day due to an illness, an unexpected childcare responsibility, or other occasional activities, and completes work-related activities while at home, is considered a Temporary WfH worker. Such a worker would not be a target of any policy for Working from Home or have any measurable performance impact of such a policy.


• Type 5. Incidental WfH:
  Many workers with an employer-designated place of work to which they typically commute occasionally have work-related activities that they conduct in their homes, including checking email and messages, work-related phone calls, and brief teleconferences. If these work-related activities conducted at home consume very little time (say, less than one hour total per day), then these work activities should not be considered as changing the Type of Work from Home since there is no real impact on the transportation system [see: Homing from Work (23 October 2023)].


• Type 6. Exclusive Commuters:
  Any worker who based on occupation or employer constraints has no option to work from home for any reason, including work activity defined in Type 4 and 5, are considered exclusive commuters. This includes workers engaged in trades and services that require a physical presence "on the job."
  
  A final category of worker includes those who have more than one job.


• Type 7. Workers with Multiple Jobs:
  What about workers with more than one job? If both jobs have the same restrictions relative to Working from Home, then the proposed classification still can be used. If a worker has one job that provides the opportunity to Work from Home and another job that does not, then that worker could be classified in two WfH categories. A person who works as a construction laborer during the week (likely Type 6) but is self-employed at home on the weekend (Type 1) could be classified as both Type 1 and Type 6. Alternately, the worker could be classified by the primary job, perhaps based on number of hours worked (in this case, construction or Type 6). The default would be to categorize these workers as Type 7.

* An update and alternative perspective on Defining... Telecommuting (31 March 2023).

"I believe with all my heart that the kind of party ours must be is one that rejects as unfit and
unwholesome all who are purveyors of hatred and intolerance, who are prone to the use of
violence, who malign the character of fellow Americans and who baselessly charge decent
Americans with treasonable acts or intentions."

A mid-monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"Beautifying Traffic via Enhancing Time-Space Traffic Diagrams"

"Digital Twin in the Built Environment to Support Multifunctional Modeling for Broader Impacts"

Update: The most recent mailer from our friends at the WSPA says that California's gas, which is more expensive to make (about 11 cents per gallon), will soon be even more expensive (an additional 36 cents per gallon), precisely why they don't say. They do say it's the cost of low carbon fuel, but they emphasize that it amounts to a 327 percent increase (in the fee, not per gallon, although they do not make that clear.

The City of Irvine has extremely high housing costs, approaching $1 million in median price. While critics often claim that Irvine is a suburban sprawl of single family homes, it is anything but. A population density of about 4,300 residents per square mile is an under-estimate since over 40 percent of the city is permanent open space (as in undeveloped open space). The city features a broad range of single and multiple family homes, high rise apartments, college dormitories, and even mobile home parks. The draw, despite the high price, or perhaps because of the high price, is a master planned community strictly zoned, but zoned for a wide variety of housing types. There are usually strict CCRs to maintain what is a very significant investment in housing. As a young city about 50 years old, Irvine has seen very little change in land use. Its master planned and phased development densities would limit, if regulations even allowed, any redevelopment for other densities or housing unit types.

In "Inclusive zoning for the American Dream" in the LA Times (20 May 2021), Erin B Logan wrote that a think tank in New York said that exclusionary zoning had created the housing crisis and did not reflect a free market. Is housing now to be market controlled or still more regulated? Exclusionary zoning requires minimum lot sizes and ban all but single family homes. Proposals to eliminate single family zoning claim to deliver affordable housing to give more Americans "the ability to generate wealth and pass it down to generations." But this, of course, is precisely the reason local governments created zoning laws in the first place. Government zoning regulations protect the housing investment in the same manner that the FDIC insures bank deposits.

Zoning, while a regulation, is part of the market structure. As with any successful market, it has to work both ways: it has to encourage investment in a house (to accumulate wealth) and to do so it needs to protect the investment. A risky stock? Only for the most wealthy. An exotic car or piece of art? Ditto. Would a middle income worker put their money into an uninsured bank account? No. Nor would they be willing to buy a home in a risky neighborhood. This is not race-based, but it is wealth-based. Housing is the biggest investment a middle class person will make in their lifetime, and zoning is insurance.

We do need housing that is affordable but as they say in real estate, it's "location, location, location." The farther away from activity, the cheaper the housing and the longer the commute. It's the basic process of growth in a regulated market. This doesn't mean that we shouldn't change the dirty real estate bath water, but don't throw the single family baby out with it.

Note: An LA Times OpEd (13 October 2023) reports that in the preceding week, Governor Newsom signed 56 housing laws passed by the State Legislature and designed to streamline housing construction and protect tenants. That's 56. The free market is a harsh mistress.

Jeremy Cote defines 'absorbers and explorers' (25 February 2021). Cote tied the development of scientists to resources (including funding) that are limited but bright lights that draw scientists to the promise of adventure. Many who make advances, Cote suggests, are then drawn to new promising adventures. He identifies these researchers who "leave behind ... a relic of their progress ... often rough, and left to others to make sense of" as 'explorers' and argues that we need a new class of 'absorbers.' Cote defines an 'absorber' as:

"An absorber is someone who isn't satisfied with the state of our scientific knowledge .. [who imagines] how much more we could make if we made a more directed effort as a collective."

We're all familiar with Literature Reviews as a standard way of introducing the state-of-the-art in a field and thus providing a base from which to launch new research. I find it all too common, perhaps due to the sometimes seemingly random flow of research interest and support from funding agencies, at least in the transportation field, that research threads don't extend very deeply before the stream of papers reflects different endeavors. Transportation strongly reflects practical applications and this research pattern reflects the political and practical pressures to improve the transportation system to address immediate problems. This does not however mean that underlying, deeply rooted ideas cannot be pursued, so why aren't they? I think it's because there are not many truly deep thinkers in our field. Further, those who best play the game get the most funding, draw the most students, publish the most papers, and thus perpetuate a system that works, at least on the surface level. Are any of the practical transportation problem really being resolved? Does such a shotgun approach to research work at all? Perhaps we need some absorbers? I think we do, but how can this be encouraged?

What if everyone needed to pick a topic for which they feel comfortable in their self-assessment of expertise but more importantly a topic that has both practical implications and a level of passion on their part to dig deeply or, more precisely, to dig both broadly and deeply? I do not mean a standard literature review (I hear my colleagues saying "Isn't that what a literature review is?"). And I do not mean simply an assessment of breadth reflecting effectiveness at addressing some practical problem. What I do mean is digging broadly and also digging deeply, not on a single deep path, but on multiple paths, each of which could lead to continued deep research in a reasonably broad area.

This approach may not have immediate pay-offs. It may not draw funding, it may not draw students. It may not fall under typical publication paths. Stephen Jay Gould wrote about scientists in his field, including those thinking and writing on truly deep issues, as having a relatively basic research program (Gould's was studying beetles). This might be an approach that can work in transportation. Researchers would continually summarize the state-of-the-art, multiple perspectives, and gaps needed to be addressed on a topic sufficiently well-defined so that summaries are concise. We should all have an inordinate fondness for beetles.

For a related post, see Deep Thinking and Thin-slicing (13 January 2023).

An IPSOS global survey reports that "85% of people worry about online disinformation." The real question is "what portion of online information is not true? Social media was the main source of news in most countries surveyed, despite trust in the associated information being significantly lower than for conventional media. We have firsthand experience with 'leaders' who simply 'make stuff up' and it seems clear that, whether people know these 'leaders' are intentionally misleading or not, they simply don't care.

My apologies for the rant. A quote from an esteemed colleague...

"I am honored and privileged to begin my term ... particularly so at a time when our transportation profession is delicately poised at the cusp of a literal technological revolution that will affect literally every aspect of our travel."

My comments concern the language of hype and not the general concept of ideas that are new and promising but very unlikely 'revolutionary,' literally or otherwise. I also quibble with leader-speak expressions such as "I'm excited' or 'honored and privileged' (more sententious than redundant). While I like the expression 'delicately poised' more often than not the thing in question is deliberately posed. No specific revolutions were identified and the letter really focused on how to make the organization a better organization, an exemplary goal. I'm just not sure how this goal relates to 'technological revolution' or 'every aspect of our travel.'

This week the average price of a gallon of gas in Texas was $2.91 versus $5.18 in California. A recent mailer from the Western States Petroleum Association breaks down state gasoline taxes in California and concludes that total government taxes are nine times more than what oil companies make in net profits. While that fact may be true it totally ignores that most of these taxes are essentially user fees. The federal 18 cent tax per gallon and the majority of the California fuel taxes are used to build, operate, and maintain highway and transit infrastructure and services, while the 14 cents per gallon for the oil companies is pure profit. The mailer appears to be in response to recent California legislation that caps the profits of oil companies. Also note that only half the difference in price per gallon in California versus Texas is due to these user fees.

I've always been a bit troubled by hearing people described as having multiple proficiencies. It's virtually always a creative person, often a person in the so-called arts, in part because creativity itself requires a broad set of knowledge, skills, and perspectives, together forming a different way to view the world. For an example, see A Restlessness to Wander Innerspace (7 March 2023). I'm a bit more troubled however by the explanation often provided by perhaps equally creative people who critique the work of such polymathic individuals.

A review of an art exhibit entitled Groundswell: Women of Land Art at the Nasher Sculpture Center in Dallas (The Week 1155) discussed an "anti-gallery movement" deemed "land art." I think of the real world as sculpted by nature as true art but that does not limit an artist's vision of that world, but it can limit ones understanding of that vision. My first experience with a related "installation" of what I would call land art although in was installed within the Laguna Art Museum was essentially a large room with a load of beach sand in a corner. With the room being perched above the ocean in Laguna I couldn't help but think that a large window looking down on the beach would have been much more impressive. I don't really know what the artist had in mind, but it was likely an attempt to elicit emotional reactions to their work. My reaction was just that: I preferred viewing and contemplating nature's sand just outside.

I had a similar reaction to Nancy Holt's Sun Tunnels, an outdoor installation in the Utah desert. A caption on the accompanying photo said "a modern Stonehenge," which at least in part it was, albeit in very small part, in my mind's eye. It's odd while I was not impressed with the land art installation, I was impressed by the photograph of it. One of the reviewers, Deborah Solomon, wrote that all of the artists showcased were "morally precocious," to which I think many readers would respond "huh?" The review, or meta art, also included that the land art artists were:

"ahead of their time in understanding that caring for our home is not a matter of ordering
blinds or a new fridge but of acknowledging the limited resources of the planet earth."

Big Box retail has been around for a long time but what about Big Box houses? This should not be surprising since housing prices are driven high by increasingly scarce residntial land. This results a demand for maximizing floorspace on small lots. In the LA Times, Jack Fleming (1 November 2023) writes about these Big Box Houses:

"But although the box houses' bulk draws attention, its design is basic. They're like an iPhone:
simple and smooth. Clean lines, glass walls, simple shades of white or black. Critics see them
as soulless and inert."

Update 1: I knew there would be letters on this and today's LA Times Letters provided just what I expected. Of course not everyone (or even most) will like these 'box homes' but it's also true that some will and that some are looking only for return on an investment. But that return can only occur if there's a demand and, while styles change (appliances, open concepts, giant bathrooms), the general trend in dense housing areas has always been toward more internal space on ever smaller lots. Such developments can be controlled by local land use and zoning laws, at least until California's progressive state legislature takes these away.

I had a dream. It was about what I desired, something I can't have. From Sting's Shape Of My Heart:

He deals the cards as a meditation
And those he plays never suspect
He doesn't play for the money he wins
He don't play for respect

He deals the cards to find the answer
The sacred geometry of chance
The hidden law of a probable outcome
The numbers lead a dance

I know that the spades are the swords of a soldier
I know that the clubs are weapons of war
I know that diamonds mean money for this art
But that's not the shape of my heart

There's a highway to hell but a stairway to heaven because it's easier to follow others than to set you own path.

The average car moves about five percent of the time. What proportion of time is the average toilet utilized? Think about any item you own, lease, or borrow that uses resources but also provides utility. It's the item's potential means (i.e., accessibility) to exercise these utilities that most people consider important, not the item's actual utilization ends (i.e., mobility). Yet, increasingly, those opposed to automobiles are using parking as a cudgel to remove automotive traffic. Some related blog posts include:

• P Is for Parking (22 July 2023)
  "An analysis of 'excess' parking in U.S. cities suggests to a trained eye that these lots are not paving over any erstwhile paradises."
• A Day in the Parking Lot with George (21 April 2023)
  "Someone wrote that '30% of urban traffic is actively seeking a parking space.' If you drop the word 'actively' then you can change that to 100 percent. Parking is not some frivolous activity that drivers do at the end of a trip. It's sort of the whole purpose of the driving."
• Parking (18 February 2023)
  "Allan Jacobs wrote that 'No great city has ever been known for its abundant supply of parking.' I'll add that no city, great or not, has ever been known for its abundant supply of televisions, closets, home appliances, or any consumer product."
• Diagonally Parked in a Parallel Universe (8 January 2023)
  "Allowing driving but not parking is like providing buses that pick you up but don't let you off."
• Curb Your Enthusiasm (16 April 2020)
  "My design standard is that all elements of cost should be reflected at the origin of the trip, not at the destination
• Leopard-skin Pill-box Hat (4 January 2019)
  "If the garage is converted to a second housing unit, the added residents can only increase the number of cars that need to be parked on or near the property."

It's "Spring forward, fall back" but why not "Spring back, fall forward?" The LA Times' Essential California eNews (3 November 2023) notes that:

"a Times article published 28 September 1930 with the headline 'Daylight saving's drawbacks
far outweigh its benefits.' Roughly a century later, we're still giving ourselves jet lag without
flying anywhere. Why do we still do this?"

It is increasingly clear that larger vehicles, especially larger Electric Vehicles (EVs) "pose greater risks both to the environment and traffic safety" writes Peter Bohr in OC Westways (Winter 2023). Large SUVs and pick-up trucks comprise about three out of four vehicles sales nationwide and, in California, EVs are now over 20 percent of vehicle sales. While EVs pollute less than conventional vehicles burning fossil fuels, they need to overcome a larger initial carbon footprint due to battery production. The mass of these larger vehicles, while better protecting occupants, pose greater risk to other road users. Bohr suggests that the greater mass may also limit their braking ability.

There are two vehicle trends -- increased average vehicle mass and an increasing number of electric vehicles, and they appear to be linked. Now is the time to consider whether, as Bohr asks, "Is bigger always better?" A reduction in mass may be achieved by more efficient batteries, and smaller batteries may be feasible when EV charging stations become more common and more efficient.

Update: Just saw a graphic of the best-selling vehicles in 2022. In 35 states it's pick-up trucks and in 15 states small or crossover SUVs, leaving one state, Florida, with a sedan as the best-selling vehicle.

... public transit. A recent Eno Webinar announcement (30 October 2023) states that (my emphasis):

"Transit agencies across the U.S. are grappling with daunting operating budget shortfalls caused by the depletion of COVID-19 federal relief funds, rising operating costs, and reduced fare revenues."

In StreetsBlog USA, Kea Wilson reports that:

"sustainable transportation advocates across the country are taking action to physically remake streets for safety when city leaders fail to act quickly."

On the other hand, there have been:

"a growing range of tactical urbanism strategies [including] stopping traffic to demand redesigns of dangerous roads, and even staging elaborate 'street theater' protests of transit funding shortfalls."

What's next? Should those who want a new freeway block bus stops or park cars on rail tracks? It seems that most people support public transit (even if it's so others but not themselves will use it) but many bicyclists (more so than regular transit users or pedestrians) would like motor vehicle traffic to simply disappear.

Let's be clear that undertaking directly beneficial strategies like adding bus benches or painting crosswalks would appear quite different to most observers than taking over a intersection and demanding billions of dollars for public transit. In their defense, these groups emphasized that this confrontational style of advocacy isn't a replacement for traditional, legal activism.

But one still needs to carefully consider the full range of factors affecting, and implications resulting from, such actions. In April 2023 Arnold Schwarzenegger was filmed filling a neighborhood pothole and was later rebuked when it was determined that it was not actually a pothole. I would also suggest that the expression "sustainable transportation advocates" should be "sustainable transportation activists" since I fall in the first category, as do many transportation professionals, but none of us likely consider ourselves activists, and certainly not vigilante activists.

Note: An online survey in SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (31 October 2023) suggested that about 25 percent of respondents encouraged public street activism but 44 percent told them to stop. The survey's options were more reaction to the action rather than advice to those considering the action.

"November at its best -- with a sort of delightful menace in the air." Anne Bosworth Greene

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"California is building the first solar-powered high-speed rail system in the world, with solar panels
at select locations along the route supplying enough electricity to power the initial phase of the
high-speed rail system."

There's a time for every purpose under heaven. And this is not the time to cajole Christians regarding their political beliefs; now is the time to say "wake up, open your eyes, and use the brain God gave you." How can any real Christian support the one person who is the least Christian on any dimension of being like Jesus? Me/Now is the personification of wickedness: absolutely self-serving, volatile, destructive, and embracing the seven deadly sins and none of the virtues. Are these further steps leading to Yeats' Second Coming?

"And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"

In writing my posts Eunoia (1 September 2023) and Connections? (4 September 2023), I came across the term Cynefin (pronounced (kuh-NEV-in), although not for the first time. It's a Welsh word for 'habitat' and was applied by Dave Snowden of IBM in 1999 to describe a conceptual framework used to make sense of information and to aid in decision-making. Four original decision-making domains were based on system elements that were either known, knowable, complex, or chaotic. You may remember Donald Rumsfeld's quote regarding 'known knowns,' 'known unknowns,' 'unknown unknowns,' and 'cause and effect unclear.' Now Cynefin is often defined by five decision-making domains: clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, and (center of) confusion (the 5Cs?) with that fifth (often in the middle) domain reflecting an absence of clarity about which of the other domains may apply.

It provides a useful framework by which to categorize knowledge (as well as to aid in decision-making) and thus fits my concern regarding the imprecision that typifies many terms in our field of transportation (see posts in my "Defining" blog series beginning with Driving without a Road Map (20 February 2023). Unfortunately it doesn't address a common problem that context is often critical when defining many transport terms. A related quote of interest was found on Liz Keogh's blog:

"Categorize the obvious, analyze the complicated, probe the complex, and act in chaos."

Last year, I posted Questions in Need of Deeper Thinking which itself was based on a presentation in November 2019. Revisiting that pre-pandemic world provided some insight on what were then extemporaneous ideas and opinions. This is an update.

Transportation Technologies: Each of the 3 Revolutions -- electric vehicles (EV), autonomous vehicles (AV), and shared mobility -- has problems. EV technology is there and the market is growing (in California, 25 percent of new vehicle sales in 2022 were EVs) but slowly elsewhere. The decision by major auto manufacturers to adopt Tesla's charging technology could fuel sales (although the ongoing UAW strike could diminish this). AV technology is still wanting and thus there is no current market. The area of shared mobility remains but there is much uncertainty regarding the willingness to change both travel behavior and vehicle ownership patterns or simply share when it's convenient. Drones are scary and there will be continued pressure to use drone technology in a variety of applications, almost all of which will violate some aspect of your privacy. Flying taxis might enjoy the high end of the limo market. The worst case scenario will be HOT "lanes" for flying taxis. God help us.

Transportation and Land Use: Which one of these is the one that you can't build your way out of? The State of California continues to usurp zoning and land use laws and policy from local agencies, but many progressive leaders are beginning to see the writing on the wall. Their 56 (!) recent laws are not having much of an impact. A recent law may have an impact in reducing the review requirements for in-full development. I'll note that the UCI Senior Design Capstone sequence has featured the in-fill development process in place of empty land development for the past several years. With the decline of malls and other shopping areas, many developers are now looking at building residential and mixed-use development in their place. As long as larger issues of traffic and it's impacts are well-considered, this could be a step in the right direction.

Induced Demand: If induced demand exists, it's source can be readily associated with destination, mode, time-of-day, and route. This is diverted traffic. Travel in excess of this either reflects growth (demographic or income changes) or suppressed demand being relieved. Travel budgets and trip generation rates are remarkably stable -- people just don't travel more since there are new lanes on which to drive. Now NCHRP has called for proposals to (1) define induced demand; (2) gather and evaluate data needed to develop the assessment framework; (3) pilot, validate, and test the assessment framework; and (4) communicate findings from the framework to build consensus. It will be a couple of years before we "know."

Demographic Trends: This is the first of three areas where some deep thought is needed. Population trends in California are stable, declining continuously over the past decade and having negative growth for the first time in 2020. Around the country, growth in urban areas is actually growth in suburbs. We need to significantly reconsider how we define problems, plans, policies.

Public Transit: After a century of near consistent decline, public transit was decimated by the pandemic. While a real need for public transit in dense areas remains, it is time to re-thinks the technologies utilized and the patterns of transit use, including moving away from the peak hour focus. We will never "return to the old normal." A deep rethinking is needed.

Transportation Funding: The problem was that the old gas tax system was not indexed to inflation. The problem is that fossil fuels are on their way out. Tracking vehicles is not feasible and ignores those who don't drive but benefit from highway delivery of virtually everything they consume each day. The private sector and technology are not the good guys here. A deep rethinking is in order. No, deeper...

Smart Cities: There aren't any and, besides, the problem is all the other cities. Urban networks have an inordinate permanence so care must be exercise when making decisions involving transport infrastructure. Smart talk is cheap; smart solutions, if they exist, are prohibitively expensive. Don't hold your breath.

Not a lot of innovation or progress in the past year. Look for another update next year.

Time's 200 Best Inventions of 2023 included these in the Transportation category. There were many interesting items in other categories of Time's 200 Best list but, IMHO, most were simply new ways to get you to spend (of course, that's why Time does this).

• An exotic car engineered, 3D-printed, and assembled by a generative AI, and a $2 million price.
• Zoox Autonomous Shuttle Service, not innovative per se but in regular use by Zoox employees, soon to be expanded to the public in Las Vegas and San Francisco (not exactly typical cities).
• Acer Ebii, a "supersmart E-bike" actually has some innovations. Check it out.
• A one-person aerial drone -- while it may be functional, where will it ever be regularly used?
• Laura Maersk, a container ship powered by low-carbon green methanol. Maybe container ships should be banned, or at least dirty bunker fuels, but these ships are being built.
• Callboats CAT 10L, an autonomous ferry, because the only place worse to have a driverless vehicle than a busy freeway or a crowded downtown is out in the water miles from land.
• Lockheed Martin and NASA X-59, a supersonic jet with a design to significantly reduced noise (no sonic booms) apparently due to its woodpecker-like nose cone (yes, that annoying noise-maker, and I don't mean Woody Woodpecker's laugh).

Although the expression Somebody Else's Problem (SEP) was first used a few years earlier, an SEP field was created by Douglas Adams in Life, the Universe, and Everything to describe "people's natural predisposition not to see anything they don't want to, weren't expecting, or can't explain." It is infinitely improbable that somehow Adams' Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy universe would not relate to issues discussed in this blog, including Disinhibited and Disinhibited Part 2. These are somewhat different perspectives in that SEP reflects a blind ignorance while disinhibition is a relaxing of social mores that results in people behaving in manners that were not conventionally accepted. Both however reflect a world of increasing complexity where rational explanations are no longer direct if even possible, leading to blind ignorance or blind allegiance.

In Sapiens Yuval Noah Harari wrote:

"Chaotic Systems come in two shapes. Level 1 chaos is chaos that does not react to predictions about it. The weather, for example ... Level 2 chaos is chaos that reacts to predictions about it, and therefore can never be predicted accurately."

Shakespeare's Othello is disturbingly appropriate: "Chaos is come again."

UCI cognitive scientist Don Hoffman, author of The Case Against Reality: Why Evolution Hid the Truth from Our Eyes, suggests that science has been wrong in thinking that the brain uses sensory input to create accurate mental representations of reality. Rather, Hoffman claims that evolution selects for fitness over truth so humans perceive a false reality that is far more practical for survival but not consistent with a truth-seeking path. So, do we believe his theory is true, or not?

To fans of Life, the Universe, and Everything, the answer is 42. But thanks to memories fading over time, not to mention the Vogons, we don't know what the question was. Now Ethan Siegel tells us that "modern physics and mathematics offers five extremely interesting, fundamental questions to which 42 really is the answer." Would Douglas Adams agree? Infinitely improbable. To briefly summarize:

1. Rainbows: Light refracting in water droplets creates a rainbow at a 42 degree angle from the source.
2. A Base 10 Species: There are 42 unique, integer ways to partition 10 objects
   (interestingly, in binary, 10 is 1010 while 42 is 101010).
3. Identity Math: The equation 1 = 1/a + 1/b + 1/c + 1/d has only a few unique solutions if a, b, c, and d are all different, positive integers, the largest of which is 42.
4. Astrophysics: The estimated number of galactic years the Sun will experience before it becomes a red giant and consumes the Earth is 42.
5. Astrophysics: An estimate of how fast the universe is expanding is 42 miles per second per megaparsec.

I may have been one of the early users of the internet, tracing electronic hops across several universities on messages from UC Irvine to Technion in the early 1980s, but I have since been less likely to adopt new technologies. I only started using a cell phone a few years ago, I still listen to CDs, and I still have a landline phone. I was thus a bit surprised to learn that my phone etiquette is now apparently cutting edge. I rarely call anyone without first sending a text and thus I don't leave messages (I do admit my landline home phone is attached to an answering machine). Who'd have thought?

A sidebar to my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation.

Brash actions usually draw attention, and if you only want an audience, then the type of people you draw is irrelevant. But what if you want to draw people to make a point, a point that is simple to some but buried in the world's complexities? You want an audience that will think about your point and, if properly motivated and informed, will also rally to your perspective.

The Middle East has been in either constrained or rampant turmoil for my entire lifetime. When I listen to news reports and interviews, I gain perspectives on a problem that does not have a clear solution, at least not one that many involved are willing to try. But when I see a protest that stops a freeway, let alone a terrorist attack, my viewpoint quickly turns the other way. I understand the frustration that drives people to these positions but I do not agree that the ends justify the means. More importantly, the people who are most turned off if not angered by these actions are precisely the people who need to be convinced of your position. It's not the way to gain support.

The GOP tries to hold the country hostage because they think we spend too much of their money. We probably do but not funding the government and causing so much disruption and pain is not going to bring the people most affected by these actions to your side. Neither will the actions in the Middle East. These two events may seem to be completely different but they are not. In each case an unwillingness to compromise is reflected. When that occurs, the players at the table need to be removed.

The Week (6 October 2023) summarizes Brian Merchant's Washington Post column regarding calls that many workers are striking in part due to the surge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) threats to their livelihoods. The United Auto Workers (UAW) -- not the UAW UC grad students but the actual auto workers -- are on strike against the domestic auto industry. Industry argues that workers want a salary increase that would bankrupt industry, this after recent years have seen huge profits accruing to manufacturers who have been producing and selling ever-larger trucks and SUVs. There seems to be a compromise here.

Why doesn't industry agree to pay all employees a share of corporate profits? Yes, I know that there are ways to cheat (the film industry claimed that hugely successful projects actually lost money when all expenses were reflected so those who got a share of the gross got paid but those who got a share of the net did not). But this would allow employees to get bonuses when the industry is booming, but allow industry to maintain production when auto sales are down. AI may be inevitable so now's the time to start planning for the role of people in a AI world (see Luddite Awards).

Ian Duncan (13 October 2023) reports in The Washington Post (summarized in SmartBrief for Civil Engineers) that The Center for Multi-Modal Mobility in Urban, Rural, and Tribal Areas will examine, with funding from the federal infrastructure law, "how to build fairer, greener transportation networks, while promoting economic growth" and "will look at the possible benefits of fare-free transit; the design of complete streets that are safe for drivers, pedestrians and cyclists; and the role of autonomous vehicles in low-income communities." This Center does hit many of the policy a la mode topics of the day. Some topical excerpts below are drawn from interviews with center faculty, with commentary by yours truly.

Regarding public transit, an excerpt from Center faculty:

"There has been a consistent lack of investment in public transportation and not a lot of attention to other modes, especially no infrastructure at all for pedestrians and for bikers."

"... well above $1.3 trillion. With subsidies covering 75 percent of costs and averaging nearly
$5 per passenger trip, transit is one of the most heavily subsidized consumer-based industries
in the country."

Regarding complete streets, the Post asks whether that concept could spread outside of downtown areas and into suburbs? First, let's be a bit more judicious about usage. Most metropolitan growth is suburban, and many of the innovative applications of complete street ideas are in the suburbs (my "suburban city of Irvine, population 300,000 plus, has sidewalks and bike lanes on all streets, an off-street bikeway network, and is experimenting with protected on-street bikeways). Here, the main issue is costs and the immediate impact of reduced capacity of roadways which divert traffic to other local streets. Yes, work is needed, but much is being done.

Regarding fare-free transit, an excerpt from Center faculty:

"These projects are very controversial. In Europe, there are no very successful cases of fare-free public transportation. The results in the literature are not overwhelmingly good. In the U.S., we don't know yet because we are just starting."

Regarding autonomous vehicles, an excerpt from Center faculty:

"Imagine you own a car: You have to pay for gas; you have to pay registration and the insurance. But if we can have shared mobility with autonomous vehicles, because there are no drivers, the costs can be much lower. It may be for low-income communities, shared mobility would be a better choice because they only pay maybe five bucks per day to commute, and compared with buying a car and maintaining a car, that would be much, much cheaper."

In The Irvine Standard (May 2021), Joel Kotkin writes about the City of Irvine, leading to a tentative conclusion regarding the urban/rural dichotomy. There isn't one. The answer to which is better, in compromise, just might be the suburbs. While most urban dwellers could never live in a rural area, most can understand that some people like rural areas. Hell, urban dwellers often vacation in rural areas. And those who live in rural areas often have parallel proclivities (just flip the two words in the above sentence). So where do most people live? That's right, the compromise solution of the suburbs.

The urban landscape architect Frederick Law Olmsted wrote that "No great town can long exist without great suburbs." Kotkin reports research by Wendall Cox who found that over the past few decades, over 90 percent of growth has been in the suburbs. Those who claim cities are where this growth has occurred are wrong -- it's metropolitan areas that include, if not feature, suburbs. Also according to Cox, over this period suburban and exurb areas have also accounted for the vast majority of job creation and new patents.

Some interesting facts about Irvine: commutes are among the shortest in California; it features an urban forest (over a half million trees); is about 60 percent permanent open space (undeveloped open space, accessible only by hikers and bikers and the occasional horse); and features state-of-the-art hospitals, colleges, K-12 schools, and major companies, all in a central location, providing a healthy and sustainable community, all created in just over 50 years.

When a newspaper article )"The Hope and Hype of Hydrogen (David Gelles, The New York Times, 17 October 2023) starts with "Imagine..." then we're probably not talking about tomorrow or anytime soon. It's inevitable. And halfway in is a quote from UCI Professor Jack Brouwer, director of the National Fuel Cell Research Center:

"Over time, as the infrastructure gets built out everywhere, we will see a huge private investment
in the production ... and delivery of hydrogen in these cheaper ways. Someday, renewable, clean
hydrogen will be cheaper than what we are paying today for gasoline. It's inevitable."

Consider "Of Late I Think of Cliffordville," a classic episode of Rod Serling's The Twilight Zone from 11 April 1963. A rich tycoon swaps his fortune to go back in time to Cliffordville and acquire oil rich land but then finds that the technology to extract the oil will not be available for a quarter of a century. Submitted for your approval, I hope they let us know when their hype is transformed into something within our grasp. Even if it's inevitable.

The whimsical structure of a local list serve post drew my attention, although the topic itself was not of direct interest. The so-called Trolley Problem -- see A False Choice Redux (6 September 2022) -- was mentioned as an analogous situation to an "unwanted small appliance" problem, and a second analogy was made to the frequent problem of coyotes in the area, suggesting that all three problems had a similar lack of solutions.

The Trolley Problem has recently been posed for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) asking what should an AV do when faced with the trolley's dilemma (run into several people who are where they shouldn't be or swerve and hit a single innocent bystander). Well, the answer when designing such a new technology is not to design and integrate a complex choice philosophy but do design better brakes. And, while you're at it, design better means to avoid such conflicts in mixed mode environments. Applying this to the problem of what to do with "used small appliances" says that the best way to address unexpected situations is to avoid creating unexpected situations (that would be the reduce part of reduce, reuse, or recycle). It's, of course, usually too late when disposing of stuff that one no longer needs, but a little planning is the place to start.

Odd that many opponents of AVs in San Francisco complain about AVs stopping in traffic when their systems are unsure how to handle certain situations. But this is precisely what they should be doing. Very much like an inexperienced or limited skill driver who annoys the hell out of you because they don't know what to do in new situations when they are after all behaving, in the moment, rationally. Such behavior may not be acceptable on a freeway but in a dense, multi-modal urban setting it should be expected.

Many situations such as these need to be addressed or they will come back and bite you in the ass. The original list serve poster included a link to an absolutely wonderful Muppets clip. It's unlikely that AVs or coyotes (or used small appliances) are going to disappear anytime soon. The poster rues the day they moved from a house with plenty of storage space where they could have kept their extra stuff, but too much stuff is precisely why these problems keep coming back to bite you in the ass.

The Dead's sixth studio album, "Wake of the Flood," was released 50 years ago today. I was never a Deadhead but 49 years ago I found myself in a Buffalo dorm room mesmerized by Eyes of the World, but still a fraction of my reaction as when I heard the live version that was recorded on 29 March 1990 at the Nassau Coliseum with Branford Marsalis.

Sometimes we ride on your horses, sometimes we walk alone
Sometimes the songs that we hear are just songs of our own

In my initial Disinhibited post, the general concept was introduced and the example of digital behavior was considered. The concept was that many problems that permeate life are rooted in the increasing complexity of the world. In apparent defiance of physics, the sum of the momenta of the forces of media and technology appears greater than the individual moments. Furthermore, despite all of these often interacting problems, it seems there is more time available in our daily lives for entertainment than ever before. Think "reality TV."

This interplay of media and technology has accentuated the bifurcation of man's duality. Clear lines between public and private lives have been blurred by anonymized technology-enhanced social media. In Freudian terms, the super-ego is no longer effective in moderating the id as the external environment is internalized. It is now much easy to allow your inner Mr. Hyde into the external world of your Dr. Jekyll, when no one knows the two are becoming one in the same. As Stevenson wrote in The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde:

"I learned to recognize the thorough and primitive duality of man; I saw that, of the two natures that contended in the field of my consciousness, even if I could rightly be said to be either, it was only because I was radically both."

The desire for power drives people to action but most people are constrained by a wall of complexity and turn to "leaders" for guidance, whether negative or positive, to lessen their own complexity and to share in the leader's power. This minimization of complexity while increasing potential power is the root cause of many of the ills discussed in my first Disinhibited post.

This online disinhibition effect, as suggested by a colleague, can be applied to a car disinhibition effect which can result in behaviors such as road rage. My colleague asked: "Is experiencing life through a windshield more similar to screen life than real life? A car is internally a personal environment (see my post Staying and Going) and simultaneously demarcates an external environment. In this regard, a car is very much like the internet or many crowd actions, each which can allow you to act with disinhibition since a level of anonymity is provided (BTW, I'm a strong believer that online opinions should not be posted anonymously).

My prior Disinhibited post also quoted my colleagues email response to my In Flight post commenting "perhaps the art was never meant to be explained but experienced." I posed a general response: "Perhaps that applies to life in general ..." I'm not sure it does but trying to figure that out is an attempt at explanation rather than just "acceptance of the experience." A point was also raised regarding "what is meant by 'meant'?" I never imply and one should not infer any grand plan, creator, or intervening force other than nature behind any of my beliefs. With the constraints of nature, humans seek fundamental needs and, when those needs are met, humans seek to fulfill more advanced desires such as explanation. I believe that religions are human creations for reasons of gaining power by providing meaning to individuals who faced primarily fundamental needs (meanings that were usually simple but often severe, such as "sin and go to hell"). Interesting, one could argue philosophy is similar to religion but I see a distinction in that philosophy seeks to explain while religion seeks to control experiences. Why is this important? It seems that the tenets of many religions are now being applied with disinhibition to all people, regardless of their individual beliefs. What "leaders" profess in seeking power becomes mantra for the masses, for whom simple beliefs are less confounding than real understanding and acceptance of differences.

After unintentionally sloughing off on a poem, I now join those praising a most relevant one.

In the preface of Slouching toward Bethlehem, Joan Didion writes about "evidence of atomization, the proof that things fall apart." Physics or social physics, I can't argue with that. Unlike Didion, however, I've never thought that writing was an irrelevant act (at least not any more irrelevant than most other daily acts) but I do agree that "the world as I understood it no longer existed" (however, I do not see this necessarily as a negative). Things change. I do share her "suspicion that nobody out there is listening" but here too I think I understand why (the complexity of life leads to, where ever possible, simple choices).

From Yeats "The Second Coming" (1919):

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

"And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"

Unlike In Flight, the subject of my earlier post, Yeats' The Second Coming has extensive interpretations, but that does not limit current interpretations. We now face a re-ordering within our country, one that may well be driven by the blind leading the blind, complexity that overwhelms the senses, and a dire need for a guiding light. What did we get?

People pissed that their leaders don't pay attention to them so they find perhaps the only option who literally does not care about them (other than their vote), or about anything except himself. Me/Now is nothing more than an arsonist who is willing to burn down anything as long as he can profit from it and stay out of jail. People with his prodigious lack of leadership qualities are a dime a dozen (many are wearing red caps) and somehow they've decided to parade en masse to their own demise, sailing on floats of lies, conspiracies, and insults while Me/Now "leads" then from a safe distance, counting the money they've already sent him. A rough beast indeed.

So reads the headline in an Essential California e-News article by Brittny Mejia and David Zahniser (9 October 2023) followed by "Some constituents say yes." My response? Of course he's forgiven. But not forgotten. Asked about his decision to run again, de Leon conveniently talks about many of the constituents he'd spoken with since his racist conversation with other LA Council members was recorded. "They've had my back for many, many years," he said. "And how could I not have theirs?" What hubris. De Leon didn't have their backs when that conversation was recorded and nothing's been said about whether words spoken were an anomaly.

There are simply too many qualified people to represent Americans in state and federal offices. The problem is not the few we may lose due to incidents like what occurred to de Leon; rather, the problem is those politicians with even more than one faux pas even more egregious who manage to stay in office claiming the political newspeak of those with careers in public office. It's a job, Waldo, and it's easy to find all of you in state and federal elective office. We need term limits. What should befall de Leon is just a convenient exit strategy. If you respect your constituents then prove it. Move on and make amends in public service in other ways.

If any member of Congress thinks that the Federal government is spending too much money then, rather than trying to stop these funds from being collected from the country as a whole, they should propose a law where the federal taxes collected in their state are reduced with a concomitant reduction in the federal fund allocation flowing back to their state. That state can then "put their money where their mouth is" and determine whether their own state taxes should cover federal programs eliminated due to their financial wisdom. Red states whose representatives are more likely to oppose federal spending typically receive more federal funding than they give.

A report by the Transportation Research Board (NCHRP RRD 404 "Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America's Transportation Infrastructure") begins with:

"The creation of the Interstate Highway System, like the development of the first transcontinental railroad a century earlier, was transformational, ushering in a new era of transportation, economic development, and social change in the nation's history."

The vision in each case was not the unique stroke of individual forward thinking but the sum total of the ideas and work of many people. The Interstates would have been built whether Eisenhower anecdotes were true or not. The transcontinental railroad made fortunes for a few individuals (and continues to favor railroads today) but many other negatives are rarely discussed. The moon landing was in our sights well before Kennedy's speech.

My point is that transformational changes required many vision statements by many people, and the ideas and work of many more. When a national call to achieve transformational objectives is made, the transformational implications of that call should be simultaneously addressed. To be fair, the TRB report does start to address these concerns but the proof, as they say, will be in the pudding. Perhaps like the character who coined that expression, I'm just tilting at windmills.

Republicans booted McCarthy due to his compromise with Democrats on the federal budget, but needed Democratic support to remove him as Speaker. Once again, it's probably just a few hundred members of Congress that give the others a bad name.

I never thought I'd be quoting part of a song by Social Distortion but, when life gives you lemons:

Yeah, good times come and good times go
I only wish the good times would last a little longer
I think about the good times we had
And why they had to end

Life goes by so fast
You only want to do what you think is right
Close your eyes and then it's past
Story of my life

I chatter, chatter, as I flow
To join the brimming river,
For men may come and men may go,
But I go on for ever.

"The $1 micro bus that costs Metro $43 a ride" is the title of an LA Times article (19 September 2023) on a microtransit system being tested in Los Angeles. What is microtransit? As defined by SAE (1921)

"Microtransit is a privately or publicly operated, technology-enabled transit service
that typically uses multi-passenger/pooled shuttles or vans to provide on-demand or
fixed-schedule services with either dynamic or fixed routing."

There's another wrinkle. If fixed-route public transit is provided in an area, then ADA requires that paratransit services must also be provided for people with disabilities. If any one benefits, then all must have access to that benefit; if one cannot benefit due to a disability, then none can benefit from that public service.

Joshua Schank, former chief innovation officer for LA Metro, said the service "was worth it if it's going to improve people's lives dramatically." The question real question however is "who pays?" If employers in low density areas benefit by expanded labor markets, should not they pay? If users choose the high-cost service because the low cost service is lower quality, should not the price for quality be increased or the quality of the low price option be raised? If the service is a part of a larger system looking for more users, should not the service be directed only toward getting riders to that system and not to the rider's final destination?

From Tim McGraw's Standing Room Only, written by Craig Wiseman, Patrick Murphy, and Tommy Cecil:

I wanna live a life ... Like a dollar and the clock on the wall don't own me
Shine a light ... Like mama's front porch when I'm lost and lonely
Start forgivin' and start forgettin' / Be somebody that's worth rememberin'
Live a life so when I die / There's standing room only ...

Stop judging my life by my possessions
Start thinking 'bout how many headlights will be in my procession

To be remembered. Isn't this after all why most people are doing what they're doing, even those guided by "a dollar and the clock?" Will others respect your choices and celebrate them when you're gone, or will you just be forgotten, "scattered like dust" or washed away with "the pouring rain?" Gone and forgotten. Aren't most people searching for the same thing, a measure of immortality? Wouldn't being noticed be more rewarding while you're still making choices? And isn't it ironic that this epiphany that chasing after wealth and success can leave you empty-handed was sung by someone with wealth and success?

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"There is also an historical trend that every generation looks back at the last one and isn't happy with how they spent their time, whether it's comic books, rock and roll, or video games.

"This isn't a story about love. This is a story about fate. Or statistics.
Really just depends on who you're talking to."

"Dallas Fed economists found California was the fourth 'stickiest' state with 73% of its residents being native-born. Stickiness refers to percentage of residents of a state who were born there."

Watching a football game, I saw a TV commercial, one I've seen twice before and each time concluded "what a dumbass commercial." But watch it I did, which you might say explains the content (ads are designed to capture viewer attention, as a step to capturing their dollars), but I can honestly say that I have no idea what was being advertised. Full disclosure: I've never bought anything because of a TV commercial. It is often the case that I'm annoyed by some aspect enough to keep watching but not enough to see what was being advertised. What is it about such spots that's enough to capture my attention, but only to a point? Who watches these and concludes "Hey, cool: I want one of those"? (Yes, that's a rhetorical question.)

According to a recent study (19 September 2023) by Pew Research, 65 percent of Americans say they "always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics." Who knew that number of Americans actually thought about politics? I refer to thought as conscious and intentional consideration and not just passing thoughts or knee-jerk reactions. They may be exhausted but they're still participating by voting. Pew suggests that higher voter turnouts may represent an increased entertainment value. It also may reflect the prevalence of political gamesmanship in all forms of media or maybe just the perception of "something different" (as in "someone different" who promises that all their problems will be solved so they can all return to their screen lives). For more on life's complexity and its impact on public affairs, see my prior post Disinhibited as well as Self-Control via Self-Delusion (6 September 2023) and Whelmed (3 October 2022).

The study's results, however, showed some real thought behind the exhaustion, revealing that "majorities back age and term limits and eliminating the Electoral College." But only a small portion of respondents expressed hopefulness or excitement (4-10 percent) and similarly small portions rarely or never expressed exhaustion and anger (9-11 percent). The Pew Results show that strong majorities believe that issues and policies get too little attention and partisan fighting gets too much attention. Are politicians listening? Of course not. I'm not even sure that the respondents were listening to their own comments.

The problem is not perpetual biases in race, gender, culture, and wealth; these problems have always existed. The problem is neither AI nor obsessive screen time on social media or other forms of entertainment; there have always been distractions. The problem is not radical politics where so-called leaders are essentially headliners in the ultimate reality series, seeking control of the media and thus wealth and power; there have always been promises of a chicken in every pot.

The problem is complexity. And complexity can lead to chaos. Specifically, the problem is the human response to complexity, namely the continuous diminishing of the ability to comprehend concepts that are not elementary, thoughts that are not superficial, and ideas that may run contrary to established dogma. And in a time when it is critically important to grasp some portion of this growing complexity. Any resolution to this problem will neither be quick nor easy, and will likely require re-learning of knowledge, re-tooling of skills, and re-consideration of the status quo. As Michael Roth wrote:

"The alternative to learning, to experimenting with other points of view and new domains of inquiry, is increasing partisanship and close-mindedness. We are already seeing this in very public refusals to listen to people with contrary views; in the rejection of basic science; in the petty nastiness that comes from the resentment that other people are learning something you don't know."

Megan Garber's article We're Already in the Metaverse in The Atlantic (March 2023) examines the blurred lines between fact and fiction, between real life and media representation. She argues that this process produces, as psychologist John Suler described it, an "online disinhibition effect" in which "people in digital spaces ... act in ways they never would offline." Read the article. For related posts, see Life Imitates Art Imitates Life... (23 May 2023) and Here We Are Now, Entertain Us (31 July 2022). I've always strived to understand but a colleague reacting to my "In Flight" post suggested that "perhaps the art was never meant to be explained but experienced." Perhaps that applies to life in general, but is it real?

Synchronicity: A month ago, a magazine article was forwarded to me but I didn't have an opportunity to read it. Later, I was given a copy of the March 2023 The Atlantic. A dozen or so pages in (from the back cover, an old and odd habit of mine) I found a poem which struck me on several levels (although not on the level of the poem itself). My blog post In Flight was my reaction. Last night during a somewhat common 3 AM epiphany, I noticed that the article that was sent to me was in The Atlantic just given to me. While most of my 3 AM epiphanies send me to my desk to take notes, this one was stronger. The content was strongly correlated with many things on which I have focused some attention over the past few months and resulted in this post.

Josh Smith and Jennifer Morales (22 April 2022) writing in The CGO, start with "the environment needs more people, not fewer." What the environment needs is fewer such shallow assessments.

Starting with "Erlich was wrong" since food and energy production has exceeded population growth misses the point: will this always be the case? The authors argue that "People are not just bellies to fill or a carbon footprint to minimize. People create solutions." Some people do create (at least temporary) solutions; unfortunately, most do remain "bellies to fill."

The authors rationalize their position claiming more people translates into "saving a billion lives worldwide by developing disease-resistant and high-yielding crops" but this does not address how many lives are lost each year to famine, disease, and pestilence. Nearly 10 million people die each year due to hunger and the number of hungry people globally has been increasing each year since 2015 (approaching 1 billion in total). It's not surprising, when capitalist economics rely on growth -- more people buying more goods -- that anything that suggests less people can't be good for somebody's bottom line. To maintain growth under the assumption that more people will create solutions for the resource and environmental problems that these very people actually create is simply the blind hoping what worked yesterday will continue to work tomorrow.

Referencing the concept of dematerialization, the authors provide a spurious example:

"your phone has replaced a whole collection of goods that you would have bought separately 50 years ago -- CDs, GPS, clocks, calculators, and cameras."

The authors also quote from Andrew McAfee's book, More from Less,, but again miss the (same) point. Less resources per unit of consumption is good, but resource requirements are not approaching zero, nor is population growth. They bolster their argument by quoting economist Paul Romer who argues that "the pantry of ideas grows with population" but this is a simple correlation. I think that most economists would agree that although the pantry of ideas may grow with wealth, the equitable sharing of wealth diminishes. Perhaps the authors should distance themselves just a bit from their capitalist economics and corresponding heroes who have benefited in fame and fortune from just these policies. Maybe the environment needs fewer economists, not more.

If their assessment is correct, this process would necessarily produce a virtual world with nothing remaining of the original natural world -- no resources and no elements that are not economically beneficial, which eventually could include humans themselves. In their capitalist mindset, it's only about growth: more ideas producing more economic benefits while maintaining a culture of consumption. As Robert Fripp said:

"Forty years ago there was a market economy. Today there is a market society
-- today everything, including ethics, has a price."

A tribute to the late Jimmy Buffett (1946-2023), in his own words:

According to my watch, the time is now.
The past is dead and gone.
Don't try to explain it, just bow your head.
Breathe in. Breathe out. Move on.

The consummate traveler, Bruce Chatwin wrote two of my favorite books, "The Songlines" and "In Patagonia". Much of his writing focused on the fundamental human conflict between the desire for going and the need for staying, referencing nomadic people as continuing an intrinsic part of human evolution: those who wandered out of necessity, often seasonally repeating paths which define habits and homelands. It's a fundamental dichotomy: the need to stay, which secures one's place and belongings (stuff), and the urge to roam, which expands one's opportunities to gain resources (more stuff), and to find better nests.

On a rather cynical note, I don't think that humans have evolved much over the years, and in fact may have devolved culturally over the last few decades. Despite removing much of the uncertainty of survival (at least in the developed world), greed drives almost all of our actions and beliefs. This opinion is not inconsistent with my general take on human behavior, which derives from observation, and a bit of George Carlin and Bruce Chatwin (among many others). George Carlin had a great bit about "stuff." Everyone has stuff (the more, the better, for most of us), and everyone needs a place to put it. Some stuff is hidden, some is advertised, some is just stored and often forgotten (mainly because we have too much stuff and it was the act of having and not the stuff itself that resulted in the original acquisition). At times we have to go places (more on that below) and in doing so we usually need to take some of our stuff with us. This can create all sorts of problems as to what to do with that stuff. You take and leave subsets of your stuff as you travel, always certain to make a place for your stuff at each place that you go. Perhaps cars are the ultimate stuff, providing a place to stay and a means to go, a yin and yang, not to mention a place to keep more of your stuff.

In the (real) old days you pretty much left what little stuff you had in your cave (or you'd wear it on your person). This is the start of human behavior that is effectively "nesting". Home became "the place where, when you go there," you find your stuff (sort of what Frost said). However, the act of going may be to get away from all the accumulating stuff. That fundamental human conflict between going and staying, that intrinsic, nomadic aspect of human evolution where hunter/gatherers who wandered out of necessity, remains fundamental. We still face the dichotomy of the need to stay, to secures one's place and belongings, and the need to roam, to expands one's opportunities to gain resources. So the home (the nest) is a fundamental need, that becomes more of an anchor when the home takes on the role of repository for stuff and not just a nesting place.

This dichotomy contributes strongly to the automobile culture. One's car is an extension of one's home (and an extension that allows quite a bit of one's stuff to go along). This is why an auto commute will never be equivalent to a commute by a less personal mode. When people board any form of transit, they are not home until they actually reach their house. With a car, one is in an extension of this place as soon as the door is shut -- it's the personal environment of the traveler, within their total control, which can negate the dis-benefits of travel.

Perhaps this is where some ideas on "the positive utility of travel" arise. Despite reported evidence that some people have indicated a desire to travel (commute) even farther/longer, I can't believe that this is a conscious desire to accrue more costs (time, money, etc.), nor is it because there is a positive direct utility of travel. I believe that it is because travel is being accomplished simultaneously with a "place-based" activity (the need to stay, with many of the benefits of a place to stay, including control of one's environment). It is this aspect of the observed travel that people derive benefit from, not the travel itself. The travel portion is simply the mechanism that allows the other benefit to accrue. If you were to impose a ride-sharer on the driver, then the desirability of the trip would typically be reduced even though the costs may remain the same (or even decrease, in monetary terms). Similarly, if you were to offer a sub-place within the home, in lieu of a portion of a trip (or even a longer trip), with a guarantee of sovereignty, I would bet that most would choose to forego the travel (although the travel portion would in the real world have a higher probability of being inviolate versus the sub-place, say a den, home office, or garage). In the past, bars and pubs have provided this benefit to commuters who walked (or maybe took forms of public transit).

There can, of course, be broad benefits of "moving" but, traditionally, this is derived from the opportunities presented to the traveler while moving. I'm not sure if habitual commuters could derive any benefit similar to what nomadic (often seasonal) wanderers do, given the relative repetition frequencies. Travel can also be seen as running away from a place or situation, an avoidance or flight mechanism, but staying can also be avoidance.

Real travelers (rather than tourists) take little stuff with them, and bring little additional stuff back. Their benefit derives from the journey (the places visited, but also the travel itself). Here there may well be a positive utility for travel, although this form of travel is actually an activity. But real travel is too often overwhelmed by tourist travel where your stuff goes along and with the need to accumulate souvenirs and to document where you've been. But travel can provide a "place" for the accrual of benefits, while simultaneously providing a level of mobility.

I'll conclude with Daniel Dennett in "Consciousness Explained" (Dennett attributes the original mention to Rodolfo Llinas). I find it humorous for both my interest in odd creatures and my distaste for academia. And it also addresses going and staying in a rather humorous manner:

"The juvenile sea squirt wanders through the sea searching for a suitable rock or hunk of coral to cling to and make its home for life. For this task, it has a rudimentary nervous system. When it finds its spot and takes root, it doesn't need its brain anymore so it eats it. It's rather like getting tenure."

Like many similar blues, this ZZ Top song is not one that begs a study of meaning. It's not about Jesus (yes, I did look at several sites that attempted to interpret song meanings and, well, don't waste your time) but it's an intriguing blues, no matter how you try to interpret it. A lyrical tour has "Jesus" leaving Chicago, bound for New Orleans, and as train stations often announced, "all points in between." It should be mentioned that there is a well-documented flow of the blues from the south to Chicago. The second verse finds "Jesus" in Mississippi where "muddy water turn(ed) to wine." McKinley Morganfield (better known as Muddy Waters) was born in Clarksdale, Mississippi and migrated to Chicago, taking the delta blues with him. The verse ends with "Jesus" heading to "California through the forests and the pines." Why California? It means anywhere and everywhere. The final verse says "you might not see him in person but he'll see you just the same" and a final reference to "takin' care of business."

So what does it all mean? Considering the artistic license provided to any song, what we have here is a song about salvation, not in a formal religious sense but as seeking success on a life path that with hard work, good friends, and lucky breaks may lead to success along that path (here, likely a musical path). However, the band who wrote and recorded "La Grange," Tube Snake Boogie," "Pearl Necklace," and "Woke Up with Wood," was likely not evangelical.

I read a poem. The very mention suggests that I do not do this often, and finding the poem was basically a random act. There was something about the physical layout on the page that caught my eye, and I had an experience not unlike that with an unfocused viewing of a TV commercial: part way in I began to wonder just what was I viewing. While TV commercials and literary works are not usually compared, the commonality was not my lack of interest but rather my lack of comprehension. In most cases (okay, in virtually all cases) I'm not going to buy the product, and probably not the poem.

After reading this free verse poem, my question was not "what is this about" but rather "what possibly could be the title of this poem?" Unlike most TV commercials, when I finished the poem I still could not see what the connection could be. So I started to make other comparisons. How did the poem compare with any of my blog entries (including a few lyrics and poems)? In my posts, as I've intended and also explained:

"... there's almost always hidden meaning, and beauty is in the mind's eye of the beholder."

There was no overall structure that jumped out at me, nor was there any internal structure that I was able to grasp from my perspective. The words didn't resonate and any implied message was totally lost on me. The poem was a painting with different words substituting for different colors, but there was no intensity for me. This is usually the case for many forms of poetry and paintings, but something in me always wants to understand. So why is it with such poems and paintings, as well as most commercials, I can so easily just walk away?

In the transportation field, there's a trade-off between addressing a problem with current knowledge and policies, and increasing our understanding of potential options and perhaps what should be done to address a problem. An admittedly oversimplification: engineers and planners apply accepted principle in planning, design, and operations to address existing and evolving problems. Large sums of money are allocated by decision-makers and expended by consultants and agencies, seemingly more often than not, without addressing the original problems. This process only works in "long range planning time." Typically, by the time any major problems are identified, analyzed, planned, programmed, designed. and implemented, a decade or more has passed. By the time ex post evaluation is completed, it might be 20 years. All the same time, the research that is being funded and completed tends to be bite-sized pieces designed more to fit the process of having students finish degrees and publishing research papers, rather that actually addressing real problems. I am not saying that research should be more practical. I'm saying that research should be better funded. We need more and better data on human behavior and not simply real time tracings with cell phones or other sensors. Human behavior is not observable in those data, only the outcomes of unobserved behavioral processes that likely vary significantly over and within individuals over time. Not only will the game remain one of catch-up, but I fear that after many decades it is now becoming one of falling behind.

* Post inspired by Toks Omishakin, California's Secretary of Transportation, following a talk at ITS Irvine.

Domestic traffic fatalities are up. Way up. Why? In the LA Times' Essential California ENews, Ryan Fonseca (8 September 2023) suggests that there's a "car-sized hole in e-bike safety concerns." Is there?

The article focuses on kids using e-bikes and concludes that there are "conditions of extreme peril ... caused by the increased prevalence of [e-bikes and other motorized mobility devices] ... on city streets." The numbers back this up. Pre-pandemic fatalities were in the mid to high 30,000s; this has increased to over 42,000 with fatalities of pedestrian and those using micromobility modes increasing much more rapidly. But it's not "a car-sized hole."

It's physics. Larger cars hitting a micromobility mode leads to fatalities. There are other potential causal factors: more drivers with less experience due to cuts in transit, changing road conditions as volumes increase post-pandemic, increases in micromobility modes, and even the performance of e-bikes which allow users with less experience to travel at higher speeds in mixed traffic. There are also equity impacts with a higher portion of residents in lower income areas having greater fatality rates. This could likely be explained in part by exposure rates. In increased pedestrian and bike volumes in the face of transit cuts compounded by more drivers with less experience.

The question begs analysis as to which if any of these factors have causal impact, and then to address these factors via design and policy to improve safety.

The 60s were great. My older brother brought home every new Stones LP and my older sister brought home every new Beatles LP. For me, there wasn't much of a choice until 1970 when the Beatles split and the Stones soared with the addition of Mick Taylor, and another brother started playing the Allman Brothers every morning on a record player in endless repeat mode (so 23 minutes of Whipping Post turned into an entire morning of Duane and Dickie at their finest). And I discovered progressive music.

Fast forward to 2023 and the Stones are dropping their first album of new music in nearly two decades, with all sorts of possibilities realized (Charlie plays on two tracks, some bass player from Liverpool apparently sits in on one, and I assume Chuck plays keys throughout). The first single Angry has an angry Stones riff and the video follows a young, anything but angry lady in a Mercedes SL convertible driving down a Sunset corridor lined with live action billboards featuring vintage Stones videos (that include Charlie, Bill, and Mick T). Great video. Great song. What's there to be angry about?

In a review of Naomi Klein's Doppelganger, Chris Vognar writes in the LA Times (5 September 2023):

"What makes consumers with nothing tangible to gain subscribe to woo-woo theories? The way Klein sees it, when reality is too much to bear, many escape into fantasy. The illusion of control, or at least comprehension, is often more tolerable than the chaos that increasingly surrounds us."

Vognar concludes the review by connecting Klein's Doppelganger with both Yeat's The Second Coming and Didion's Slouching Toward Bethlehem. Didion's essay considered "the existential crisis of the 1960s." How many times have you heard a reference to our democracy facing an existential crisis today? The counterculture of the 1960s posed little threat in loosely following the mantra "turn on, tune in, drop out." Today's counterculture has been armed with lies, conspiracies, and weapons and is now blindly serving an egotistical, immoral iconoclast. Be scared.

Some things have always been shared including many public spaces such as parks, roads, and schools as well as hotel rooms, restaurant tables, and many modes of public transportation including ride hailing. Sharing has now taken on a fundamentally new meaning. Neighbors used to shared various household tools and gadgets, and friends shared books, music, and even clothes. Sharing is now organized for profit, and not just for the profit of those sharing. Some people have always rented out rooms and with new apps even more people now do. But how many people really want to share their house, car, and clothes? How many want to share possessions with complete strangers, and not just with friends and family. In effect, sharing as a fundamentally kind and generous act has been expropriated into another service where commodities are bought and sold.

Pay It Forward leads to stronger societal bonds. Paying a transaction agent leads to the exact opposite.

Can you imagine someone who wishes to borrow a monkey wrench from a neighbor two doors down but can only do so by negotiating with the neighbor in between who charges a fee to complete the transaction? it's not about the end benefits and costs (which may have different pay-back periods) to the transacting parties; it's about the profit for the go-between who provides the transaction means. Do these ends justify these means?

There are concerns associated with each of the sharing economy's participants:

1. Users
   When sharing, any personal information exchanged on the web has associated privacy concerns, for all parties involved. To utilize shared good and services, users provide personal, economic, and location information. Background checks by sharing companies still leave a level of risk to personal safety to users.
2. Providers
   The sharing economy features independent contractors who bear the risk and do not receive employment benefits. If residences, cars, or other goods and services are shared, then parties previously unknown to the provider have access and use of your residence, vehicle, or other possessions. Investment in goods (residences, cars) to be shared can be seen as equivalent of a reverse mortgage with some cash up front but depreciated property at the end.
3. Sharing Industry
   The sharing economy reflects a new economic model with sharing companies providing a service but typically no infrastructure (no vehicles, no residences), but receiving a significant portion of the profits.
4. Region
   It's been hypothesized that both environmental impacts and prices would decrease in a sharing economy, but it is unclear what levels of change will result (for example, will ride hailing increase or decrease VMT).

Part 1. Apophenia
Pattern Recognition is a fundamental human trait, one that likely led to early humans surviving and evolving in the presence of many dangers. But this doesn't mean that there's always a real pattern to detect. Apophenia is the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things (Wikipedia). The basic problem lies in perceiving some level of causality rather than simple correlation or chance. There are 42 related, personal examples considered in this blog: Three Things and Another Day.

While recognizing connections is human behavior, acting irrationally on a perceived pattern can be a sign of haste, ignorance, or even a mental disorder. Negative impacts of apophenia can be avoided by, first, being aware of potential biases; second, accepting that not everything happens for a reason; and, third, by doing some research and fact checking. In our age of social media, many will violate these tenets regularly, which can lead to blind allegiance to false prophets, conspiracy theories, or a range of inappropriate behaviors.

Part 2. Mr Mojo Risin'
In "How to get your mojo back," Frank Martela proposes that those who are neither depressed nor happy are languishing.

"...our brains are wired to connect issues into meaningful patterns. Even meaning in life comes from connection ... the strategies to overcome languishing can be grouped around four different types of connection ... connecting with the situation, connecting with others, connecting with yourself, or connecting with a desired future."

Part 3. Juxtaposition
Something related but a little less heavy: Mr. Mojo Risin' is the repeated refrain in L.A. Woman by The Doors. It is also an anagram for Jim Morrison, a renowned member of the so-called 27 Club. People embrace the 27 Club as some sad badge of honor but a little fact checking will show that 56 is the more likely age for celebrities to die (3.7 percent) than 27 (only 1.3 percent). With whom and what do we choose to connect? Rather than perform due diligence, it is easier for many to embrace false prophets, conspiracy theories, and various inappropriate behaviors. Are these the connections that will disconnect us all from each other?

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is a performance metric that's been with us for a lifetime. Recent attention has not so much re-defined VMT, but has tended toward weaponizing the metric to achieve preferred policy goals. There is a fundamental question: Is VMT an input or an output? In a dynamic system defined by circular causality, maybe either could be claimed, but such a system can only be analyzed by "breaking the loop" and very little policy analyses do this. If VMT is an output, then it can be used as a measure of effectiveness of policy inputs. But what if it's an input? Can travel demand be expressed as a function of VMT? See In or Out? [13 April 2022]

Why can't VMT be an input? Because most people cannot conceptualize distance as a metric. Most people can understand qualitative concepts such as close, far, too far, or similar expressions but even here the speaker is usually using an expression for travel time, not distance. If individuals cannot represent spatial separation via distance metrics, how can they possibly express their overall demand for travel as a summation of that inexpressible metric?

Analysts with a supply-oriented perspective more likely have a preference for VMT as a measure of demand. It certainly makes their job simpler, and demand has never been well-represented in even sophisticated supply models. This too is the case for demand models, which usually represent supply in relatively simple terms (as some measure of travel time or as generalized cost). Travel forecasting models bring demand and supply (represented as system performance) together but, whether in trip-based or activity-based approaches, the interaction is usually approached in an iterative fashion. Oddly, it seems that it is not only the general traveler who cannot fully comprehend distance but also the travel modeler.

Mobility is often expressed in terms of VMT, at least by those who neither like VMT nor cars, but is mobility an input or an output? It makes more sense to define accessibility, a measure of potential, as an input and mobility, a measure of actual travel, as an output. This would suggest that using VMT as a measure of mobility (which I refute simply because people cannot conceptualize VMT) would make VMT an output, not an input. So what do individuals conceptualize as an output of their decision process? Likely activities and their associated utility.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"Recently updated population projections show the county losing over 1.7 million people between
now and 2060, a decrease of more than 17% from the current total of around 10 million."

"Nominating [Me/Now ... is a lot like peeing in your pants. It's gonna feel good for a
couple of seconds, but then you wake up and realize the realities of what you just did."

" Nearly four-fifths of Americans tell pollsters that their children will be worse off than they are. In fact America has sustained its decades-long record as the world's richest, most productive and most innovative big economy. Indeed, it is leaving its peers ever further in the dust. China and climate change remain real threats. But talking down the American economy is not only wrong in fact, it also breeds pessimistic policies like protectionism, lower immigration and government subsidies that could spoil the secret sauce which has made America so successful. "

Eunoia is the shortest English word that contains all five vowels (props to KO, and with apologies to Iouea, which is a created taxonomic genus and which is also the shortest four-syllable word in English). Its etymology is the Greek word for "well mind" or "beautiful thinking" and in rhetoric eunoia is the good will that speakers attempt to establish with their audiences. Aristotle said that a speaker must exhibit ethos, which encompasses wisdom (phronesis), virtue (arete), and good will (eunoia). In this blog I aspire to achieve this, but more often than not I'm really just following my muse (specifically, the Boeotian muses - Aoede (voice), Melete (thought), and Mneme (memory) - rather than their more familiar artistic counterparts). But often I'm just being snarky.

"My best ideas come to me when I'm bored. I'd love to be bored more, but there just isn't time."
Sam Reich

"I kicked the habit. Shed my skin.
This is the new stuff. I go dancing in." (Peter Gabriel)

A half dozen Northeast and Midwest cities have been lauded by the media as climate havens that claim greater safety from the worst effects of climate change. The Conversation, as reported in SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (29 August 2023), summarizes a study by the University of Michigan that casts doubts. I agree.

The thing is, the Earth's climate is changing rapidly. Wildfires in Maui and tropical storms in SoCal might just be rare outliers but overall heat levels are the highest in human history and weather patterns are clearly changing. Any city that has well-maintained infrastructure that was designed to address historical weather patterns will likely not be able to address rapidly evolving patterns. There are no "haven cities." There are quite likely no havens remaining either. It's the whole Earth that is changing and, whether rate of acceleration or absolute levels, that is almost certainly due to carbon in the atmosphere due to burning fossil fuels.

The Governor of Hawaii has signed SB 1534 to create the first domestic mileage-based road usage charge, designed to slowly replace conventional state motor fuel taxes. Beginning 1 July 2025, electric vehicles (EVs) will have the option of a $50 annual flat rate or a mileage-based road usage charge of 0.8 cents per mile (but a maximum of $50 annually). Since Hawaii requires annual safety checks, the fee will be based on odometer mileage. Also, since Hawaii is an island virtually all of the miles will be in state. These two operational problems would need to be addressed prior to deployment elsewhere. In 2028 the road usage charge will be mandatory for all EVs and for all vehicles by 2033. [Hawaii Road Usage Charge HiRUC].

In "Homo Deus" Yuval Noah Harari writes of The Modern Covenant:

"Modernity is a surprisingly simple deal ... humans agree to give up meaning in exchange for power."

Capitalism may not be an ideal economic system but, like democracy as a political system, it's likely better than all the other options. This is especially true when a balance of powers exists between and within the public and private sectors. The primary benefit of a balance of powers is that it prevents any one individual or small group from seizing power, as we see occurring in authoritarian regimes all over the globe and threatening right here at home. This is also why a written constitution is so important, despite the fact that language, if not beliefs, evolve over time eroding the effectiveness of such a document to guide us into the future. Changing the constitution should be difficult: while dated language is problematic, the threat of reactionary and poorly considered changes could be much worse. Resolution of our biggest problems, however, may require constitutional amendments. For example, applying term limits to the legislative and judicial branches as we have to the executive branch. A more rapid turnover of legislators and judges can maintain a level of experience while reducing the likelihood of disproportionate power accruing in one branch, party, or person.

Google Maps can be utilized to select travel routes and thus can have a significant impact on traffic congestion. A new Google route option algorithm (RouteE) considers fuel-efficiency by assessing real-time network traffic conditions. Texas A&M researchers examined this algorithm using onboard diagnostic (OBD) data loggers on acceleration profiles and results suggest that the RouteE algorithm doesn't reflect congestion-induced speed changes. There has been significant advances in routing algorithms, especially in real-time applications, but these models do not reflect demand dynamics. When selecting a route, particularly a longer route, the speeds that exist when selecting will not likely be the speeds experienced when driving the route. It might be that the average over some defined period of traffic congestion (say, Wednesday AM peak hour traffic flows) may be a better estimate of expected speeds (and thus fuel usage) than real time conditions of the various rotes being considered. It would seem that the better the algorithm is, the more vehicles would follow it, and the resulting traffic conditions would change even more from what was projected.

Supply studies typically underestimate if not ignore the role of travel demand in the same manner that demand studies typically underestimate if not ignore the role of supply.

From Robin Abcarian's column in the LA Times (23 August 2023):

"In four years, [Me/Now] remade the Supreme Court, botched the pandemic response, alienated allies, dog-whistled racist messages, reversed policies aimed at slowing global climate change, and slashed taxes leading to record deficits. He was impeached twice, encouraged a deadly insurrection when his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election failed, and absconded from the White House with dozens of highly classified documents. Earlier this year, he was found liable for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll by a jury who awarded her $5 million. Now, of course, he faces four different criminal indictments. Yet for 30 percent of Republicans, especially evangelical Christians who have misplaced their moral compasses, [Me/Now] can do no wrong, or at least not enough to matter."

Can there be any hope for a resolution when the expression woke, simply meaning being aware of and attentive to societal facts and issues, is bastardized into some verbal equivalent of "see no evil, hear no evil?"

A colleague's aside during a discussion on AI in education suggested that using AI for editing can make sense since the resulting writing can be improved, an argument similar to that made for using wayfinding devices when traveling. However, the best way to improve one's writing skills is by reading, writing, and getting constructive feedback. Use of an editing AI would essentially diminish one's writing ability in the same manner that using a wayfinding device diminishes if not eliminates one's native ability to negotiate space. Related blog posts include a summary of AI perspective [Can We Chat? (29 January 2023)] as well as several related posts on wayfinding:

• Why Humans Get Lost [5 September 2022]
  "Studies have shown that not only are wayfinding abilities lost to the dependency on external apps, but the brain itself can atrophy and thus reduce the native ability for wayfinding."
• Everything Seems Simpler from a Distance [17 February 2022]
  "Some research has shown, that the use of GPS and apps actually decrease the ability of travelers to perceive and judge distance."
• Means and Ends [1 Jan 2020]
  "And studies have suggested that GPS-based way-finding apps result in spatial skills either never being developed or being lost. Would over reliance on scheduling systems have a similar result?"
~~~

Some news items on the continuing evolution of Remote Work policies:

News Item 1: Sometimes, "the benefits of collective intelligence can be outweighed by the cost of having to coordinate." Social biases, over- or under-confidence of team members, and a lack of face-to-face interaction can impact teamwork, according to Taha Yasseri. Could this be a downside of remote work? Or can remote work remove some of the social biases? You'll need to read this study (and others) to see if you agree [SmartBrief for the Higher Ed Leader (23 August 2023)]

News Item 2: According to The Week (18 August 2023), Zoom is "ordering employees back to the office at least two days a week." President Biden has apparently asked his cabinet to curb remote work for federal employees. A GAO report found that "17 of 24 federal agencies used on average an estimated 25 percent or less of the capacity of their headquarters buildings."

News Item 3: In "Reaching a truce on working from home" in The LA Times (6 August 2023, Don Lee provides some recent summary statistics that show that remote work may well be here to stay. A study by WFH Research reports that 28 percent of work is done at home thus far in 2023 (versus 5% pre-COVID). A study by Leger (for the LA Times in July 2023) reports that 27 percent of fulltime workers reported increased employer lenience on remote work (although about 15% reported less lenience); 11 percent of fulltime employees work exclusively from home while 31 percent are working in a hybrid format (the remainder work on site); and 80 percent of employees expect current rules will still remain in place in 2025 [see also: McNormal (11 February 2022)].

For decades, the first thing in my morning routine has been to make coffee and get the newspaper from the driveway. Recently, I stopped delivery of the printed paper, deciding on digital only due to both the newsprint (despite being recycled at both ends) and cost (significantly less). It took about a week to notice that, while I still push the button on the coffee maker, I often forget to go to the paper's web site. Usually I remember when I check email (I get daily emails from various papers with links to the paper or selected stories) and once I do it's easy to read (and make any desired copies of) selected articles. The impetus for this change was the decision by the LA Times to stop including standings and box scores on their sports page, which was my way of keeping in touch with various sports that I have (often loosely) followed my whole life.

What's the bottom line? I do miss the tactile sensation of holding the newspaper (and I admit that I stopped reading the OC Register more for their dirty newsprint than their editorial policy, but I do follow then digitally). And I prefer the paper copy to do the crossword puzzle (especially on Sunday). But I do worry about changes in the newspaper industry. The loss of local papers is not as significant, but changes in major regional and national papers are. I've always had much more confidence in an established media organization that produces a daily paper featuring a wide range of real journalism than in other news media. But I also value the various media forms that are now available, but only because (I think) I've gained the wisdom to better judge the veracity and relevance of what I'm reading, vis-a-vis other sources. Personally, I don't have to worry about these problems with this blog since practically no one reads it. Is this absence of readership becoming routine?

All controlled-access (e.g., freeway) lanes are essentially managed lanes but the term allows for more varied lane-specific applications (carpool-, toll-, eco-, or other lanes). The question is "who gets to use them?"

1. Carpools (the OG of Managed Lanes):
   The original rationale was to provide an incentive for people to carpool. This was in many cases not a powerful enough incentive. In Southern California, High occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes providing access to 2+ occupant carpools didn't always optimize lane use so access was provided to some categories of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs, with approved stickers displayed). Ah, but something about free-flowing traffic annoys those who either have money and but can't buy access or who see a business model in what has always been public infrastructure. So, a Degradation Rule was proposed, ostensibly to "protect" HOV lanes but really to satisfy the desire for the private sector to "get a piece of the action."

   Alternative: Allow Organized Employee Carpools to get a sticker for use in peak periods, or allow variable occupancy such as 2.5 people per vehicle (technology can almost address this now).

2. Green Vehicles:
   The rationale was to provide an incentive for people to adopt low-emission vehicles. This was anecdotally an incentive, at least in California, where "stickers" were a limited and thus hot commodity. But greater incentives came along in the form of state and federal tax credits and also this little thing called climate changes (25% of new vehicles sold in California in 2022 were EVs).

   Alternative: Brown Vehicles lanes would allow the most polluting vehicles to move at steady speeds to reduce emissions rather than getting non-polluting vehicles moving faster? Or Green Vehicles could use HOT lanes with the toll covering the fact that they do not pay dedicated fuel taxes.

3. Wealthy People:
   Ha, just wanted to see if you were paying attention! But HOT (High Occupancy Toll) lanes are essentially HOV lanes for wealthy people driving alone (or people with a deep pocket, such as an employer, covering the cost). It seems that this option dedicates toll revenues toward retiring construction and operations debt so, once built, it's sort of permanent. Tolls are set to control volume to maintain a promised level of service (e.g., 65 mph) so this necessarily minimizes the volume of other users such as 2+ carpoolers
   (see: On Whom the Toll Falls ).

   Is this a user fee? Not really, since everybody already paid for the infrastructure via taxes (fuel, sales, property, and income) and everybody equitably pays the same in time. HOT lanes, however, are the only lanes that guarantee a performance level and as such will only encourage users, in this case those who can afford to pay, to drive further and more frequently knowing they will always get the same level of service.

   Alternative: HOEHT (High Occupancy Extremely High Toll) lanes to reduce the number of Single Occupant Vehicles (SOV) paying for use but allowing 2+ (instead of 3+) carpoolers and other categories of socially desired traffic to be accommodated, as originally envisioned.

Peter Bohr writes in the Fall issue of Westways about the "Perils of the Connected Car." I have always been opposed to giving up personal autonomy, privacy, and basic tenets of ownership. Why? In part for some innate biology or boomer upbringing but also for the same general reason that I oppose virtually all technologies that exist to separate you from your money on a monthly subscription basis. When there is no ownership, then there is no society. Nothing is valued because nothing is yours.

Bohr talks about existing services where automobile manufactures sell (or lease) you a vehicle, where you are paying for the vehicle and all of its component parts, and then expect you to shell out monthly fees to be able to use some of these parts. I first experienced this in 2009 when I bought a car equipped with Sirius XM and a free short-term subscription followed by a monthly fee. I already paid for the radio, but could not use the satellite service, which didn't bother me much (although I no longer subscribe, I did for many years). But Bohr describes a BMW program where you buy a vehicle with seat heaters but you must pay monthly to use them. Shut the f-rontdoor! You own the heaters, and you'll pay for the energy to operate them, and for any maintenance required, but you can't use them with a subscription! There were several other examples, and not all for luxury vehicles. Also, similar to Sirius XM, GM has sold OnStar service to customers for a long time but this too provides an actual service, not just a permission to warm your butt on demand.

Bohr states that motorists (you can tell this is an Auto Club publication because I know of no other entity that still calls drivers motorists) "are less enamored with software subscriptions than automakers." Ya think? A 2022 survey said that "75 percent of respondents were unwilling to pay ongoing fees for most of these kinds of items on their next vehicle."

There are some other elements of connected vehicles that would not be embraced by consumers but might make sense including remote deactivation if car payments are not made on time (or even autonomous repo). Insurance rates could be set by monitoring the driver and the vehicle which might make sense from a safety perspective but the tradeoff with absolute loss of privacy remains unacceptable in my book (at least any user should have to opt-in to such a service). And don't get me started on VMT taxes.

Bohr ends with a warning to traditional disconnected motorists facing the "brave new automotive world." I hate it when people misuse this line from The Tempest which Miranda spoke when first discovering the wonder of a world with men in it. But here we're talking not about a dream but a nightmare.

An NYU C2Smart flyer on a talk by UCI alum and UTEP Professor Kelvin Cheu defines a digital twin:

"A digital twin (DT) is a realistic digital model of a physical system or process, with
sensors that measure real-world parameters and a simulation engine that replicates the
behavior of the system or process. Realistic digital geographical models of real-world
locations provide baseline information for digital twin applications."

First and foremost, a digital twin is a model. A model is an abstraction and as such it is not truly a twin. There are elements of all complex real-world systems that cannot be part of any model. For example, simulations must represent the underlying behavior stochastically and thus cannot hope to accurately reflect real-world behavior. The real-world system itself is stochastic, thus the model is effectively twice removed in its stochasticity. This suggests a digital twin "incompleteness theorem" (with apologies to Godel) that states:

"No consistent system of models, algorithms, and data inputs is capable of
replicating the complete behavior of any suitably complex real-world system."

In summary, I am not suggesting that we need a complete cloning of a real system. In fact, any real system and its clone would immediately begin to diverge, so it would not remain valid for long. The value of any model is to simplify the real world for the purposes of quick responses or long-term projections (odd that it's usually these extremes). I am also not criticizing attempts to create better model systems (assuming that there is a rationale to do so); rather, I am suggesting not naming such a system a "twin" when it's just a modeling approximation, even if one with greater fidelity.

... when presumptions are overstated but edgy enough to provoke a reaction.

Stuart Miller's LA Times review (13 August 2023) of "The Injustice of Place" by Kathryn J. Edin, H. Luke Shaefer, and Timothy J. Nelson starts by quoting Bono from U2's "Crumbs from Your Table." I'm not saying that a multi-millionaire cannot have something wise and ethical to say about those less fortunate. Indeed, that's a hallmark of capitalism. And I'm not saying that capitalism is the best option. But like democracy, it's likely better than other options, especially when a balance of powers exists between and within the public and private sectors.

The authors premise is that domestic inequity is geographically correlated if not defined. There is an emphasis on race but while racial issues are problematic it seems that it is not race but wealth that is the geographical determinant. Miller's review does emphasize that "a never ending cycle of extraction and exploitation" may well be the root of inequity and places the problem on the shoulders of "unregulated capitalism." Again, this is about wealth. Where "government just turned a blind eye" is indicative of undue influence of capitalism on government and suggests that the pairing of wealth and power can perpetuate imbalance in all matters.

The book appears to address relevant issues and potential redresses, but it suggests that problems defined geographically (but also historically) suggests geographical solutions. Sort of "it takes a village" approach, which apparently has not worked, and likely won't at the geographical scale at which these problems exist. As long as all power structures -- local, regional, state, and national -- are driven by wealth and power, not much is likely to change. There always will be geographical inequities and to level the geographical playing fields will require a much broader perspective that seeks some level of balance. Two relevant quotes from Winston Churchill:

"The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings.
The inherent virtue of Socialism is the equal sharing of miseries."

"Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government
except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."

In 1626, Peter (Me/Then?) Minuit tried to purchase Manhattan Island from the Manhattes for some beads and shells worth about twenty-four dollars. He thought rather highly of himself but the Manhattes felt the same since the concept of land ownership was foreign to them. There likely were just allowing the Dutch occasional use of some of the land. When the Dutch over-stayed their welcome, the Manhattes arrows pointed out the error of their ways. A quarter of a millennium later, the topography of New York City remained more like what Peter Minuit saw than today's uber-urban development.

"The time will come when New York will be built up, when all the grading and filling will be done,
and when the picturesquely varied rocky formations of the Island will have been converted into
formations for rows of monotonous straight streets, and piles of erect buildings."

In a TED talk, Ethan Hawk says "Give yourself permission to be creative." He essentially said "express yourself, by knowing yourself, by following your passion" and "there is no path ... till you walk it." He concluded with "you have to be willing to play the fool." While I've always "read something different, listened to different music, and talked to different people," about ten years ago I doubled down on a path I had started. You're reading the result. I now need to double down again. Thanks to KO for the link!

It's no longer about ideology when you compare left and right; rather, both are paths to power. The right, more so than the left, has virtually abandoned ideology since the hallmarks of conservativism no longer motivate the party (nor a majority of voters). Rather than adapt their ideology, the right has embraced populism, following the 2016 reactionary success of its ersatz leader Me/Now. The left has doubled down by adopting an even more progressive "chicken in every pot" approach. While such factions have always existed, it seems the biggest change is the diminishing stature of moderate viewpoints (despite a growing proportion of independent voters). I'm even more convinced that the only solution is to weaken the two political parties, each which will follow any path to maintain power. And the best way to achieve this is term limits.

Today's two page OpEd spread in the LA Times (11 August 2023) provided an appropriate mix of this left versus right divide. First, on the physical left side of the page was an editorial calling for eliminating the state building code requirement that apartment buildings taller than three stories have two stairways. The rationale for this requirement should be obvious, and even the editorial says that eliminating stairs will not solve the housing crisis. This "damn the torpedoes" approach to policy and planning does not bode well for public safety. Just maybe it's time to consider more conservative policies in our progressive state government? Not so fast...

On the physical right side of the editorial page are articles about private equity firms which, well, think about Richard Gere's role in Pretty Woman and apply it to "Toys'R'Us" and "Simon & Schuster." This is just making money via a similar "damn the torpedoes" approach. Even LZ Granderson's OpEd (on the right side of the left page) deals with changes in college football, changes that are pushing the sport toward the business of making money. Even the column on the far right of the right page is indicative of our population's evolution. The column is about pickle ball. Physical activity is great, and the growing participation in this sport is good, but I can't think of any activity that has so quickly morphed into a way to make money, with sponsored tournaments, fashion lines, and pickle ball clubs. Based on this column, pickle ball therapy can't be too far off.

I'm enjoying my last few days of the print edition of the LA Times. Starting next week, it will be the digital edition only. While the digital edition (for now) appears in the same format as the print edition, I doubt that I would have observed the juxtaposition of viewpoints that was possible while holding the two page spread of the print edition in my hands. Everything I saw today was wrong, and wrong in several ways. So what will be left next week? For once, I hope I'm right.

"There are many who lust for the simple answers of doctrine or decree.
They are on the left and right. They are terrorists of the mind." (A. Bartlett Giamatti)

If your goal is to control immigration, then you should reduce the desire to migrate not solely by increasing the costs of migration but by also addressing problems that are providing the reasons for immigrating. The same applies to addressing crime. You need to not solely increase the costs of criminal behavior but also address the problems that lead to criminal activity.

These problems and responses resulted after my reading an email from Tomas Pueyo on "How to Make Cities Safe." Like a game of Would You Rather, Pueyo starts by asking the question "In which neighborhood pictured would you rather live?" Such a question could be addressed to any individual but seems to be a meaningless question when posed en masse. Neighborhoods are composite goods, not simple choices. The choice depends on the choice maker and the context of the choice. Oddly, Pueyo provides a range of potential opinions on the choice, favoring one or the other alternatives, but somehow doesn't immediately realize that there is no answer because the question posed is not valid. Most important is that there are not just two choices. Pueyo does offer to explore the various dimensions that are implied by neighborhood choices, and crime was one of these factors on what makes a neighborhood attractive. He begins by writing that "we don't yet understand the underlying principles of good streets, so we can't replicate them." Pueyo explores principles and these, taken as a whole, resonate with my claim that the complexity of the choice set is too great to allow for carbon copies of successes and avoiding failures.

SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (2 August 2023) reported that two University of Arizona entrepreneurs are developing a car-free neighborhood in Tempe. UA alum in ASU's backyard? Why not in Tucson? The full and very well reported story by Ira Boudway, was in Bloomberg News (31 July 2023).

There have always been walkable neighborhoods, such as core areas of most major cities, but car-free is not the same as walkable. The Tempe development by Culdesac, located adjacent to a station for the Phoenix light rail line, is a 17 acre parcel on Apache Boulevard about 2 miles from the Arizona State University campus. It's part of a rapidly re-developing area where many of the parcels along Apache have been turned into residential apartments, although not-car-free. Deemed Culdesac Tempe, the development was approved for no (as in zero) residential parking (only guest parking) and with a parking management plan in the Culdesac development agreement where residents must:

"disclose and register any car they own, control, or purchase,' as a condition of their lease, and cannot park on surrounding streets within a block in any direction - an area that Culdesac agreed to help monitor."

But residents also get a free monthly transit pass with unlimited rides on light rail and buses in the region; free flat-tire fixes and discounts at a bike shop (soon to be on site); discounts on Lyft cars, Bird scooters, and the Lugg on-demand hauling service; and access to an on-site fleet of rentable EVs. How long these benefits will last is not stated.

Why Cul-de-sac? The company and the development were named in honor of a founder's "nostalgia for a cul-de-sac near his childhood home, where kids would play in the street unbothered by traffic." A cul-de-sac of course is a street accessible on one end only (as such, the term is also used to mean a path leading nowhere). All this time I though cul-de-sacs were the poster child of what NOT TO DO for walkability. Networks with cul-de-sacs are claimed as reducing accessibility (bit I';ll state that the many cul-de-sacs in Irvine CA, including in faculty housing on the UCI campus, while closed at one end are only closed to motor vehicles and provide access at both ends for bikes and pedestrians. While this still reduces overall accessibility, it does so primarily for automobiles. But, as one of the developers recalls, cul-de-sacs also provide a streetscape void of speeding and cut-through traffic.

The development was first approved prior to the pandemic arriving, and apartment values have fallen by 30 percent in the region since late 2021, and interest rates have risen. Regarding parking, Culdesac will be built in phases and thus can adjust parking plans as needed. Tempe and Phoenix are poster children for auto-dominated living so, if a car-free development works here, then it probably can work most anywhere.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"July 3 of this third year of the third decade of the third millennium was, unofficially,
the hottest day in the recorded history of the world. Then July 4 beat it."

"Failing to deploy large-scale renewable energy does not save desert species from extinction.
Rather, they are out of the habitat destruction pot into the climate change fire."

"71% of California is owned by federal, state and local governments ... 20% is farmland ...
7% has already been developed ... [leaving] roughly 2% available for new projects."

There were three very different reasons why I read Peter Mehlman's OpEd in the LA Times (29 July 2023): the three primary words in the title, "A dark drive of the soul;" the odd juxtaposition of murder and traffic in the subhead; and the thought that I may have met Mehlman nearly 50 years ago. Together, that was sufficient rationale to start reading. My first thought was that this sounded like an episode from Seinfeld (I never watched more than a few of those episodes but I seem to recall more bits than I could have possible seen). I make the weak assumption that this is a show pitch from Mehlman, the mixing of a round of golf and a call from a friend about the murder of a mutual acquaintance does start to sound more like a Seinfeld episode. As revealed a few paragraphs later, Mehlman wrote for Seinfeld and one of his favorite scenes was when George, in typical Seinfeld fashion, did something stupid that lead to the death of his fiancee, feigned grief, and then suggested "let's get coffee." I think that's what this OpEd is all about (or, more deeply, the underlying neuroses in each case). Life is maybe just a detached walk through a series of life events involving other people. So why did I keep on reading?

I guess I'm just on a detached walk through life events involving other people, because what maintained my interest was the network narrative of Mehlman's 40 minute drive home. Mehlman's narrative is similar to SNL's "The Californians" with nearly a dozen references to streets or traffic elements ("I said along the 101, Stuart!") each time his mind returns to contemplating his friend's murder (I can't help thinking that the murder could have been any life event experienced by his friend and a similar "drive home" may have resulted). Near the end of his drive home, he realizes that "this is all about hitting home." Home, as in his soul, not his place of residence, although both are looming closer.

I'm not sure at what level to take Mehlman's OpEd. He's a comedic writer and a "hobbyist" comedian, so is this heartless schtick or heartfelt soul? It is surreal, but then life often is. Life's landmarks are major events in time and space that are used by many people to measure where they are in life, rather than metrics such as distance and elapsed time, which are hard for most humans to comprehend. I doubt Mehlman will remember this unfortunate event by the dozen or so streets, turns, and red zones on his drive home, but he will remember he was playing golf when he heard the news and will probably remember his imagined thoughts about his friend's son being born, when he finally arrived home.

George Packer makes "The Moral Case Against Euphemism" in The Atlantic (April 2023) based on the simple realization that "banning words won't make the world more just." Quite the opposite.

The Sierra Club's Equity Language Guide discourages using the words stand, American, blind, and crazy. The rationales as to why are just too tortured to entertain herein. The Guide also rejects expressions such as the disabled in favor of persons living with disabilities and encourages "people-first language," which goes without saying. Or should go without saying. Literally (of course they're people so there is no need to label them as such). I frankly never considered any difference between handicapped and disabled but maybe a reasonable resolution would be to not refer to a person with any adjectives whatsoever. A problem with this is that many if not most people with a categorized characteristic that leads to this euphemism discussion wants some sort of equity reparation that requires the characteristic to be explicitly recognized.

Packer says that the Sierra Club Guide seeks to "cleanse language of any trace of privilege, hierarchy, bias, or exclusion." He also reports that such "equity-language guides are proliferating among some of the country's leading institutions." For example, UCI's Office of Information Technology posted an Inclusive IT Language Guide, which starts simply and correctly with "Favor gender-neutral terms whenever possible." I've always embraced this and have disliked gendered nouns ever since high school French class. I abhor using such expressions as "him or her" and began writing to avoid all pronoun references (and only recently changed when the words "them" and "they" became acceptable for use in the singular). But the Guide got worse quickly. Use "y'all" instead of "guys?" I've always used "guys" as a gender-neutral concept (and isn't y'all a slur with respect to southerners?). Many terms have the root "man" and I always took this as a gender-neutral reference to mankind, as in human beings (huMAN?) but I admit that our male-dominated history has always emphasized man versus woman (woMAN) difference. But there are many words here that would take decades if not longer to change. And should they?

Then we get into sheer stupidity: use "functional testing" rather than "black box." First, outside of OIT, these are not the same. Second, black is in reference to physics, not race. A "black object" reflects no light, thus, a "black box" is something with insufficient insight of its inner workings. Should we stop using any reference to color? Does color really matter? Would AI systems care about any of this? And use "feed two birds with one scone" instead of "kill two birds with one stone?" Shut the f-rontdoor!

Of course, the fundamental problem is not the use of words that some people take as derogatory (and in many albeit fewer occurrences were meant as derogatory). Rather it's the bending of language, sometimes multiple times, to allow the advantages of a characteristic without any of the negative connotations. Will there ever be an end game? Or will the people behind this political correctness remain "vision challenged people who want the benefits of being different but not the costs?"

The anti-freeway slogan "You can't build your way out of congestion" will soon be tested on the 405 HOT lanes*. Due to pricing and design capacity, HOT lanes essentially guarantee free flow speeds and this means that HOT lanes essentially guarantee increased Vehicle Miles Traveled. For those with an infinite capacity to pay, there is essentially infinite personal capacity to drive at free flow speeds for whatever distance these lanes cover. These drivers will always have an uncongested spot in the HOT lanes.

OCTA has announced its toll policy for the soon to open HOT lanes on the OC's 405 freeway. The article claims that travel times will be improved for all drivers (both HOT and General Purpose lanes) and, based on equilibrium travel behavior, all drivers traveling between origins and destinations that use this corridor should also see improved travel times. The level of improvement in the General Purpose lanes, and how long it is expected to last, was not provided.

Further Reading: Selected links to my running commentary for over a decade on the 405 HOT Lanes:

• 15 Miles on a Dead Man's Chest (1 March 2023)
  "Of course, the trick of the tale is that we'll never know."
• A Degrading Elegy (22 October 2022)
  "I come here not to bury HOV lanes; I come here to praise them."
• The Price of Entry (18 September 2022)
  "The historical development of cities has evolved to our current pattern of lower density development and higher density automobility...
• Humming a Different Tune (5 August 2017)
  "The forecast for Orange County is HOT on the 405, and that T stands for toll. "Toll with a capital T and that rhymes with P and that (no longer) stands for (car)Pool!"
• Let's Make a Deal (14 Sept 2016)
  "I have a program to give high quality cars to selected drivers in Orange County."
• 'Twas Brillig (20 November 2015)
  "In a somewhat Carrollian tale, Orange County's high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes on the 405 are flowing successfully, as designed, yet simultaneously deemed degraded by their success..."
• The Politics of Occupancy (5 Dec 2013)
  "The Orange County Transportation Authority, having previously approved adding a single general purpose (GP) lane in each direction on the 405 from SR-73 to I-605, is now reconsidering their choice..."

While searching my blog for an old post, I found The Insatiable Desire of Having [21 November 2022] which argued that greed rather than racism was America's original sin. For greed to succeed for a few "haves" requires the sloth of a much larger number of "have nots," and by sloth I mean the implicit acceptance of greed by others (see also Greed and Sloth).

If finally dawned on me why so many Americans still support Me/Now despite his utter incompetence, absolute amorality, and singular focus on becoming president to avoid answering to all of his crimes. These Americans are unhappy and want to share their misery with everyone else, but they are too lazy to do so. Then Me/Now returns promising to continue his four plus year track record of, well, f-ing with everyone who won't kiss his ass. So millions of Americans are as happy as pigs in shit that Me/Now is making waves in the cesspool for them.

Forget The Candidate as a new The Apprentice reality TV. How about "The Real President of Mar-a-Lago" where Me/Now and his friends and family compete with zany tricks and tweets, all within the safe confines of wonderfully wacky Florida?

It is often a fine line but curating can be defined as "the act of selecting and organizing items for presentation" while creating can be defined as "the act of bringing something new into existence." At first glance, curating may have more in common with discovery, if one focuses on the existing items being curated, but there is a synthesis of knowledge than is creative, as in a new way of looking at something. Curation re-envisions something old while creation is finding something new.

Student papers can be a bit of both. The choice of a topic, approach, references, and other elements can each contain a kernel of creativity but essentially the paper is an act of curation. A research paper, on the other hand, aims toward creation (or discovery) by bringing some knowledge into existence, although parts of such papers are acts of curation. Curating can be creative, when the manner of display is new, providing new perspectives on an existing subject. For student papers, assessment lies in not only the curation but in the potential creativity of that curation.

In an environment, political or other, where extreme viewpoints appear intentionally positioned against similarly extreme viewpoints on the other side, it might seem that a a measure of central tendency, one that may foster compromise to address at least some of the problems at hand (without worsening others), might be a welcome development. I worry, however, that the new political movement "No Labels" is simply more of the same, being somehow "extreme in the middle."

No Label's "Common Sense" manifesto claims to provide "A clear blueprint for where America's commonsense majority wants this country to go" but Michael Hiltzik's assessment in the LA Times (23 July 2023) is that the document is "an agglomeration of misinformation, platitudes and premasticated nostrums." This sounds just like all the stuff we hear from the regular players (and they are indeed players, whether as politicians or as political parties) who claim that they are the only players representing what the majority of Americans want. I'll play that game, too, and tell you what the majority of Americans want. They want the politician players to stop spouting all the trash talk about every opposing viewpoint and simply pick an issue, give their position, and move on.

Hiltzik summarizes by stating that a "new" middle ground is not really needed since the country is not as often claimed polarized on key issues: "Large majorities favor abortion rights, gun control, making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, and protecting voting rights." What's to be gained? As with war, which in many ways these political battles are, absolutely nothing.

There are many things in this world about which to complain; parking is not one of them.

One may not expect to find commentary on such a simultaneously trivial and academic topic such as parking in the Arts section of a newspaper but, in the LA Times's Calendar section for 7 July 2023, there it was. The entire page above the fold was a vintage photo of a parking nightmare in downtown LA in 1955. (Or was this a still from a Tinseltown feature from the same year, perhaps a lost Hitchcock reel?) You just don't see half a page given to a photo of something so overdramatic and unnewsworthy, unless of course it's for art's sake. And this was a book review of sorts in the Calendar section.

But the headline (size 36 font in all caps) was "HIGH PRICE OF PARKING" which reviewer Carolina A. Miranda drew from the Donald Shoup book "The High Cost of Free Parking" in her review of a book by Henry Grabar entitled "Paved Paradise: How Parking Explains the World." The expression "paved paradise," of course, is taken from Joni Mitchell's "Big Yellow Taxi," the song's title referring to the mode of travel taken by her departing "old man" (and not the small area consumed by that vehicle when it's parked). By the way, I have not yet read Grabar's book but, if I do, it will be the sub-title and not the Joni-ism that provides the impetus, because I really can't think of something as mundane as parking, a trivial part of automobility, as something that can explain the world. But as click bait, well, primo!

By the way, an analysis of "excess" parking in U.S. cities suggests to a trained eye that these lots are not paving over any erstwhile paradises, but to each his own (see A Day in the Parking Lot with George (21 April 2023)).

Grabar referred to Shoup as the "parking rock star." Don Shoup has an excellent reputation earned well before his 2005 book was published, a book with an admittedly excellent title but which arrived two years after "The High Cost of Low Living" from the 2003 Allman Brothers album "Hittin' the Note" (neither did they first use that expression). I think Grabar has it seriously wrong since a rock star is usually looking to inspire or promote the art, not fundamentally end it. Would a Luddite have been considered a "technology rock star?" Maybe Shoup should be considered the parking iconoclast?

Let's not tie this too closely with the arts, at least not the art of rock music. Even the punk movement was not about ending rock music, or its fundamental elements. But one has to love the LA Times' Russ Mitchell who described Grabar's book as:

"a romp, packed with tales of anger, violence, theft, lust, greed,
political chicanery, and transportation policy gone wrong."

Considering the link between parking and housing, Miranda attributes the high cost of housing in part to parking requirements but she ignores the influence of floorspace, various design features, land costs (and associated location amenities such as views and distance to the coast), and general market forces. A perspective on this is available: see The Physics of Wasted Space [16 August 2017]. The demand for "luxury" housing is linked to the demand for "luxury" cars and all those location amenities. In general styles come and go (sometimes they just go). This applies to housing, cars, media, and technology. Last, while 55-65 percent of American households own their house, well over 92 percent own their own car.

A related post: Parking (18 Feb 2023)

Most people know their objective (chronological) age but many also have a subjective sense of how old they feel. While objective age is just a measure of time, subjective age depends on a range of factors, many that relate to nature and nurture.

In "The Age in Your Head," Jennifer Senior (The Atlantic April 2023) comments that people don't generally think that they are shorter or taller than they are, but this is not exactly true. People will round any measurable quantity to a value that better flatters their ego (weight may be a more appropriate example than height). There is of course a limit to anyone's adjusted claim, in part because these spatial dimensions are indeed easier for any beholder to assess. So I only somewhat disagree with Senior regarding "locating ourselves in space" but I more strongly disagree with her argument regarding locating ourselves in time.

People "age" at different rates (due to nature and nurture) and these rates are not continuous (they are, barring plastic surgery, typically monotonic). People used to tell me I looked 15 years younger than I objectively was (and I felt 15 or so younger), then it became 10 years younger, and not it's about five. Senior writes:

"the gulf between how old we are and how old we believe ourselves to be can often be
measured in light-years -- or at least a goodly number of old-fashioned Earth ones."

Senior discusses a study that examined this "felt age" phenomena but what I found most interesting was one particular age. A friend of Senior's chose an age that corresponds to the time when essentially his major life status questions had been resolved. For me, when asked, I've used 33 years ever since I began to reduce my age by a year once I reached 40 but for some unknown reason I stopped at 33. However, I did not realize until reading this article that I was also 33 when I started teaching at UCI, a point when my major life status questions had been resolved. Senior's friend adds that Medieval Christian theologians thought that people in heaven were 33, partly because this was the age when Jesus was crucified. I think it more likely that this was because the average person in the middle ages lived to be about 33.

Basically, people are fully aware of their objective and their subjective ages and there is no problem locating one's self in time. This quibble aside, Senior's article is quite interesting and well worth the few minutes needed to read it, particularly the discussion on how objective and subjective assessments vary over stage in the life cycle (for example, adolescence), socio-economic status, and cultural milieu. The part regarding older people not being willing "to trade their hard-earned wisdom -- or humility, or self-acceptance ... for some earlier moment resonates since I would take the psychological subjectivity of a younger "feeling" but only if I could keep what I've gained by expending all those years.

A continuation of my prior post Something There Is That Doesn't Love a ...

I don't know who first used the expression soul crushing in reference to freeways. I found Alex Balashov in Quartz (10 June 2016) offering a dozen reasons "Why even driving through suburbia is soul crushing." His comments should be taken with a grain of salt (about the best thing that Balashov, a European expat, could say about suburbia is that "it sucks"). Elon Musk in The Verge (27 January 2017) argues that being stuck in traffic is "soul destroying" perhaps only to offer his self-serving solution (Musk owns The Boring Company). In cities, there are few surface or elevated options for addressing dense traffic so Musk offers a tunnel alternative:

"Without tunnels, we will all be in traffic hell forever. I really do think tunnels are the key to solving urban gridlock. Being stuck in traffic is soul-destroying. Self-driving cars will actually make it worse by making vehicle travel more affordable."

Lisa Beebe in LA Magazine (17 April 2017) asks "Can California Turn Its Soul-Crushing Traffic Into Renewable Energy?" Because, damn, that would be amazing. Literally. In The Atlantic, Amy Wilentz (15 November 2018) waxes elegiacally that "Freeways Are Always Soul Crushing. Now They're on Fire." Technically, the freeways were not on fire, but in her defense, it was sort of close:

The New York Times (15 August 2019) mixed modes with "you wedge your body into an obscenely packed subway or inch your car along a planet-killing freeway." Reddit (2020) discussed the suburban commute as being soul crushing. And at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Nicholas Goldberg asked (LA Times, 27 April 2020) "what it would take to keep L.A. traffic from returning to soul-crushing levels." Soon after (6 August 2020), the LA Times' Sewell Chan wrote "I bought my first car this week. It smelled like defeat" (maybe it was a used car). And recently, Mary McNamara in the LA Times found that we're "Still in a Jam" (20 February 2023) as we've returned to pre-pandemic traffic.

What I find to be soul crushing is humans facing a choice and taking the option that is soul crushing. Those who have used this term are in good company. Many are successful writers whom I do not doubt find their commutes to be so bad that the term soul crushing appears appropriate. Writers have regularly considered freeways in California from a variety of perspectives. In "Los Angeles: The Architecture of Four Ecologies," Reyner Banham (1971) wrote:

"The freeway is not a limbo of existential angst, but the place where
they spend the two calmest and most rewarding hours of their daily lives."

"The freeway experience ... is the only secular communion Los Angeles has.
Mere driving on the freeway is in no way the same as participating in it."

"People are afraid to merge on freeways in Los Angeles."

"Whatever image you have in your mind of LA, the exact opposite of it exists too."

Robert Frost's Mending Wall is about borders. Walls are built and maintained but underlying the wall itself is how they shape human interactions. Freeways are both borders that inhibit and arterials that enable interaction. But there is a similarity in that the two neighbors mending wall in Frost's poem are on opposite sides of not only the wall but of the very policy that created the wall in the first place. The speaker questions the need for a wall in the particular case in point:

"He is all pine and I am apple orchard.
My apple trees will never get across
And eat the cones under his pines, I tell him."

"He will not go behind his father's saying,
And he likes having thought of it so well
He says again, 'Good fences make good neighbors.'"

Transportation networks have an inordinate permanence. The historical importance and continued existence of urban networks are not alone the critical permanence; rather, the space consumed by the network defines the space for all other infrastructure. The buildings occupying blocks formed by urban networks have a permanence comparable to human life times but nevertheless come and go over time, but the urban portrait of ground and background remains. It's not only the ground space defined by the network links but also the background space beneath them, including networks of transit systems, water and waste systems, and many other public utilities and technologies. The arbitrary nature of the initial plans and designs of transportation networks belies their long term role in defining a city. Throughout history, transportation technology has been the primary factor in determining the location and layout of most cities but, given the permanence that emerges, it may be the network and city infrastructure that will determine which transportation technologies will move us into the future. In virtually all developed cities, infrastructure may now drive technology.

So how can networks evolve to improve cities? Networks fully integrated with the space they define, suggesting hierarchical schemes, are often present in contemporary city designs. The potential loosening of the dichotomy of public roadways and private blocks of land use, is where real public private partnerships might have value to cities. While existing roadway networks cannot be easily expanded either horizontally or beneath, they can be redefined. The dominance of motorized transport, and the automobile in particular, has led to network geometry, control, and policies that hold the key to how transport technologies can be defined. In turn, this can redefine cities. In addition to system connectivity on the physical level, the operational level must approach seamless transitions across multiple modal technologies and institutional entities.

On the physical level, an evolution is possible for both the land use and network patterns. With office space vacancy around thirty percent in most major cities, the re-use of office space for residential activity can be paired with network re-design that reflects the reduction in commuting traffic. Curb lanes, conventionally reserved for parking, can be converted to pick-up and drop-off lanes for ride hailing, transit, and goods movement. Increasing the width of sidewalks can accommodate integrated micro-mobility technologies and redefined public spaces for outdoor activities. Elevated lanes for pedestrians, micro-mobility, and alfresco activity can be designed so as not to overshadow widened conventional sidewalks below.

On the operational level, reduced conventional traffic volumes can allow for a one-way vehicle grid which would replace current transport patterns and improved flow of all modes. A fare card that can be re-loaded, function like a debit card, or used as a credit card would work on all modal technologies. Night only freight movements, used in European cities with high daytime pedestrian volumes, can reduce conventional traffic significantly.

This comments reflect a somewhat overly optimistic view of travel and activity patterns that are literally set in concrete, but that is the nature of re-imagining the status quo. For example, the press associated with 15-minute cities typically ignores how many of these 15-minute cells will exist and whether they would all be homogeneous (which runs counter to conventional agglomerative forces that leverage intellectual progress, choice of activities, access to parks, sightlines, and unique locations. Cities are the definition of a massing of opportunity.

Unfortunately, many engineers and planners cannot see the forest for the trees. This is not as simple as a focus on the trees of transport networks (or a micro-focus on automobiles), or people, or even their activities. It may best be viewed as a focus on land as defining the forest of activities. The daily pattern of activity defined by a city's population is an emergent behavior of the land use and transport pattern. Accessibility, with the death of distance and the growth of virtual travel, leads to a VirtuoCity, which might be modeled as a finite element system. Between the current flow of ideas and words and the future flows of people and goods, is a real need for formal analyses and evaluations of the possibilities.

"Can an Amazon envelope help us map out what a decolonized future could look like? asked Clarissa Tossin in The LA Times (17 May 2023):

"My work -- it's always about deconstructing ideas of place or questioning how we define a place. Mapping, which is present throughout my work, is one way of doing that. A map is a representation of a place, and, as any form of representation, it's very biased in what you decide to include."

"Amazon packaging -- the ubiquitous remains of consumer society -- stands for extractive cycles of production and consumption, which ultimately impact our environment."

"A map is a representation of a place," says Tossin. In my graduate networks classes I similarly emphasize that all models are abstractions. In travel forecasting, it's not only models that are abstractions, but the various data representations that feed these models, including the Transportation and Activity Systems. The Transportation System is represented by one or more networks, and each network element is an abstraction of some real world equivalent, where some but not all real elements are reflected. The same applies to the Activity System where spatial areas become point representations of all activity within that area. These data structures are models of the real world, as are the mathematical models that utilize these structures to represent the ultimate objective: the abstract depiction of actual human travel.

Maps are conventionally thought of as abstractions of what actually existed, as in some prior time period, while models tend to be future oriented, designed to reflect future "What If?" scenarios. Models, however, are first developed and tested relative to their ability to reflect observed flows in the real world. So how does Tossin's argument that, as representations, maps are biased (very biased, says Tossin), relate to transportation models? The mapmaker often (but not always) seeks an artistic representation, and many old maps are valued as a work of art more than a depiction of what used to be. As a work of art, a map reflects the artist/mapmaker's bias. But a greater bias is introduced by the map's intended use. What is included, both observed and conjecture, and what is not included, as well as elements of scale, all impact the value of a map for its intended purpose. All of this applies to models as well.

To what degree Tossin's maps, with the objective of deconstructing ideas of place, are biased toward her own artistic and analytical objectives, are probably not unlike biases in the models used by travel forecasters, which are more focused on the idea of connections between places. Does Tossin seek meta-maps that chart the bias in ideas that lead to the original maps in the first place?

D.F. Jones wrote his first science fiction novel Colossus about a super computer built to control the American nuclear weapon arsenal. The eponymous computer determines that the Russians have a similar system and requests direct communications. AI was not yet a term in common use but the two systems learn from each other and control mankind via control of the defense missile system which can only target the enemy. The combined system appears to achieve the objective of preventing nuclear war (sort of).

Jason Crawford asks (5 July 2023) "Will AI inevitably seek power?" and writes "The idea that an AI will seek self-preservation, self-improvement, resources, and power, no matter what its ultimate goal is, became known as 'instrumental convergence.'" I'm not aware of any discussion on AI systems linking to other AI systems but Colossus is a case in point, albeit a fictional one, where providing certain "privileges" to an intelligent system eventually gives it all the power it needs. And the book was written 56 years ago.

Does any organization ever wish to reach the point of no return? Is this the point where you find yourself shit out of luck or the point where you've committed others' resources hoping that, despite lingering doubts, there will be no turning back. Shades of Robert Moses, who at least mythically defined this latter point as getting construction stakes in the ground. As reported in SmartBrief (7 July 2023), The White House announced that the Hudson River tunnel project will receive nearly $6.9 billion for engineering on the $16.1 billion rail tunnel linking New York and New Jersey. Gateway Development Commission CEO Kris Kolluri said:

"Our entire objective with this project is to plan slow, act fast and then get this project to a point of no return, and I believe today is a significant step to getting this project to a point of no return."

West Virginia University's bachelor of fine arts in puppetry is a "near-unique program" (ya think?) "that houses a small cohort of undergraduates who relish the chance to spend school time honing their niche craft" And isn't that what college is all about? The program is in danger of being eliminated due to budget cuts since there are only a handful of students enrolled. In The Chronicle of Higher Education, Emma Pettit (6 July 2023) posits that "universities are supposed to be places where esoteric disciplines persist" (I personally don't consider puppetry a college-level esoteric discipline. I'm not saying that puppetry isn't important. But just like plumbing, it should not be a college major.

The chorus from Jimi Westbrook's Rich Man nicely sums up my perspective on life:

Yeah, in my soul, one thing I know
I ain't lookin' for a pot of gold
That ain't what this life means to me
I keep my head up high, feet on the ground
Love the ones I'm livin' 'round
Life is just that simple to me
Yeah, I'm a rich man

I find myself in rare agreement with George Skelton (Capitol Journal, LA Times, 26 June 2023) on how California has become a fundamentally different place over the past 70 or so years, at least according to our Governor and his staff. In the 1970s, an unfettered land development process began to reflect a growing awareness of environmental degradation. Each process originally reflected a similar "rigidity and ideological purity," however, our current Governor now assigns this limitation to only the latter (and oddly added an apparent reversal of the eco-view that "you can't be serious about climate and the environment without reforming permitting." Skelton and I agree that the Governor is trying to make it "easier to build transportation, clean energy, and water projects by cutting corners on environmental review." This is not a good idea, nor is it a good idea for the executive branch to be trying to make state policy.

According to George Skelton, California's population has doubled since 1967 and currently:

"71% of California is owned by federal, state and local governments ... 20% is farmland ...
7% has already been developed ... [leaving] roughly 2% available for new projects."

Note: NRDC's Doug Obegi is quoted as saying "We've built power plants in disadvantaged communities. You don't see then in wealthy communities." Given the prime beachfront locations of power plants in Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Redondo Beach, and El Segundo perhaps the plants were placed there for other reasons?

An installment in my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation.

• For a old technology view, see Can Old Tech Become New Tech?
• For a new technology view, see Flying Monkeys, Flying Squirrels, and ... Flying Cars?
• For some technology trends, see Media or Message
• For a view of Urban Air Mobility, see Flying Squirrels
• For some definitions of what's what, see Flying Monkeys

An adventure down a relatively minor but meaningful rabbit hole started with an innocent glance at a photo in today's LA Times (4 July 2023) of the San Francisco Symphony's performance of Busoni's 75-minute Piano Concerto. What was the draw? Initially, it was my sense that the grand piano looked a bit larger than expected, and the fact that its lid seemed to block the audience view of not only the center of the orchestra but also of conductor Esa-Pekka Salonen. Perhaps this was nothing out of the ordinary and reflects my limited knowledge of such performances, but it did cause me to peer into the rabbit hole. When the caption referred to pianist Igor Levit as pushing "the boundaries of what seems possible for humans" I then tumbled into the rabbit hole. My love of musical complexity, whether improvisational aspects of the blues, shifting time signatures of progressive music, and that which the 75 minute opus promised, meant that I actually had to read the article ...

... which immediately referenced San Francisco being "called by some a failed city." I'm relatively sure that at some point, everyone and everything, including music critic Mark Swed, has been called by someone a failed something (see No There There for a take on why this annoys me). This comment in any other article would have meant a quick exit from the rabbit hole, but somehow Swed had to be connecting the City's problems of wealth gaps and homelessness with the Busoni concerto (and the giant-ass piano) pushing human boundaries for 75 f-ing minutes. He starts with a brief discoursion (if that's not a word then it should be) on San Francisco's Pride parade and its (apparently) often empty Civic Center (has Swed himself stepped into a rabbit hole?).

Swed then comments (in a very captivating way) on the breadth and reach of Busoni's piano concerto (this is, after all, a music review, I think), concluding that "it goes without saying" (apparently not) "that Busoni's concerto conspicuously goes where none had before." It goes without saying that this review is becoming curiouser and curiouser (again, apparently not). Continuing down this rabbit hole review, Swed comments that "the score is not unplayable" (that would be a performance worthy of a truly rabbit hole review).

The review turns to an historical perspective on Busoni and his students who surprisingly (at least to me) had a strong California connection, including to the Bay-area music scene of the 60s and 70s and the associated Beats, hippies, and, hey, wait a minute -- this isn't freefall down a rabbit hole -- this Swed guy's writing is gravity to my apple (but alas no connections to the counter-culture followed, with perhaps the action taking place on a different corner or in a different summer). I strayed into some of these influences many years ago, but simply never succumb to those black holes (but somehow the blues stuck).

There's more. Swed started with some urban criticism and now returns with musings on the San Francisco cultural scene (or at least part there of) with a simply wonderful quote from 1893 by Busoni himself warning that in America:

"the average is better than elsewhere, but along with that there is much more average than elsewhere, and as far as I can see, it will soon all be average."

In response to SCOTUS ending affirmative action in college admissions, Harvard's Paola Cecchi-Deimeglio proposes a potential means to move forward, not by changing the admission process (as the University of California did after passing Proposition 209 in 1996) but by changing faculty diversity. Good in theory but I see four potential problems.

First, if race can't be used to admit students then it likely can't be used to hire faculty. At UCI under California's Prop 209 we could not advertise for faculty of color but we could fund positions in areas of research involving diversity, inclusion and equity. Nonetheless, of six final candidates for two positions, only two were faculty of color. This leads to the second problem: there is not a readily available supply of diverse faculty. Third, and this view is subjective, I don't embrace the role model perspective. While it may have some merit on the undergrad level, I don't see faculty of any particular category serving as that important of a consideration at the graduate level (in was not possible to discern whether analysis results presented in the article were causal or correlative). From my rather narrow perspective with grad programs, faculty are looking for the most qualified students, and students are looking for funding and research support from the most qualified faculty.

Last, the composition of any faculty body changes slowly in both absolute and relative terms compared to the composition of the student body. An institution that hires faculty in certain categories for diversity (given the concerns raised above) in anticipation of diversity changes in the student body, effectively locks that distribution in for decades (assuming that they've hired quality faculty candidates)? Should we only hire female faculty given their current faculty levels and reflecting the current 57 percent female student body in U.S. institutions? We want the best students, defined over a range of qualifications, including diversity, and we will have them for four years. We want the best faculty, defined over a range of qualifications but primarily dependent om research promise, and we will have them for perhaps 30 years. These may sound like similar problems but they cannot be resolved with similar solutions.

Reflecting on how to address the recent SCOTUS decision to end Affirmative Action as we know it, we can likely start by considering the University of California's response to Proposition 209 which effectively ended affirmative action in California in 1996. The University introduced a holistic admission process that takes into consideration the path an applicant has followed, in part base on the essays written as part of the application. First, there's a real bias here since essays "polished" by external support in wealthier families may outweigh a truly heartfelt response from someone without such resources. So why can factors that may make a difference be properly assessed?

How about real time essays assigned to every applicant who selects a one hour time slot during which they have access to a random essay prompt and to provide their response. There could and probably should be multiple rounds of this process. Each round would require a personal take that would minimize input from resources other than the applicant's own sense of self. What essay topics may be of interest? For a specified institution and major (with associated college costs and average post-graduate incomes), how about:

Our institution will cost you about $200,000 for a four year degree. In your major, the average graduate will make about $65,000 annually. Tell us how you can balance the cost of an education with the benefits of a career in your chosen field. How do you plan to pay for these costs and, if any funds must be borrowed, how will they be re-payed?

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"Between 2020 and 2022, states with Republican-controlled legislatures had about a 50 percent higher rate of deaths from firearms assaults than states with Democratic-controlled legislatures. They had about a 35 percent higher rate of mass killings."

In Barbarian Days: A Surfing Life, author William Finnegan meets an American surfer somewhere on Tonga, "a missionary of some kind," who:

"had traveled the same path that a great many surfers took, from California beach
town to Hawaiian outer island, ingesting an overload of hallucinogens along the way,
and then arriving, somewhat fried, at the feet of their Lord and Savior."

Note: From the publisher's note on Finnegan winning the 2016 Pulitzer Prize in Biography:

"Barbarian Days is William Finnegan's memoir of an obsession, a complex enchantment. Surfing only looks like a sport. To initiates, it is something else entirely: a beautiful addiction, a demanding course of study, a morally dangerous pastime, a way of life."

An LA Times article by David Lauter (26 June 2023) provides an excellent summary of fundamental design shortcomings of the Supreme Court that have been pronounced over the past decade. Here, I do not refer to fundamental liberal/conservative issues but to the simple fact that these issues have become politicized due to structural design. As politics drives the appointment of ever younger justices that are as far left or right as the party in power, term limits are central to resetting the Court to better match the general public's sense that fundamentals of law, and not politics, should be central to all judicial decisions. One proposal features 18 year terms with reappointment required every two years. That proposal made by Steven Calabresi, the conservative co-founder of the Federalist Society, is similar to that made by Michael Waldman, a liberal and president of the Brennan Center for Justice. Apparently, the experts and the general public agree. [Note: see Other Terms]

An LA Times opinion piece "An office apocalypse or housing boom?" by Jason Ward (23 June 2023) discusses the pros and cons of converting unused office buildings into residential housing. Remote work has led to high office vacancies and in turn to potential defaults on office buildings loans. Ward offers a win/win proposition for providing office tax abatements to prevent distressed sales that would lower property tax revenues while gaining housing. Office space reductions may also help to maintain office leasing rates. Little was said about the cost of converting to residential properties but the cost of doing mothing is real. I've not been a supporter of many housing propositions that seem to be more throwing money at the problem rather than fixing it. This idea may work, but don't hold your breath.

Smart Cities, like most things that are smart, on the surface are hard to criticize, but sometimes I think that "there is no there there" (mea culpa!). Most of the proposed component strands of Smart Cities are essentially electronic spaghetti: toss the strands at the nearest (stably funded) wall and see what sticks. Right now, I think we have a lot of spaghetti on the floor (props to Steve Rooney for the bon mot).

From our former U.S. representative John Campbell blog:

"We are all in the middle of a fight right now. It is a fight for the soul of America. It is also a fight for Judeo/Christian culture and enduring values. It is a fight for common sense and reason. It is a fight for economic success and security. And it is a fight for both God and science. No, the two are not mutually exclusive."

So while we disagree on much, I value his ideas and opinions because he has clearly thought about his words and proposals, appears to be open to new concepts while reflecting what has worked in the past and may work in the future, and in general wants the same goal as I, in the broadest sense, a peaceful life for all. But back to baseball and winning, the blog's central analogy. The final score determines the winner in baseball. In life, the final score is never really known. Life is a flow, a process, where most important things do not show up in a box score, or on a trophy shelf, or with sycophants praising one's past. Most people appear happy when such goals are achieved, but that does not make them right.

Gertrude Stein famously wrote in Everybody's Autobiography of her childhood home in Oakland,

"There is no there there."

...needs to start at birth. The expression "a level playing field" implies that everyone is born with the same fundamental rights and, equally important, has equal access to public resources such as education and health care. This does not mean that everyone will have the same opportunities provided to them or, even when this may occur, that each will take advantage of these opportunities in a similar manner. There thus is a kneejerk reaction to correct for the absence of this level playing field later in life when some cohorts of society realizes that the field of play has rarely been level. An example would be in college admissions.

A letter in the LA Times (19 June 2023) comments on an earlier OpEd ("Affirmative action isn't hurting Asian Americans," 14 June 2023). The letter writer's heart is in the right place but I disagree with the perspective presented, that we are fundamentally a democracy and not a meritocracy. We have a republican form of democracy but exist within a capitalist system that is a meritocracy, and that should include colleges and universities. Merit, however, is not based only on "numbers from test scores" alone and, as the letter writer states, "other factors come into play." These factors reflect a blend of individual and societal measures of merit. On the individual level, context is critical. The level of quality from K-12 schools varies significantly (yet another example of playing fields not be level) so grades and test scores do not reflect underlying merit. This is why many institutions such as the University of California have introduced holistic admissions that explicitly attempts to take context, "the individual's overall performance on their playing field," into consideration. The problem is that this is not easy to to when one takes societal measures into account. The solution, if there is one, is not to implement remedial strategies (or at least not to stop at such strategies) but to have society go back to Day 1 and start to level the playing field.

American voters continue to evolved and the basic strategies to maintain political power are Strategy A, co-evolve to reflect changing population values, or Strategy B, change the playing field. Beginning with the initial success of Strategy B in 2016, the Republican Party has firmly bought into Strategy B, despite less than stellar results in the 2020 and 2022 elections. It may not be much of an over-simplification to say that the childish strategies of Me/Now to never admit defeat and to attack any person, place, or thing that does not reflect his distorted vision of his own ability to lead are now mainstream Republican mantra. This may change if and when Me/Now goes back under the escalator from which he emerged and his MAGA base begins to realize that they are indeed the fools for which he has played them. More likely is the continued attack on American institutions and fundamental moral tenets that reflect the only policy position that Me/Now holds in his attempt to stay in the public eye and out of jail.

An LA Times OpEd (11 June 2023), "Newsom's plan to speed up construction is half-baked," criticizes the governor's attempts to effectively "swap horses midstream." While it might get you where you're going, in a brute force or heuristic manner, there are no guarantees, and some valued safeguards may be lost in the transition. Setting societal sights on a green environment and public health became popular in the 1970s and resulted in NEPA and, in California, CEQA, instituting comprehensive processes in an attempt to control environmental impacts. With pro-development forces often willing to do anything to get a project approved, it is critically important to have laws that say "not so fast," even if that means that some good projects will be significantly delayed.

The typical major infrastructure project, from conception, through planning and design, through construction and ribbon-cutting, apparently averages about 13 years, with delays primarily due to court challenges, often on environmental grounds. However, eliminating inefficiencies in the process, especially regarding legal challenges, is not a call for eliminating environmental protection.

Bent Flyvbjerg's research on megaproject planning and management compares plans with actual outcomes, and explains discrepancies. Flyvbjerg documents what he calls The Iron Law of Megaprojects: "Over time, over budget, under benefits, over and over again." Megaprojects that are on time, budget, and benefits do exist, but they are rare, according to the data. In transportation, we need to consider what degree these delays are fundamentally due to a flawed planning process (see my series on "The Evolution of Travel Forecasting"). There's not one future, and the future is not always growth, and growth is not always infrastructure. It is past time when that planning modus operandi should be re-examined and re-considered.

From World Party's "Way Down Now" (Karl Wallinger, 1990) are some lines worth singing today:

"The clocks will all run backwards
All the sheep will have two heads
And Thursday night and Friday
Will be on Tuesday night instead
And all the times will keep on changing
And the movement will increase
There's something about the living
That sends me off my feet
There's breeding in the sewers
And the rats are on their way
They're clouding up my images
Of my perfect day

Won't you show me something true today
C'mon and show me anything but this"

Une courte promenade a la voiture et, ooh la la, printemps en Paris.

"Turn your music so loud, let's attract a big crowd." The Faces "Cindy Incidentally"

SmartBrief for Civil Engineers comments that "cities begin to recover, but office areas not so much," based on an Wall Street Journal article (30 May 2023). While some cities are rebounding with activities, particularly those which had vibrant residential areas pre-pandemic, many cities which were dependent on office districts are not seeing the same resurgence. The WSJ quotes Richard Florida: "We're now back to what cities really are -- they're not containers for working." Over history, cities have evolved from residential villages to business centers with the rise of trade and agriculture, and to 20th century corporate centers. Perhaps Florida is right: maybe cities will now morph into a new version of cities for living, including jobs that are supportive of life styles and incorporating working from home. The day-to-day patterns of cities have never been static and we may well be at a point where urban evolution is again accelerating, where cities no longer recover but are redefined.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

My PhD advisor once said that the only faculty who need tenure are those who don't deserve it. That remark was in a gentler era when the status of universities, and education as a fundamental part of maturing as a member of society, were not only not challenged but embraced as a means to achieve the American Dream. Of course, that was also an era when politicians were good people who respected their colleagues and worked for their constituents. Now we see attacks on college faculty and the tenure system, particularly in states where reactionary politics has become the only possibility of maintaining the status quo.

The political arena has changed in the last several years and I see the only viable response to this ongoing degradation of politics and public discourse to be term limits -- fairly generous limits on both elected and appointed federal offices (see Other Terms). Should something parallel to this be required in academia? From a performance perspective, no, not at all. The level of production -- both research and teaching -- as well as collegiality and public service in most faculties remains as high as it has even been. There is no "us versus them" mentality. little social media bias, nor any lies or misinformation campaigns anywhere of which I am aware in academia (I do not include collegiate sports, an enterprise in and of itself). With that said, I personally would be open to an eighteen-year review, but keep in mind that University of California faculty are reviewed every 2-3 years and their salaries and promotions are fully dependent on their performance. And tenure is not a guarantee since faculty can still be terminated for a variety of causes, including non-performance (just try to get a politician or a judge out of office).

In Counting Cars: New AI-Driven Approach Fine-Tunes Road Tolls to Reduce Traffic, Adam Hadhazy (10 April 2023) reports on a congestion pricing scheme that supposedly could lessen societal costs by optimizing tolls based on driver behavior. The algorithm uses AI to adjust tolls based on real-time traffic volumes. The algorithm from Stanford researchers supposedly could balance roadway supply with driver demand. Unfortunately, supply in real time reflects demand decisions made many minutes or even hours before hand.

The link to this study was published in SmartBrief for Civil Engineers (17 April 2023) along with a separate item on The United Kingdom cancelling 14 planned smart motorway schemes due to cost and safety concerns. The plan was to "maximize the available road space and reduce congestion" but the results included "a series of fatal accidents where drivers were stranded in live lanes and unable to pull over on the shoulder."

The algorithm may work for fully autonomous vehicle operations where comprehensive information systems can provide real time cost and time information, but when humans in today's cars are the decision makers, forget about it. Real time decisions, such as responding to dynamically changing tolls, can't be made efficiently by humans. Consider the outcry to speed enforcement cameras which are a contributing factor to increased rear-end collisions at intersections with red-light cameras, results similar to the UK experience above. Years ago, the City of Irvine swapped standard 8-phase traffic control at selected intersections with protected/permissive operation where a green ball replaced a green arrow and provided left turners with more opportunities to turn if no opposing traffic was coming. Sound in theory but accident rates skyrocketed and all the intersections were returned to prior operations.

There's also the angle of not being able to choose a route if the cost is not known in advance. This is also a bit of a problem when tolls vary by pre-defined times of day when drivers reach the decision point as to whether they can enter in time to get the lower rate. The fundamental roadway design rule for traffic safety is to never surprise drivers. Dynamic tolls violate this.

Variety may be the spice of life...
... but certainly not it's comfort food. So who likes congestion pricing? First, economists love it because it's what they do with their unlabeled over-simplified axes supposedly representing rational consumers). Second, tech businesses love it since it provides a revenue source on perhaps the largest public system that has never lent itself to revenue collection. Third, governments love the revenue (conservatives because tolls are sold as user fees but even progressives if equity can be reflected). Fourth, agencies and operators love it since it can fulfill their need to be "doing something" about congestion (and raising revenues to boot). Fifth, wealthy people love it since they can afford it and it might reduce congestion for them. Sixth, people who hate automobiles love it because in reigns in drivers. So who hates congestion pricing? Everybody else, for all the reasons above.

There's a capitalist mantra that growth is good. For some top feeders, this may be true, at least in the short run. But at some point, growth simply becomes unsustainable and at the extreme is becomes a cancer. The critical element of all sustainability concepts is maintaining the status quo where there is balance and adjusting growth and resource consumption where there is not. I've written about this in the area of transportation and activity systems in general and on topics such as induced demand and housing in particular. A recent article by Teri Sforza in the Orange County Register considers public school enrollments. The demographic changes driving California population over the past decade are birth rates, which are in continual decline (not just in California) and migration has become outbound. This is not necessarily a problem but it does require comprehensive planning that considers readily available data.

Some trends that seem to call for further examination are the particularly large decreases in kindergarten enrollments and the geographical distribution of decline (it is not uniform across the state). Some attention should be directed toward private school enrollment that was not discussed in the article. Demographic changes, both absolute and distributive, has readily available data and the quicker the State addresses these changes the better off we all will be. Declining growth does not need to be a problem. As B. F. Skinner wrote:

"If the world is to save any part of its resources for the future,
it must reduce not only consumption but the number of consumers."

I found a recent BBC article about the Dutch term "niksen" which is the name of a wellness trend. It means 'do nothing" and I suddenly realized that I know a lot of people who must be quite well. But I also know a lot who do seem subject to the exhaustion and depression often associated with overwork and burnout. The way to ease this stress is to do the exact opposite of the behaviors that lead to that stress. "Do nothing" means literally that: sit in a chair and watch the world go by.

Personally, I've found parallel ways to address the stress and anxiety associated with overwork. I've often listened to music, not while working but instead of working. In recent years, I hike. While that's not strictly doing nothing, for me it achieves the same Zen state of my mind doing nothing while my body moves through the world. I've also found that there's an accumulated knowledge and experience that comes from being well- if not over-worked for many years that, for me at this point in my life, has produced a state of mindfulness that allows me to be productive without becoming overworked or anxious. Niksen? Maybe. Does it work? For me, yes.

I had a brief exchange with Professor Monica Menendez (NYUAD) regarding research her research which identified what she deemed "representative patterns" of observed traffic by spatial location. It caught my eye since that was the term I used for Representative Activity Patterns when classify travel/activity patterns. My concern was that the article referred to these identified patterns as reflecting "human mobility." I thought that "network mobility' was a more appropriate term that suggested a pattern that repeats at the network level (for example, similar volume or performance values) where as the "human mobility" is suggestive of regular patterns of the actual humans traveling. It is unlikely that the same humans in the same vehicles are present at the same general location at the same time under the same traffic conditions.

The limited evidence I have seen suggests that "network mobility" patterns likely exist but at the network level "human mobility" patterns do not. From an operational view, the network patterns may be all that matters, but the human view may be more important in predicting not over the course of minutes or hours, but over the course of months or years. Professor Menendez concurred. Interesting stuff.

In his 1889 essay The Decay of Lying, Oscar Wilde wrote that "Life imitates art far more than art imitates life". Today's LA Times (23 May 2023) clouds the direction of causality. The front page featured an article on the reality TV show Vanderpump Rules, which may be the entertainment pinnacle of "people behaving badly." On the Op/Ed page was Jonah Goldberg's column on the continued devolution of the Republican party with the vile insurgency of Trumpian shenanigans with Me/Now the GOP front-runner. Sadly, it is real life that has become the entertainment, while the entertainment is on the front page. Money and power, and the associated media attention, remain the root of all political behavior. Goldberg concludes that GOP voters "want the entertainment - the policy stuff is incidental." Vanderpump Rules is reality TV; The Me/Now Show is reality. Open your eyes, before it's too late.

I find it ironic, in searching for what may be my last (or is it really my first) real relationship, that I've placed a geo-fence around how far I'm willing to travel to be with that person. Not long ago I met someone online who was probably too far away, a distance that became even greater when she returned to her actual home in Casa de Oro (only a place called Corazon de Oro could sound more enticing), a place name that I had never known before, but one replete with mythical, spiritual, and metaphorical connotations.

In matters of the heart, distance should not be defined by meters of space, but I've always believed that there should be an easiness to get to the point where subtle glances and touches are exchanged as the first signs that something deeper, something real, is evolving. And meters and moments are often more real than glances and touches (at least until you've realized those sensations). This philosophical baggage is a burden that I carry on my shoulders and that reflects how I feel on the inside, but is it stopping me from finding what I'm seeking?

In an eNews from The Economist (20 May 2023), Yuval Noah Harari posed the question:

"What would happen once a non-human intelligence becomes better than the average human at telling stories, composing melodies, drawing images, and writing laws and scriptures?"

The Chronicle of Higher Education reports that "Colleges struggle to help students answer the question 'Why am I taking this class?' (Beth McMurtrie, 17 May 2023). I offer some comments regarding General Education drawn from decades of experience at an institution where one third of undergraduate degree unit requirements are in Categories of General Education (note that some of these broad Gen Ed requirements simultaneously fulfill major requirements).

• Not everyone understands Gen Ed; many of these people also don't understand higher education.
• Many faculty members can be mistaken for Idiot Savants; many of them also don't understand Gen Ed.
• It's easy to get a Gen Ed course approved, courses which are rarely reviewed, and which allow faculty to teach what they want with a good chance of sufficient enrollment, and those enrolled often face few real challenges (except understanding why they have to take Gen Ed in the first place).
• Many Gen Ed courses have little if any connections to broader programmatic issues, but this is sometimes also true of courses in majors.
• Did I mention that sometimes (such as my institution) total Gen Ed units are one third of the total degree? I will also add that may majors have significant units categorized as free electives meaning they fill no other requirement, whether major or Gen Ed.

"As the state's population falls, housing construction booms" reads a headline in the LA Times (10 Wednesday 2023). Yes, homebuilding is increasing and currently at a 14 year high. Experts say that this not enough, but were these the same experts who did not see this trend forming? And trend might be a better word than boom. Looks like the strongest growth is in California's rural counties, which of course is not where the pundits had hoped, since nothing short of dense, affordable apartments lining the southern California beaches from Malibu to San Onofre, all well served by public transit, will satisfy them (UCLA's Michael Lens refers to the battleground they're facing as "overly restricted coastal areas"). Beverly Hills should absorb people, said Lens. If he started with this I could have saved seven minutes of my time, the time it takes me to walk to my office in single-family home dominated Irvine, or the time it would have taken to write this post.

There's apparently a shift underway of container ships heading to east and gulf coast ports rather than the conventional west coast ports, the Los Angeles / Long Beach port complex in particular (see: Port Container Shift ). The article reports that, since the start of the pandemic, a proportional shift has occurred. I do not argue that a shift (albeit rather minor) has not occurred, but rather with the reasons why:

"A gradual shift was already underway. But itis getting supercharged by simmering West Coast port labor talks, the near-shoring of factory production amid rising tensions with China, and US population growth shifting to the Sunbelt states."

In the Daily Pilot insert to the Sunday LA Times (7 May 2023), Patrice Apodaca asks "Will the e-bike revolution run out of juice?" First of all, e-bikes are not a revolution. As with cars, bicycles have been around for about 150 years, and electric versions of each have been around since the beginning. Current designs of e-bikes (and other e-versions of scooters, skateboards, and other micro-mobility devices) have been around for a decade or two. These technologies are becoming more popular, in part because potential and legal usage is becoming more clearly defined. Nothing about these changes are revolutionary. Second, like other technology evolutions (not revolutions), the general improvement in quality, cost, and usability of e-bikes is probably indicative that they are not going to disappear.

A primary factor limiting bicycles from playing a larger role in multi-modal transportation systems is the physical effort required, particularly in extreme topographies and climates. Apodaca draws an interesting comparison with Segways. Twenty years ago Segways were unveiled as the second coming of the automobile, however, production stopped altogether a few years ago. The Segway was not cheap and it was fundamentally different. For comparison sake, a cell phone is not much different from a regular phone, or a regular camera, or a regular music player, or... cell phones just fit. There were no adjustments to be made. Bicycles fit, but with greater limits since not everyone feels comfortable on a bike, but most of those who are comfortable would have no problem adjusting to an e-bike. Those who see the bicycle as more recreation of exercise equipment will not be replacing their bikes with e-bikes, but as a mode of transportation, count on seeing e-bikes for a long time. The Segway was something different altogether. The built environment never was a good fit for Segways but, while there are some problems with regular bicycles, there are few if any additional problems with e-bikes. Today's e-bikes are not Segways, which was a interesting fringe technology looking for a niche (a Sharper Image, if you will).

Governing reports that "Sidewalks, speed bumps and similar projects are underway in many US cities thanks to $800 million" from the federal Safe Streets and Roads for All program. Editorializing on this news item, Smart Brief for Civil Engineers includes walking in a list with cycling, 15-minute cities, and Vision Zero policies having 'been the rage' and then says that May is National Walking Month (but adds that pedestrian deaths remain at 40-year highs). I can only assume that by 'rage' they mean the slang usage as a 'fad' (which is unfortunately indicative of a passing fancy). When I searched for National Walking Month I found a timeline that included 20 July 1969 which of course is when man first walked on the moon. Not included was the date of man first driving on the moon, which occurred just two years later and greatly expanded exploration accessibility (and, yes, all three lunar rovers, electric of course, are still parked just where they left them).

1. Sometimes Bigger is Better?
Regarding an LA Times editorial (5 May 2023), an engineer with Electric Vehicle (EV) experience addresses EV weight versus EV efficiency, suggesting that at least some models of heavier EVs are more efficient. But he adds that despite models such as the Ford F-150 and Rivian being quite heavy they are also less efficient. But that's not the key point. He adds that trading a similar Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle for one of these heavy EVs has a greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions than the tradeoff for a lighter car (say, a small Chevy for a Bolt, the latter's production stoppage being the topic in the original editorial).

2. To Live or Move from LA (Wang Chung)
Regarding an LA Times column by George Skelton on housing (4 May 2023), a former California adds that it's much more than the cost of LA housing: it's all LA prices. She moved to Richmond, VA and wants to tell those remaining in California why, but also to not invite them to move to Richmond, with "its walkability and its canopy of trees" (um, too late, your letter was published). There is so much here. LA, and California as a whole, has had declining growth for a decade with actual loss of population over the past two years. Yes, it's expensive here, but demand still exceeds supply. Moving elsewhere is precisely the reaction a rationale person would have who values economic utility over, say, weather, family, or the cost of moving. The decrease in demand will ultimately decrease prices. This is a land market equilibration. it's "as natural as the rain..."

JP of Russell Surfboards donates a custom surfboard to Newport Beach's new Peninsula Fire Station 2.

Recent actions by Republican controlled state houses regarding college education issues such as tenure and diversity can be seen as overly reactive responses to perceived overreach on the part of progressives in similar or related areas. When the issue on one side, whether justified to any degree or not, is perceived as overreach by the other side, then the response will typically be overreach further still. The entire situation is exacerbated by a general tenor, in part instilled by the former president but more so by the pusillanimous lack of backbone by GOP office holders to resist Me/Now's utter immorality, that everything is fair game and that any bad action can be outdone by an even worse reaction. If any sense of decorum is to be resurrected, it will take much longer than the fall from grace. The only way for the needed immediate response is to remove the parties violating fundamental ethics from power. But there's a catch.

Anyone with even half a brain knows that there was no election fraud in 2020, right? Well, actually, there was. It's called gerrymandering, a simple geographic division of a pie so the overeaters always get more than their fair share. An area with 60 percent of voter registration in Party A can end up with 40 percent of representation when districts are Gerrymandered. This is pure and simple voter fraud. No, the ballots aren't being changed, nor are people voting more than once (nor dead people voting). It's more insidious because everyone can vote and every vote be properly counted, but it just won't matter. The common response to calls for removing someone guilty of unethical behavior from office is to let the voters make this choice. However, in gerrymandered districts, they don't really have a choice. The only option is term limits, which will be difficult to enact as gerrymandering is difficult if not impossible to eliminate, because the foxes are firmly in control of the hen house.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

A potential solution could maintain usage fees but allow any household that chooses to verify income to receive a rate reduction appropriate for their income range. Those households that choose to not disclose income would pay the going rates for usage. It would make sense that rates, even reduced rates, rather than fixed charges, apply to even low income households to provide the incentive to reduce usage.

"The word 'fascism' is often thrown around loosely, and some may feel applying this label is overly dramatic. But its current manifestation in the U.S. mirrors its incarnation eras ago: an ideology that glorifies the traditional and masculine, believes in a spiritual right to exact violence, and calls for the seizure of government for authoritarian rule. The fascists are unified by their love of violence, their hatred of progress, and their sinister sense of entitlement that declares America belongs to them."

Burdened by the yoke of celestial oxen plowing the heavens to grow stars.

It would be hard to argue, at least with a traffic engineer, that maintaining optimal signal timing should not be a priority. It would take more fingers than I possess to count the number of theses and dissertations just at UC Irvine that addressed better mousetraps for keeping traffic moving, some that were directed toward dynamic control that could self-adjust. Decades ago, I was engaged in projects to improve traffic signal timing in cities throughout southern California, a process that has continued to this day (so I guess that none of those proposed mousetraps have advanced professional practice). The remarkable thing about these field projects is that the results are quite comparable and positive. Recent efforts in Orange County resulted in average reductions in travel time (13%) and stops (29%), fuel consumption savings ($14 million), and increased speed (14%) (Source: OCTA, 2023).

So what does this mean? First and foremost, it is likely that growth and the continual evolution of traffic patterns will alter the efficiency of traffic signal systems, particularly synchronization. The problem is exacerbated by a fundamental irregularity inherent in real-world networks (for example, intersection spacing, major and minor flow differentials, and institutional control conflicts). Repeating these optimization projects every so many years will likely produce similar improvements, but are these cumulative improvements or are we simply resetting the bar? While it's certainly the latter, this does not mean that cities should not be maintaining signal timings on a regular basis. It does not appear, however, that any advanced technologies for coordinating these traffic signal systems in real time have been deployed.

Are there any problems with this approach? Not necessarily, since it may well be that the relative cost of signal coordination every few years is more efficient that replacing the control system with some advanced technology (which, as far as I know, may not yet exist). What these field studies really achieve is the management but not the resolution of traffic delays. In the presence of growth, congestion can only be managed. Any attempt to add capacity, and improving signal timing is an effective increase in system capacity, will create shifts in traffic flows (changes in destination, mode, path, and time of day) as drivers seek to improve their individual performance. Furthermore, the act of traffic signal timing typically attempts to optimize only vehicle flow, with some constraints imposed for pedestrian, bicycle, and other modal flows. This is not a big issue in Irvine but it quite likely should be in most locations. In the interim, think of these studies and the associated results as only a report card and, in fact, a report card that only presents part of the systems' performance and may serve to lock-in current traffic priorities in spite of overall transportation goals.

A Note on Irvine:
The City is a relatively young (about 50 years) master-planned city with a rather unique hierarchical roadways network. Both the transportation network and the associated land use pattern were master planned and carefully synchronized. There is little traffic congestion on the City's surface streets. The City is proud of their Traffic Management Center, although it has always been unclear to me what benefits arise from a high-tech mission control center (there are several in southern California) relative to the same tech on individual desks. I use the expression mission control based on the mock system in Disneyland's Space Mountain that looks cool but does not actually run anything (just saying). The article on which this post was based appeared in the March Irvine Standard, a publication of The Irvine Company. The article mentions a joint City project with UCI's Institute of Transportation Studies "Smart Cities and Connected and Autonomous Vehicles" project. I am not involved in that project.

"Transforming highways for high-speed travel and energy transport" via a system that combines superconductor levitation, lossless electricity transmission, and hydrogen transportation? The title of this SmartBrief for Civil Engineers post suggested a focus on highways rather than high speed trains and/or power transmission. Superconductors require very low temperatures, which apparently is where the hydrogen comes into play. The superconductor would be in the "track" rather than in the vehicle, thus, as one of the study's authors stated, it would be "superconductor-levitated magnetic vehicles, instead of magnet-levitated superconducting vehicles." Cooling the superconductor and transporting the hydrogen is proposed as a simultaneous solution, but I'm not so sure about the cost of the cooling not to mention the cost of producing the hydrogen, the infrastructure cost, or even the forward propulsion for the levitating vehicles. As many sources have expressed, "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; in practice, there is."

In the Daily Pilot section of Sunday's LA Times, Patrice Apodaca asks "What's behind the downward trend in higher education?" (23 Apr 2023) referring to decreasing college enrollment (apparently, over one million fewer undergraduates than 4 years ago). She offers some possible explanations including:

• enrollment has been steadily declining for about a decade before the pandemic;
• rising tuition and costs of attending college, resulting in increased student load debt;
• reduced state support and a shrinking number of high school graduates; and
• The pandemic

"well-rounded education that produces critical thinkers who know how to research, study, analyze, and communicate well. Our nation would be poorer without them."

Someone wrote that "30% of urban traffic is actively seeking a parking space." If you drop the word 'actively' then you can change that to 100 percent. Parking is not some frivolous activity that drivers do at the end of a trip. It's sort of the whole purpose of the driving: effectively accessing a different location to perform a desired activity, one that virtually never itself involves the vehicle. Unlike public and pseudo-public modes (ride hailing), and perhaps in the future autonomous vehicles, but similar to bicycling, drivers keep their vehicle in the remote vicinity of their activity. Besides, if there's so damn much parking, as the many who are anti-automobile claim, why in the hell are one out of three people driving around trying to find it? This 30 percent statistic was attributed to UCLA's Don Shoup who accepted an albeit mistaken culpability but it serves to illustrate how common and easy it is to misrepresent and misuse statistics in our field. This extends to graphs and maps.

Being a life-long aficionado of all things map-related, I was happy to find a column by Frank Jacobs entitled Strange Maps. Recently, my journey down that rabbit hole led me to Parking Lots Eat American Cities (26 March 2023), which if nothing else served to remind me that maps are usually 2-dimensional and are similar to statistics in that they can be used "as a drunken man uses lamp posts, for support rather than for illumination." (Andrew Lang). The basic argument, supported (but not illuminated) by maps, was that we have too much parking in our cities.

"The twin gods of Smooth Traffic and Ample Parking have turned our downtowns into places that are easy to get to, but not worth arriving at." The quote is from urban designer Jeff Speck. It's hard to think of a pithier one to describe the parking pandemic blighting America's city centers -- except perhaps the title of a Bloomberg article on the same topic: "Parking has eaten America's cities."

"On average, about one-fifth of all land in city centers is dedicated to parking. But what's the actual harm being done by all that parking space? For one, city centers that are more 'park-able' become less walkable. In other words, fewer things are casually accessible."

Really? Transportation networks in major cities are inordinately permanent as are the resulting land use blocks. Does the use of a parcel for parking provide any less space for walkability? Virtually all walkable spaces in cities are sidewalks, effectively as permanent as the roadway network (or parks, also typically permanent). Very few parcels, regardless of land use, allow pedestrian flows through the parcel. Having more parcels containing a greater number of attractions (e.g., jobs, stores, and restaurants) can increase accessibility (defined as access to opportunities) but those are decisions made by private developers. Regarding mandated parking for new developments, these are on-site requirements that change neither the parcel footprint nor walkability, other than indirectly if more parking leads to more cars which in a dense area can lead toward reduced walkability. But such broad statements without supporting data are inappropriate.

I do not doubt the numerous examples of seemingly high proportions of land for parking in selected cities. For example, 35 percent of the land in central Lubbock is parking lots, despite the claimed absence of a vibrant downtown. To what degree these lots are utilized was not provided but one may assume that people are not flocking to downtown activity locations so there are likely, as is the case in Detroit (33%), a lot of vacant parcels. Vacant parcels tend to turn into parking lots, unless the city in question is enjoying real growth and development and vacant parcels are transient. The parking maps can only show horizontal area while in a dense city those parcels that are not parking are likely tall buildings. I'm reminded of the graphic that has a street with 40 cars and 40 people and the same street with one bus and the same 40 people. That graphic ignores the greater benefits of accessibility provided by the car by focusing on the static road space consumed. The parking maps may be doing the same thing.

Which are the darling cities? New York (1%), Washington, DC (3%), and San Francisco (4%), each also featuring extensive regional transit systems (no insight offered here on the chicken or the egg). What are the surprises? How about the Captain Hook of automobility, Los Angeles (12%). With that said, I would support any local decisions to redesign the downtown areas of cities for non-motorized and public transit. Not full cities, but the downtowns of cities. This will not, however, be simply new policies and minor expenditures. It will have significant costs and no clear revenue sources. Some basic fact checking and a dose of deep thinking is in order, starting with these maps and statistics.

I've been saying this forever, but perhaps more people will listen to Nicholas Dagen Bloom in FastCompany on "Why free fares aren't the solution to our public transit woes" (17 April 2023). First it wasn't just the pandemic that started the decline public transit, and it wasn't just the Great Recession over a decade before, but these two events may have together driven the last spike into the heart of transit as we know it.

On one hand, the benefits of fare free transit, based on limited empirical evidence on domestic transit systems, are (1) financial savings for low-income families at a particularly difficult time; (2) modestly boosted ridership; and (3) increased accessibility to many without other options. On the other hand, the costs of fare free transit are (1) significant loss of fare revenue with no alternative sources readily available; (2) increases in crime and decreases in perceived safety for current and potential riders; and (3) decision maker resistance to subsidizing wealthier riders who can afford the current fares. Fast Company adds:

"Inflation and driver shortages are driving up operating costs. Managers are spending more money on public safety in response to rising transit crime rates and unhoused people using buses and trains for shelter. Many systems are also contending with decrepit infrastructure."

How can Congress suggests that the way to increase the safety and quality of life of school children is to arm teachers at the same time that are disarming many teachers of the best weapons they have by reducing their ability to teach students open-minded and creative thinking, especially about issues relevant in today's world. How long will these leaders allow parents to bury their heads in the sand and ignore the world around them?

In Government Technology, "There is much more work to do to shift cities away from cars" announces the author Skip Descant's intent, but the sub-header makes is more clear:

"A mode shift toward more sustainable transportation like micromobility and transit will take more than an app. It will require a reimagining of cities and how transportation infrastructure is prioritized."

"For all of the advancements around technology and the deployment of a range of mobility options across cities, U.S. travelers still generally stick to one travel mode; and it's usually a car."

What is needed? First, clear definitions are needed of what are real problems and what are personal peeves. Of course it will take "more than an app" but it will also take more than "visionary leaders" (most urban decision makers do not have a background in transportation and activity systems and those who do appear to be quite biased in their referred policies. And don't hold your breath. While many supported the re-use of urban space during the pandemic, this policy change was exceptional and not driven by strong leaders, so one should not expect significant change, at least not quickly. In the manner that telecommuting has decreased significantly as the pandemic has ebbed, underlying habits still are rigid enough to move toward the old norm. Public demand for micro-mobility and the shared economy will need much more success before these are accepted as more than a fad or gimmick. Where the new norm will be, for both telecommuting and for re-purposed urban space for active modes and outdoor activities, is not clear but it would seem to be more likely somewhere in between the pre- and peri-pandemic levels.

The National Institute for Congestion Reduction (NICR) sponsored a seminar on "Supply-Side Management of Auto Traffic" with the following introduction:

"Traffic congestion is challenging to resolve at closely spaced over-saturated intersections. This condition leads to under-utilization of green time at upstream intersections due to queue spill-back from downstream traffic signals (green starvation)."

It often seems that traffic engineers, like carpenters whose only tool is a hammer, are trying to resolve all network problems with traffic control when the root of the problem is more likely fundamental network design. This perspective is all too common in the transportation field where, for example, we assume the independence of land use (activity systems) when modeling travel demand when land use (as with networks) likely define the problems from the start.

This may be a convenient time to re-consider our design perspective since we may be re-envisioning our arterial traffic networks, at least in our densely developed centers. It may be too late to fundamentally change land use patterns in such areas, however, the introduction of new modal technologies may provide opportunities to rethink network elements.

Related Posts:
From In the Crosshairs:

"... transportation networks have an inordinate permanence in the development of cities. Continuous linear space is not easy to assemble so it's no surprise that it's connectivity is prized and protected."

"The historical importance and continued existence of ancient human pathways such as the Inca and Roman road systems, however, are not the sort of permanence to which I refer, nor is the evolution of game trails to walking paths to, sometimes, major highways. I refer not to topographical and structural aspects of such basic pathways but to the pattern of permanence that one finds in most cities. Here, it is not the physical infrastructure of the roadway but rather the space consumed that defines the space of all other urban infrastructure."

Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962) called out the chemical industry for spreading disinformation on pesticides and blaming public officials of blindly accepting industry propaganda. This is no different than the tobacco and oil industries misrepresenting the physiological impacts of tobacco or the climate change impacts of fossil fuels. We are now facing a virtual silent spring with Big Tech saturating consumer society with ubiquitous social media that is distorting interpersonal relationships.

The nature of authoritarian control is the ideological poking of a hornet's nest to rile inhabitants to problems that would not exist had the power seekers not poked the nest. Authoritarian power seekers have accepted the fact that they are no longer able to gain power via conventional means and thus need to instill fear with claims of fake problems that resonate with existing but dormant fears. Their fantasy only works if they can scare you into believing it.

This is exactly what Big Tech has done with social media. They encourage inhabitants that their nests are not good enough unless they post their artificial lives with their many wonderful activities and petty grievances, typically directed toward those who don't share this outlook, or simply look different from them. Their fantasy only works if they can scare you into believing it.

These two forces could never arise at such a scale and pervasiveness unless properly stoked. Our problem is now the convergence of these two forces. Government no longer governs, because a majority of elected officials are fully engaged in social media to rile those who will support then in their drive toward power and control. For what power and control do they aspire? One overriding thing: permanence. They seek to construct a fascist architecture of their own design which ultimately will not depend, as it initially does, on having poked sufficient hornets to gain control of what constitutes political discussion via social media. Congress is social media in its ultimate dysfunctional form. This is the emerging reality.

File this one under Strange Maps. Big Think (30 March 2023) posts "All aboard the train from New York to Paris." For those of you with a 40+ year memory or an inordinate fondness for Steely Dan will surely remember Donald Fagen's 1982 song "I.G.Y. (What a Beautiful World)" which, as with 1957's International Geophysical Year, celebrated (or mocked, this is Donald Fagen after all) the postwar optimism for a 'spandex' future:

"On that train all graphite and glitter
Undersea by rail
Ninety minutes from New York to Paris
More leisure time for artists everywhere
A just machine to make big decisions
Programmed by fellows with compassion and vision
We'll be clean when their work is done
We'll be eternally free yes and eternally young

Can I stare forever into your eyes
Never blinking, never turning away
And you do the same to me?

Can you speak of your past and our future
And drift in the moments between your words
And I do the same for you?

Can our senses like fingers pressed to a mirror
Feel surface tension melt away
While the touch remains intact?

Can we lose ourselves within each other
Sharing space and bending time
Tuning out the ticking world?

Former L.A. City Council member Mark Ridley-Thomas was recently convicted for bribery, conspiracy, and fraud. There was substantial community support for Ridley-Thomas who, as Nicholas Goldberg commented in the LA Times (7 April 2023), has faced "tributes instead of scorn." This is understandable, to a degree. Ridley-Thomas has characteristics of both sinners and saints, but he is neither. He's human ... and humans make mistakes.

To err is human, to forgive divine. Humans make laws for many good reasons and laws regarding fundamental ethics, while often difficult to judge, are nevertheless critical. When ethical codes are violated, the public can forgive but cannot forget. Public officials should be held to not just the same standards but to a higher standard than the general public, especially regarding ethics. It could be argued that the longer one holds public office, the higher those standards should become. There are no victimless crimes and here it's sufficient to say that public faith was violated, not to mention that the public is also paying since all the qualities that Ridley-Thomas offered before will no longer benefit the general public. Any rationale to excuse his crimes due to his prior good behavior is simply wrong: Ridley-Thomas chose to run for office, and his constituents chose to elect him. Both sides knew the requirements. As with many elected officials in any level of government, Ridley-Thomas may have been a saint but he became a sinner. The most important punishment for such sinners, regardless of any saintly virtues, is that sinner should never be allowed to serve in any public capacity again.

What's the end game for reparations? While Blacks in America and Jews world-wide have been most closely associated with the atrocities that humans with privilege and power have inflicted on those whom they deem to be different and thus a threat, there are many cultural, religious, and racial groups who have been repressed throughout human history. The major difference between other groups and Blacks and Jews is that the biases if not repression is active, at least for America, in our own times, while most other biases are deemed lesser, more remote, or perhaps even no longer an issue. This argument is "something has to be done." But what is the end game? Would monetary payments "even the playing field" to those descendant from slavery in the United States? Would payments address past wrongs, or even partially remove human prejudice toward these groups? I only see the opposite occurring. What needs to change is the mindset that imagines differences as threatening, and that is a much bigger problem that doesn't seem to have a solution.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

1. Californians were not much concerned about the increasingly severe draught as they seem to be about cancelling associated conservation measures (hey, if a million deaths couldn't encourage you to wear a mask, I doubt that the pervasive California floods will make you think that there's still a water (ground water in particular) problem in our state.
2. There are two types of migrating Californians: those who are drawn to the place where woke-ness goes to die and those who are not. This ignores the real reasons why anyone migrates: economic opportunity, family, and weather.
3. Would you like your electric vehicle to serve as a mini-substation for your local utility to take the power it needs when it wants it? Didn't really think so.
4. In an OpEd, Jean Guerrero considers "How to stop the polarization that divides Americans" but doesn't really offer solutions. Oddly, I think it's media -- social and conventional -- that's accentuating this divide.

"BART carried 118 million riders in 2019, and fewer than 35 million in 2022; its operating ratio dropped over the same period from 71 percent to 21 percent. A region that was built around one of the strongest downtown job centers anywhere now has the highest rate of remote work and the slowest downtown recovery in the country, says Alicia Trost, BART's chief communications officer."

An installment in my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation.

The term telecommuter should be reserved for a worker who has a formal place of work but, due to policy or preference, worked at a location remote from that work place (such as working from home). It would also make sense to reserve the term "working from home" to the time period when a person is actively working from their home location, regardless of what other work behaviors they may have. The root of the term telework implies that telecommunications are being utilized but it confuses the work location. Is an artist who works from home, and thus is not commuting anywhere and uses no telecommunications, considered to be "teleworking?" Is a office worker using telecommunications at their employer's site considered to be "teleworking?" The answer is 'no' for both examples.

There have been several attempts to define these terms, often driven by the dimensions of location and process. However, none seem to fully address the connection to travel. I propose the following terms with definitions, first basic terms then categories of workers, each relevant to work and travel:

• Working from Home (WfH)
  A work activity corresponding to any time period when a person is performing work from their home location, regardless of any other work behaviors they may have.
• Commuting
  Physical travel by any mode between home and a defined non-home work location.

1. Regular Commuter:
   A worker who travels to a defined work place on a regular basis, but may occasionally not travel to work (ill, child care, vacation) or may even perform incidental work-related activity at home.
2. Regular Telecommuter:
   A worker who has a defined work place but via policy or preference chooses to not commute and to work from home on a regular basis, but may occasionally travel to work (for various in-person interactions).
3. Hybrid Telecommuter:
   A worker who has a work schedule incorporating both regular commuter and regular telecommuter behaviors (such as three days at home and two days in the office, often on a regular schedule).
4. Home Office Worker:
   A worker characterized by no formal place of work other than their place of residence and has no associated commute (and are thus not telecommuters).
5. Co-Worker:
   Co-working space are leased work spaces where individual workers or businesses share common infrastructure including office equipment, utilities, and support services (e.g., reception and custodial services). These places could be a primary work location for a Regular Commuter, a secondary work location for a Regular Telecommuter or a Hybrid Telecommuter, and an exceptional work location for a Home Office Worker

Somehow catching my eye was an older article (5 April 2021) by Jessica Wehrman in in Roll Call entitled "A traffic manual 'to fall asleep by' stirs road rage." Talk about click bait (at least for those of us in the transportation profession). The headline and the deck was enough to make many otherwise interested readers turn away but more than enough to get me revved for a rant. We have: (a) 'a manual to fall asleep by,' (b) 'stirs road rage,' (c) micro-mobility is skyrocketing,' and (d) motor vehicles increasingly autonomous.' My responses are: (a) well of course, (b) inappropriate, (c) no, it's not, and (d) no they're not. I should stop right here, but I discovered that the article's implied connection between Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and the expression 'the notorious MUTCD' is false and the click bait 'notorious' was from NACTO (find your own link) and not Buttigieg. So let's continue. And for those of you happily wandering in left field (today was Opening Day), MUTCD is the FHWA's Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices.

The manual, described in the article as sleep-inducing, is undergoing its first update since 2009 (it has been updated regularly for decades) but stirring road rage, and claims that micro-mobility has skyrocketed and motor vehicles are increasingly autonomous? I'm not sure what the source of the "road rage' in the title was (it's not mentioned in the article( but it likely refers to the NACTO video (which I did not watch) and may well refer to the "rage" of those opposed to the focus on roads dominated by cars rather than actual road rage (in any case, a manual itself cannot stir real road rage). Regarding 'sleep inducing' well, my god, I would hope so. A manual for the planning and engineering of public infrastructure should be clear, to the point, factual, and yes sleep inducing (maybe a slasher flic version would be more to your taste?). Regarding micro-mobility skyrocketing, that's possible only in relative (percentile) terms since few components existed until recently thus it remains minor in absolute terms (not to mention that bicycles are likely the major portion and those numbers are both strong and growing but not skyrocketing). As to motor vehicles being increasingly autonomous"? No, those on the road are not.

A key concern raised is the 85th percentile speed rule: MUTCD recommends that agencies set speed limits within 5 miles per hour of the measured 85th percentile speed of free-flowing traffic (this standard has been relaxed in some states). One Mike McGinn is quoted as saying:

"We set speed limits based on how fast cars are driving, not based on context or the safety impact of the speed limit ... it's like saying we're going to set kids' bedtimes based on the 85th percentile of when they want to go to bed."

Regarding where Mike McGinn is wrong, well, it's only one phrase, but a very important one. An 85th percentile bedtime should be based on not when kids want to go to bed but rather when kids actually do go to bed. Kids, by definition, are not adults and lack judgement that comes with experience (as do many adults, by the way). But we can assume that their parents do on average have this judgement from experience and will set bedtimes appropriately. I doubt Mr McGinn is suggesting that we mandate parenting guidelines on when to send their kids to bed. While I personally doubt that many drivers have all the training and experience they should have, I think that parents may be even more poorly trained and experienced. In any case, posted speeds are set not on the speed drivers would like to travel but at speeds that they actually do travel. If you don't understand this then you should probably actually read MUTCD.

I can understand the frustration of those opposed to the dominance of the automobile. But the comments that I've seen are not in the spirit of revision but in the spirit of revolution (a spirit that seems to becoming the dominant approach to public discourse). "That manual has to get thrown out," said Rep. Jesus Garcia (D-Ill.). That is never a good option for any standard developed with professional and public input and updated at regular intervals for decades. Garcia likely has not read or used MUTCD but he is correct about, as would be anyone uttering his same last comment, that new revisions to the manual should be made "with an eye toward the future." The questions are whose eye and which future?

It seems that there is the conventional model that was indeed auto-centric. It should not be attacked on often ridiculous arguments such as the 85th percentile speed or because the manual will put you to sleep. How can anyone take any such nonsense as a call to improve the standards that the manual sets out to establish? If a multi-modal orientation is now desired, then make that argument. There's a similarity, however, to California's experience with the replacement of the auto-centric Level of Service (LOS) in traffic impact analysis with (the equally auto-centric) Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) rather than attempting to introduce comparable measure of LOS for all relevant modes (there was no real negotiation involved so maybe that is the way to go). Some have argued that the manual is applying a uniformity to all streets (and this may be due to overarching concerns regarding liability) when streets in urban areas are by nature context-sensitive and are thus expected to meet more than just conventional automobile demands. But what's good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander, so is your hometown a goose or a gander.

"Rethinking Quality Of Life In The Era Of Climate Crisis," Sarah Mosko's insightful (23 March 2023) article in The Environmental Magazine is an excellent read addressing quality of life, climate change, and how we got to where we are (the World Happiness Report ranks the U.S. as only 15th in the world). I found most interesting her summary of the work of Edward Bernays (nephew of Sigmund Freud) who used war-time propaganda strategies to maintain the explosion in industrial output while ignoring environmental impacts and essentially cementing the consumer society into American consciousness.

George Skelton is an outlier among LA Times columnists, which in today's socio-politico media circus likely means that he's just too right but in this case (27 March 2023) he's just too wrong. More than once I've seen a video of an armored car losing a few bags of cash and drawing crowds grabbing the floating bills on the road. Not once did I or anyone else see this as the end of any economic problems (if this happened regularly and everyone got to keep the money, and it didn't lead to rampant inflation, then maybe a "gray skies are going to clear up" conclusion would be justified). Skelton claims that the drought is over since we are awash in cash, umm, I mean water, coming down, flooding rivers, filling reservoirs, and building mountain snowpack. What he doesn't see is that our most important store of water is underground, in aquifers which have been drained by both drought and years of agricultural overuse. Skelton starts to make some sense toward the end when he quotes a meteorology definition of drought and then comments that "we had three years of abnormally dry weather that caused a serious hydrological imbalance" and that now we have one season of abnormally wet weather. He even gives a couple or areas where even he thinks the drought persists. But that one wet year is probably just like all that floating cash: a random occurrence and not a new trend. Could it be the start of a new trend? Check back with me in at least two or three years and we'll see.

The Pledge of Allegiance -- you know, that 24-hour promise that children make each and every school day to not do dumbass things like attack the US Capitol -- was last modified in 1954 when the phrase "under God" was added (to scare away the communists, apparently). Nicholas Goldberg provides an LA Times OpEd summary (23 March 2023) of issues associated with the pledge. If you're an American who would never believe bald-faced lies or think of storming the Capitol, then your patriotism is appreciated. If this is not you but you ignorantly refer to yourself as a patriotic American who would storm the Capitol, well, you almost certainly were not reading Goldberg, or this blog.

Goldberg's Pledge OpEd resulted in some letters (26 March 2023), not surprisingly certain in their perspectives. One writer takes God not as, well, you know, "God," but as "a power greater than our individual selves." Unless she's referring to Big Tech, I'm pretty sure her choice of words is synonymous with the conventional image of God. In any case, dropping God still directs the pledge to "one nation" (you know, "a power greater than our individual selves"). A self-declared born-again gentleman refuses to pledge allegiance to anything other than his God (his "Lord Jesus Christ"). I wonder how his wife feels about that? Not to mention God, who said something about "render unto Caesar." And how's he feel about churches and parish schools citing pledges such as the Nicene Creed, especially by children too young to understand what it means? It's simple indoctrination.

I've been reducing, reusing, and recycling since the 1980s. I actively participated in our neighborhood CRV (California Refund Value) recycling effort since my neighbor started the program years ago (all profit goes to the UCI Basic Needs Center). I've been using the same plastic and paper grocery bags for shopping since the pandemic started. I don't have a green waste container because I have a gardener who handles this. My trash and recycling bins (the smallest sizes available) are kept in the garage. There are no odors or other problems.

I generate very little trash. Counting kitchen and bathrooms it amounts to about a third of a plastic trash bag each week. It's my one plastic bag that goes into the waste stream (and landfill) each week but I don't have any need for odor control chemicals or detergents for washing out trash cans. Where will all that soapy water go when people wash out their green waste bins? And I don't want to become that guy washing his trash cans in that Progressive "Don't Become your Parents" TV commercial.

Starting in April, I will be paying 30 percent more each month. I will now likely have a green waste can, but no place to keep it. Apparently a new "food waste pail" for temporary storage of organics will be provided to all single family homes (SFH) to be off-loaded into those new green (organic waste) containers each pick-up day. It's likely that I will use one of those many dozen paper grocery bags that I've been using during the pandemic instead of that new pail and just dispose of waste, paper bag and all, each week. I'll likely have enough paper bags to last a year (unfortunately, I probably won't be able to use my stash of plastic kitchen trash bags for grocery shopping).

My guess is that not many people will be washing out their cans or keeping them in their garage. On my zero lot line street there are no side yards), so we might be seeing a changing streetscape in the neighborhood. Crows, coyotes, raccoons, and rats should love it.

Last time I was in Switzerland, plastic trash bags were fine but they had to be sealed with special ties that were purchased (essentially, a license fee to put a trash bag out for pick-up). That program reduced trash but did not directly address co-mingling and the impacts on recycling (our Waste Management service does charge more for bigger containers but my experience is that most people were not aware of this). I appreciate having folks care enough to consider programs such as California's, but it seems that these programs are usually so-called second-best solutions, and the secondary impacts are not usually considered.

Bringing it full circle, and given the small amounts of trash I generate, maybe it's time to form trash co-ops where multiple household share a set of trash cans. The Waste Management brochure did however suggest that SFHs must by law participate in this program so maybe there are no economic savings by trying to reduce as a coop rather than just filling up your cans to your heart's delight. The best solution might be to put these added monthly fees toward a top-end in-sink garbage disposal that will send your kitchen organics (with your other household organics) to the local sewage treatment plant where it will be converted into recyclable bio-gas of bio-solids for fertilizer. But if I were to do this and my gardener takes away my green waste, what would I put in that new green waste bin?

"Metro trains don't have to be empty and unsafe" writes UC Berkeley's Ethan Elkind in an LA Times OpEd (18 March 2023) addressing the public transit crisis which in LA has seen system ridership at just two thirds of its pre-COVID levels. For comparison, Elkind says it's worse in the Bay Area, perhaps because BART functioned more like a commuter rail system connecting exurbs with downtown offices, that is until the pandemic. His arguments for LA Metro being different don't follow since he seems to be saying that were like BART but not like BART at the same time. I'm also unsure why his argument for increased density makes any sense if stations are increasingly spread out while he claims downtown LA has become more than an employment center. Is LA Metro to be a BART-like commuter system serving outlying areas or is it to become a dense network to serve short trips in urban areas?

Although crime may be driving people away from the system today, that wasn't the reason why so few people used transit before the pandemic (or even before the Great Recession). Most people had better options, both travel mode as well as housing and activity choices. The added problem with large scale disruptions that force people to change their behavior is that they are less likely to change back when they find new options. Elkind also argues that transit agencies should have the authority to control housing and parking policies as well as to address construction permitting and environmental review. I personally am a bit worried about given transit authorities the authority to control their destiny when they can't even control their needed system funding (and no I don't think these are related as some might think). Elkind may be right in calling for more rapid bus options which are much cheaper than rail and he is right regarding the overarching need to address the crime and safety issues. While some of these issues may be perceived, most are real and all are keeping potential riders from even considering the option.

Several days (22 March 2023) after running Elkind's OpEd, the LA Times ran their own Opinion entitled "L.A. needs safe trains and buses." I won't repeat the litany of rising crime but I was surprised to see that LA Metro pays SoCal police agencies between $150-200 million per year with very little to show for it (and apparently very little actual police presence). The concept of a transit police force was discussed but it would make more sense if such a police force comprised regular police offices, trained for Metro service, and paid by Metro (or other additional revenues). It seems that these transit systems would rather expand the network that to address what is needed on the current system to get people back on board.

Driving through the heat of day into the long cool night
I was feeling worn and ragged when the neon came in sight
I had driven through El Paso and was aching to my core
But I pushed on through the night, with my foot pressed to the floor

The moonlit highway exit sign, led me off the interstate
A pillow called my name to sleep, before it got too late
Down the empty desert highway, through the city fast asleep
The truck stops filled with semis, and the diner signs for "eats"

Lord, I got to lay my body down, and get some rest tonight
So I blessed the stars above, when Lordsburg came in sight

I picked the first motel I saw, got the key and found my place
It was not quite dawn when I awoke and splashed water 'cross my face
I could not remember where I was, until the daylight came
And a sign across the parking lot, said Lordsburg was the name

I stared north in the light of dawn, toward the distant Burro Hills
'cross the frontage road and train tracks, in the desert's morning chill
One freight train was moving east, back from where I came
Another one was heading west, though they both looked just the same

Lord, I had to lay my body down, but I made it through the night
So I blessed my lucky stars, to see Lordsburg in the light

Years before I'd driven through this desert still unchanged
With the trucks and trains and people, most of them without a name
There are cheap motels and fast food joints, and a lot that one can't see
Each boarded-up abandoned store, hid a tale of history

There are people out there on the road, and some rooted in this place
Each has signs of pain and joy, etched deep upon their face
An emptiness surrounds me now, and it lingers day by day
And I'm guessing just like Lordsburg, it will never fade away

Lord, I got to lay my body down, and ease this stressful life
So I'm hoping I'll find Lordsburg, when I finally say good night

Maybe you've heard this one. Five civil engineers walk into a bar discussing faculty commonality across civil engineering research areas. I'll skip past the punch line to my conclusions.

Humans don't interact directly with water resource systems. They interact at only interface points such as where water comes out of a tap. This interaction is minimal and habitual, with no real questions regarding the systems that deliver the water to that interface (unless these systems fail).

Humans don't interact directly with structural systems. They interact with the spaces defined by the architecture (the structural components are thus twice removed). Those spaces are where human activities are performed and thus are critically and consciously important, unlike the underlying systems.

Humans don't interact directly with structural or other engineering components of a transportation system (such as bridges or pavements). As with structural systems, humans interact with the space defined by these system elements. This interaction, however, is unlike both the point interface with water systems and the more complex space interfaces with structural/architectural systems.

Why is this transportation distinction important? Human agents become paramount in these systems and the interactions broaden the number of actors engaged in system operations beyond the core engineers, architects, and scientists who design and build the underlying systems. Interaction within a transportation system engages a spectrum of planners and decision-makers who can influence system operations via policy much more than via engineering.

The nature of user interactions with transportation systems is such that there is commonality of personal experiences. A layman would rarely ask an engineer technical questions about structural or water resource systems but will often be ready with a query on the behavior of a particular transportation system or system element with which they have interacted.

A researcher in this area needs to be more directly aware of the policy implications of transportation systems, in all areas of planning, design, and operations, increasingly focused on the impacts of these systems on not only system performance for users but on non-users and the environment in general.

Ryan Fonseca complains in the LA Times (9 March 2023) that "Waymo, Cruise and other players in the autonomous vehicle space talk a lot about how much safer and easier driving could be if cities embraced self-driving cars." Well of course they do. Fonseca adds "As tech historian Peter Norton ... argues car companies have worked for roughly a century to 'sustain a perpetual overestimate of what cars can do for us.'

That's true for every consumer product so why have cars, like very few other technological innovations (e.g., cell phones), so dominated our life style choices? Could it be that the personal car, like the cell phone, satisfies multiple needs and desires and present continuously updated and improved models that increase perceived utility? A cell phone is a computer that's also a camera, a music player, a GPS, and via hundreds of apps, many other things, all in a high quality, pocket-sized package that provides the user with security, entertainment, and communications while negotiating most any space at any time. What about a car? The car is an even more encompassing personal environment that provides the user with security, entertainment, and transportation (and with a cell phone, integrated communications) while negotiating most any space at any time.

Norton appears to be saying that, like the tobacco industry, the automobile industry has oversold the car which, less face it, has many negative aspects (including all the impacts of emissions and the safety of other travelers, so a reasonably comparable example). But Norton also suggests that a potential solution, even better than Autonomous/Electric Vehicles which can address many but not all of the negative aspects of cars) is to "build more housing closer to where people need to travel." And now my oft-quoted line: "ay, there's the rub." Why do so many in the anti-car lobby not see, or intentionally close their eyes to, the fact that human travel and activity patterns are not linear, even when they see the limitations of linear public transit systems? The 15-minute city may be only a utopian dream for walking micro-mobility but even transit extends accessibility linearly not to mention the ubiquity of cars extending the reach of walking in all directions.

Norton also suggests that we re-consider the objective of speed: "Create environments where you don't need speed, because your destinations are close." But speed, or more precisely time, is always valued, regardless of how close your destinations are. Time is a fixed commodity and is sub-consciously most valued by most people. The less time and cost expended accessing an activity, the greater the utility of the activity.

What would it take to actually address those issues? Norton said first and foremost: "Not letting the people who sell us tech and sell us cars also be the people who tell us what our so-called solutions are." "Tech companies and automakers should not be confused with policymakers," he writes. "We have made that confusion very pervasive, and I'm not that optimistic that we'll resist that successfully." Neither Norton nor Fonseca appear to consider that proponents of walking, bicycling, public transit, and other travel behaviors are also selling their preferred wares to the population. Who knows better? Furthermore, Big Tech funds policy-makers who are in general also biased. Tech wants to sell, policy-makers want to be re-elected. The solution for the latter is term limits, which might also be the solution to the former. Those who promote preferred technologies and policies, with or without a direct monetary benefit, will always have a bias and will always be able to influence if not dominate the decision making process.

From the San Francisco Chronicle (9 March 2023):

"The San Francisco Bay Area's Metropolitan Transportation Commission revealed potential plans last week from an ongoing study exploring pay-per-mile charging as a solution to growing congestion across the area's highways. Two of the three ideas would call for tolls on all lanes for highways with express bus services or regional rail systems, while a third would charge drivers for entering the San Francisco, San Jose or Oakland downtown areas."

Academic research and educational programs in general are time-efficient ways to learn. I haven't seen an accounting of what portion of research and learning is experiential, but then I've never seen an accounting of any sort regarding what was learned and when (other than anecdotal comments about lessons learned a day late or things you wished you knew before).

"The doer alone learneth" (Nietzsche)
Experiential learning has grown in popularity as a successful way to engage students in a creative, real-world environment that attempts to replicate the act of, well, learning in the real world. Learning and life go hand in hand for those who have their senses permanently set on scan, their minds permanently set on process and analyze, which (I believe) leads to a dense neural-network of connections that provide efficient access to all of your experiences. Experiential learning was always part of my early years, although I was not aware at the time that this sort of learning was any sort of learning at all. Much later I was introduced to formal research in grad school which has always seemed to be a second-best option to actually experiencing the underlying research questions.

Personal Experience
I remember driving cross country twice in the early 1960s from New York to Arizona at a time when many of the miles were not on major interstates. Much of the journey was via Route 66 and the business districts of many small towns were infinitely more varied (and thus interesting) than the rural farms and open space where most of the miles were experienced. Twice more (circa 1980) I drove across the country when some interstate sections were not yet completed (in Colorado and Utah). In the 1970s, I drove many times from New York to Florida where along the southern half of the trip much of the interstate system was not yet present. I witnessed first-hand the impacts of roads on local and regional environments, and the neighborhoods where these roads were built, on the people who were most impacted. It never occurred to me to write a research proposal to study what I had already personally experienced, and much more for which I had already read various narratives. While this experience did not explicitly consider air pollution impacts (at the time only the entire fossil fuel industry were aware of these impacts), it was the later but direct connection between residential location patterns and transportation systems performance that lead to the very same conclusions. Money talks.

Stating the Bloody Obvious
Many years later, I still find myself scanning, sensing, processing, and analyzing the world around me, and questioning any part of that world that is oddly ahead, behind, or otherwise out of sync with rest of the world. This is reflected in my blog. Today I came across the results of research done at USC that appeared in an LA Times article written by Terry Castleman (12 March 2023) regarding inequities in L.A. air pollution. The title said it all: "Study finds inequities in L.A. air pollution." The distribution of air pollution has several dimensions, the first being the source and type of the pollutant, but other factors include local meteorology and spatial topography. The findings reported included:

1. Residents of wealthier, whiter areas exported air pollution to the neighborhoods around their communities. Duh. I would need precisely 2 cents to reach this conclusion (and, in truth, decades of traveling the country -- but no one asked me).
2. Prior research has shown the strong differences in exposure levels by race: this is actually a wealth effect (and there may well be a bias in wealth that leads to the bias in exposure)
3. The USC research question: Are you being exposed to more that you produce? I'll answer that one for free. If your wealth allows you live where you choose and travel as you wish, and you are engaged in an average level of non-home activities, then you are producing more pollution than to which you are exposed. General experience with the economics and psychology of spatial location and travel behavior, or the history of civilization, would quickly lead you to this conclusion.
4. Regarding the initial era of freeway construction, most interstates were planned for existing right-of-way or where land was cheaper (often resulting in the demise of rural communities by-passed by new freeways). However, in the case of urban freeways, land was cheaper and easier to take by eminent domain in poorer areas that were inhabited by people of color. In recently, this has often been the case for construction of public transit systems.
5. Concluding that "drivers from whiter tracts tended to traverse tracts that were much less white than their home tracts" is simply repeating the same obvious (albeit correct) message. Wealthy white households do not reside near freeway corridors but utilize them extensively.

Pontification
Does anyone want a world where everything is the same? Where there are no special locations, times, or experiences any different from one person to another? Picture Paris where all twenty arrondissements were the same, or picture a 15-minute city where all 15-minute cells were like a honeycomb -- sweet perhaps but all the same. Sound enticing? Of course not. Variety is the spice of life; perfect entropy is the death of all life. What we really want regarding equality is the proverbial level playing field. Equality, however, needs equal resources upon which to capitalize on opportunity. Those resources include the innate capabilities defined at birth and the knowledge and skills that come from experience. If each child born did not differ physiologically and was raised in equally rich environments, would we all turn out the same? Not all of us. I fear that innate to a small portion of humanity is the overwhelming desire to amass power, wealth, and prestige, and to maintain that position for as long as humanly possible. That is the fundamental problem: some people, maybe most of us, are assholes.

Update:
Holy cow. This stuff travels faster than rumors of a 15-minute city. An LAT article by Sammy Roth published the next day (13 March 2023) featured the headline "Pollution paradox: Drive more, suffer less." Where do I start? This is a bit expected but is also 'supported' by a statistic. That USC study found that:

"for every 1% increase in miles driven to and from work for people who live in a particular part of L.A. County, there's an estimated 0.62% decrease in the lung-damaging 'fine particulate matter' to which those Angelenos are exposed. How is that possible?"

What about on average? What if commuters with longer commutes tended to live in outlying areas which would typically be less dense (in terms of both built infrastructure and traffic) and less polluted? From this perspective, the farther out you move, the longer your commute but the cleaner your local air would be (this does ignore meteorological patterns that move air and its pollutants from say L.A. to the Inland Empire, cetera paribus). This might be the proper interpretation of the USC statistical result which clearly is not, as Roth claims, a paradox nor is it a disaggregate result of travel behavior. It's simply an artifact of sprawling development.

Policies such as California's SB 9 were identified as a way "to allow more apartment construction in wealthier neighborhoods to make it easier for low-income families to live close to where they work -- instead of in far off enclaves burdened by freeway pollution." So who's driving on the freeways? The wealthy, or "low-income families ... in far off enclaves?" If you move low income families into these wealthier neighborhoods will these new residents adopt the commuting patterns of their wealthier counterparts and thus export their pollution to those left behind? My conclusions are thus. First, I'll take a close look at the USC report (but I won't hold my breath, whether near a freeway or not). Second, I'll recommend to the reporter Roth, and the LAT editors, to exercise a more judicious use of subjective words such as 'shameful,' sordid,' and 'spewing,' and maybe have them RIBMF the results before publishing. Third, I'll recommend that we do a better job by considering wealth as an explanatory variable.

Four pounds of crap on a two page spread was the best way to describe today's LA Times OpEd pages. Any one of these pounds was annoying but together was just too much. Here's the run down:

You Can't Build Your Way Out Of ...
A multiple choice question: is the answer (a) congestion (too much traffic), or (b) housing shortages (too little housing). These, and many other public policy questions, are essentially the same. When a resource is over-used, the price increases. Response mechanisms include controlling demand, such as imposing tolls or letting market forces play out, or controlling supply, building or stimulating the growth of more roads or housing (and various combinations of the two). It all comes down to a more fundamental issie: growth. If you want growth, then you need to provide the associated resources. It's bad enough when one tries to selectively apply some arbitrary rule but ignoring the fundamental cause, and not realizing that as soon as you address the immediate problem the fundamental cause still remains, is insanity.

The LA Times OpEd headline (10 March 2023) read "The righteous fight to block housing NIMBYism" and had me about to drop my LA Times subscription, not because of the underlying issue, or because of their general editorial perspective, but because this is one step further on that slippery slope of stupidity that the paper has been sliding down for a while. The tenor of the OpEd was that state control of housing policy has always been the case (SB 9 became effective a little over a year ago), when local control of land use has been locked in place longer than most of us have been alive). "Those laws ... were adopted for good reason -- cities failed to build housing" is NOT a good reason. The LAT seems to think that state or local government builds housing (they don't). Building more housing will reduce prices and accommodate demand but only for a while if demand is growing. One can see that this is no different than building new roads. The LAT then mocks "preserving some idealized vision of suburbia"? Really? How about 'void some dystopia version of decaying urbanity?' Both of these statements are utter stupidity, but the first was uttered in print).

Juxtaposition:
This deranged Editorial on the important issue of housing and growth is side-by-side with a sane Opinion piece on the virtual insanity of Fox News. One page over, an essay by Jenna Drenten caught my eye due to the title "What's with all the 'pantry porn' online?" If you don't know what pantry porn is (I didn't) you'll thank me for suggesting that you do not read this -- it's a well written essay about something that should not have become something that needs a well-written essay -- unless your name is Kevin or Karen. Instead read and try to understand the next opinion essay where the author states that, while 16 percent of new car sales in China (double the global average) are electric vehicles, this rate of change is not fast enough (and please stop using fossil-fuel-fueled metaphors such as 'put the pedal to the metal' -- future cars will likely have neither). There was one more OpEd on this two-page spread which was actually a well-written, topical, human interest story -- how it got printed today, I don't know.

Letters on Pitch Clocks:
Scott Jennings, a sane, smart observer and commentator (with occasional lapses in the political arena), wrote a supportive essay on the recent introduction of a pitch clock in baseball. Today we got the letters. Letter 1 complained that time is not a factor in baseball. Well, not for letter writer but there's a good reason people show up late and leave games early (hint: the games are too long) and also complains that TV is baseball's golden goose (could the letter writer be getting it and realizing how the players and owners are compensated?) ... no. Letter 2 thinks that the old days were so much better, before 'analytics and pitch counts,' when there were 'complete games and no-hitters.' Another way of putting that would be when baseball was more of a game and less of a business. Is daily life accelerating? Yeah, quite probably and one way to slow down and learn how to tolerate boredom is to attend a ball game, even one with the pitch clock in force. Baseball as a pastoral sport died a long time ago. Letter 3 drew some comparisons between football and baseball that missed the point. The real time comparison is that there is a three hour period when both sports are being played but with only 18 minutes of action on the field.

Letters on Invocations:
If the housing issue wasn't enough (the State and the City are now suing each other), how about the invocation battle at Huntington Beach City Council meetings? A voice of sanity suggests not having religious invocations at secular meetings (Render unto Caesar ...), but a second opinion simply wished that a system that wasn't broke, need not be fixed. At the risk of sounding like those letter writers on baseball, Huntington Beach used to be Surf City but is slowly morphing into Honolulu. When you're focused on not building affordable housing and on what invocations should or should not be made at city council meetings, well, things have changed.

In The Conversation Nicholas Dagen Bloom (2 March 2023) suggests that "the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit." Bloom summarizes the problem well:

"Public transit in the U.S. is in a sorry state -- aging, underfunded and losing riders, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many proposed solutions focus on new technologies, like self-driving cars and flying taxis. But as a researcher in urban policy and planning, I see more near-term promise in a mode that's been around for a century: the city bus."

"A century ago, motorized buses were the technological wonder of their day. Rolling fast on tires over newly paved streets, buses upended urban rail transit by freeing riders from aging, crowded, screeching streetcars. In 1922, American buses carried 404 million passengers; by 1930, they were carrying 2.5 billion yearly."

18 Minutes was the sub-header for my next Miscellanea post but I found this too interesting to wait. As part of discussions regarding the introduction of a pitch clock in baseball, comparisons were made with football, many of which completely miss the point of this change. The most astounding similarity is that, for each sport, a game lasts about 3 hours but actual live action on the field is about 18 minutes [ see: MLB and NFL ].

I've not been a fan of the hydrogen promise as a replacement for fossil fuels in transportation. We need to stop burning fossil fuels so if hydrogen were the only option, then we should pursue it. I've seen promising programs deploying electric vehicles slowly morph into one with hydrogen-fuels alternatives (due to the end of California's ZEV Mandate and the involvement of Toyota who had already committed to hydrogen). I've seen the UC Irvine bus fleet change from diesel to all electric buses (save one hydrogen fuel cell bus, which likely had a connection to UCI's National Fuel Cell Research Center and the presence of a hydrogen filling station on campus). There are a small number of hydrogen fueled vehicles in my neighborhood (California, of course, leads the nation in the portion of the vehicle fleet that are electric and I assume the same for hydrogen, and living in a university community makes this anything but surprising). I just don't feel that necessary R&D for hydrogen, let alone the necessary re-fueling infrastructure, is ready for prime time.

Skelton (LA Times, 2 March 2023) calls for hydrogen "to play (a) bigger role in powering cars" and says that State legislators are "trying to get us back on the road" (punningly missing the frequently complaint that maybe it's the 'being on the road' issue that might be as concerning as the power source). Skelton's argument is that home charging is not an option for many potential car owners (missing the point that the initial EV market for homeowners does not limit the deployment of charging facilities any more than it does so for hydrogen facilities). He digs deeper stating that California does not have the grid capacity to charge a fully electric fleet (ignoring the facts that there is no hydrogen grid-equivalent whatsoever and that the production of hydrogen itself requires electricity). And blackouts? How would one get any fuel into a vehicle during a blackout? Skelton's example of an LA to San Francisco trip borders on the inane. Such trips are not at all typical and are also of such a length that most drivers would stop to refuel the car and/or themselves anyway. It is true that currently recharging an EV takes longer (slightly to much, depending on the vehicle and the charging system) but there are essentially no accessible hydrogen charging options for most of the population.

Skelton is correct when he says that hydrogen vehicles produce no greenhouse gases, but neither do EVs, in each case from the proverbial tailpipe. Hydrogen currently requires, however, a carbon-heavy generation process. While EVs can of course utilize electricity generated from burning fossil fuels, it is becoming more common to use solar and other green sources (which of course could be used in hydrogen generation too). A big stumbling block is the current cost of hydrogen: the equivalent of about $16 per gallon. Skelton then admits that "no one is arguing that hydrogen vehicles are preferable to plug-ins" (although, thus far, it seemed as though he was arguing just that, not to mention that all of his sources appear to be hydrogen proponents and much of the information provided is anecdotal.). He claims at the end of his column that hydrogen vehicles would be a good second option. First of all, if by plug-ins he means pure electric vehicles, then a better option than hydrogen on most criteria would be hybrid EVs, and one cannot discount the formidable problem that hydrogen vehicles are not ready for prime time, based on technology, policy, economics, and most other scales.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." Harlan Ellison

Did Pete Townshend (1971) write these lines from a prescient perspective, or was he simply enjoying the benefits of owning a mobile home? Starting from a driver's eye:

"Out in the woods / Or in the city
It's all the same to me / When I'm driving free
The world's my home / When I'm mobile"

"Well, I can lay (sic) in bed with only highway ahead / When I'm mobile"

"I don't care about pollution / I'm an air-conditioned gypsy
That's my solution / Watch the police and the tax man miss me
I'm mobile"

A friend of mine related a post-divorce story about being set-up with an acquaintance of the wife of a colleague. The details aren't important, although the fact that my friend already knew of the woman involved was pertinent. The women in question was one of those multi-talented people who are identified by a list of roles in which they are proficient (e.g., X is a professor, author, astronaut, musician, and a dessert topping) and also a person to whom I would be attracted, physically, artistically, and intellectually. However, she was also a woman with whom I would have no business attempting to start a relationship. Such people appear to be incredibly mercurial, in location, schedule, and likely other ways, and although I envy such a person, I painfully realize that such a life style is no longer in my bones. That's likely the reason for my hesitation with certain people whom I've met that have either always had a life style, or aspire to one at this stage in their lives, to "see the world" (a euphemism that can be broader than it appears). A sense of wanderlust appears to be widely held, but what's the opposite of wanderlust? If wanderlust reflects a restlessness to travel, what form of lust reflects a restlessness to explore inner space? I've seen the world; I want to see the person.

Two souls converged, a saint and a second
Two futures emerged, with toes in the sand
With parallel ways, two hearts alike,
But miles apart, a puzzle so grand

Can this distance be mapped, in miles and time
Is the space in between, in only their minds
Counting the chances, on the shore of the sea

Can two strangers so quickly, find common ground
Can two strangers so hopeful, look past the sound
Of sane voices singing, it never could be

Two paths diverged, no second, no saint
Two weeks passed by, the chances grew faint
Are they too closely linked, to even have doubt,
That they're too far apart, to have it work out.

An installment in my series of "Defining..." posts seeking standardized definition of key terms in Transportation.

First, a fundamental tenet is that there is potential to travel (or to perform activities) and there is actual (i.e., revealed) travel (or activities). These concepts have distinct identities and thus should have distinct definitions. What has been clear to me, and evident in transportation planning history, is that:

1. Accessibility is the potential for movement, as first defined by Hansen (1959), or the potential to perform activities, as introduced with the Activity-based Approach (1970s)
2. Mobility is actual movement -- not mentioned in Hansen's original work on accessibility -- any redefinition to potential movement or to the ability to move only serves to confuse the basic concepts.

Second, there are sub-categories of accessibility:

1. Individual Accessibility is limited by constraints to potential travel/activity, including physical constraints (such as ADA definitions), activity constraints (potential destinations for travel/activity), or other types of constraints (Hagerstrand's constraint work). These are all measures of the potential to travel and these explicitly include the expression "ability to move" which is a measure of potential and thus is a measure of accessibility, not mobility.
2. Aggregate Accessibility is based on spatial distributions for a point or area to potential destinations (this is consistent with any individual definition).

Third, there are sub-categories of mobility:

1. Actual Travel is captured by a range of metrics and typically leads to activity participation.
2. Activity Participation, when physical travel is not involved -- this is not only a virtual-induced component since there can be multi-activity sequences that do not involve additional travel, and the metrics involved are entirely different from those for accessibility. These types of actual behavior, one involving physical movement and one not (or in limited scope), need greater breadth in definition, but they are actual (revealed) and not potential activities.
3. Some researchers refer to this as movement but most conventional and emerging usages emphasize mobility rather than the generic movement, although not as a measure of potential. An example would be Mobility as a Service (MaaS). A potential service that does not produce actual mobility would not succeed. From this perspective, mobility and movement are distinguished only in that mobility is more frequently used to describe virtual activity participation while movement is consistently defined by a change in spatial location.

Fourth, confusion has been introduced by some researchers who define the term mobility via the generic usage of "the ability to move." This ability is a measure of potential and is thus a component of accessibility.

Last, mobility can only result from accessibility (not the other way around). Incarcerated individuals have very little accessibility and very little mobility (they also have little if any choice). On the other hand, I have quite a bit of accessibility (by the full range of definitions) but exercise relatively little mobility (by the full range of definitions) although I have a broad range of choices. The proposed definitions work for this example, with the behavior changes imposed by the pandemic, for the recently snowbound in local SoCal mountains, and for various "mobility" services being promoted, and are fully consistent with accepted definitions of accessibility.

I think that my distinction between potential and actual movement is fundamental, consistent, and easy to comprehend. Regardless of the many demands for words and definition, the transport field needs to define their terms clearly. The simple fact that there is some disagreement indicates that there is a definitional problem associated with underlying behavioral concepts that have generally been present in the literature for decades.

I usually solicit alternative takes on my ideas and opinions. On the subject of accessibility and mobility, confusion typically enters on the mobility side. Dictionaries often define mobility as "the ability to move" but this is clearly a physiological measure (although it can also refer to individual or group cultural movements, an interpretation closer to my definition of transportation mobility if considered as actual versus potential movement). A colleague goes with the generic dictionary definition of "the ability to move" but then equates it with a "potential for movement," which of course is explicitly the definition of accessibility. They then define accessibility as the ability to do things you want to do. These are the same measures relative to potential to move but not actual movement. They define "movement" as "the changing of physical locations or positions in space" (taken from a dictionary). The confusion is that their definitions for accessibility and mobility are essentially the same, so a third term, movement, must be introduced. The confusion may arise from using a physiological definition of mobility as a precursor to accessibility. We cannot define mobility one way, physiologically, as a precursor (an input) to accessibility and then also define mobility as an output of travel and activity participation decisions defined in part by accessibility.

One way to view this definitional dilemma is to understand that accessibility is typically defined by a relationship between an individual (or zone) and the locational distribution of opportunities to fulfill activity demands. This relationship is constrained by more than just spatial separation and these additional restrictions include capability, authority, and coupling constraints (as defined by Hagerstrand). This triad can constrain potential movement and thus constrain accessibility. But it is confusing to refer to these elements of accessibility as mobility. Minimally, this could be called potential mobility, which would place this component fully within the accessibility concept but would unfortunately still maintain confusion with the common equating of travel, as in spatial movements, and mobility (which is commonly measured by trip rates, travel times, or miles traveled). In this view, the term accessibility (potential movement) including its several components are the inputs to a travel behavior process, and mobility (or actual movement) is an output of that process.

Since the field of transportation is at least in part a technical field, we must define concise and consistent terms. One of these uses must be re-defined. Since the term mobility is now commonly used in mobility services which explicitly produce (i.e., sell) movement, not just the potential for movement (Mobility as a Service, or MaaS), a usage consistent with my definition of mobility as an output, we must re-define the physical, legal, and economic constraints associated with primarily individual potential as just that: potential, or accessibility.

"Are L.A. drivers now even worse?' asks Paul Thornton, LA Times Letters Editor (25 February 2023). I gave this some thought and came up with the following factors that may well address the potential change in driver skills peri- and post-pandemic.

First, in the early months of the pandemic, several factors resulted in a mix of experienced and inexperienced drivers and others on the roads traveling in unique, low density, high speed conditions:

1. Many employees no longer commuted and those that continued had the opportunity to change their driving behaviors on virtually all dimensions (departure time, path, speed, etc.).
2. The reduction in transit commuters resulted in reductions in transit service, which in turn caused a shift in mode for employees who still needed to get to work, employees who may not have had the same level of driving experience.
3. On local streets, pedestrian and bicycle volumes initially decreased but then increased while vehicle volumes were still reduced.

Second, as the pandemic progressed, opportunities to gain driving experience were reduced if not eliminated, especially for new drivers (the young and recent arrivals in southern California) but as the pandemic has waned, these drivers are now on the road.

1. Those still driving gained experience, but under different conditions.
2. Those not driving may well have had their skills in general decline

Third, during pandemic recovery over the past year or so:

1. Traffic volumes and congestion have increased significantly, in many cases back to pre-pandemic levels, and this may influence driver attitudes and reactions.
2. Pedestrian and other non-motorized volumes have increased during this portion of the recovery period, and many of these road users appear to be more in tune to the audio of their cell phones or pod casts than they are in tune with the traffic environment (this is also true for drivers).

There are several other potentially relevant factors. Consider the evolution of both vehicle design and physical infrastructure:

1. Physics has not changed, but cars have never been more safe for their occupants yet more dangerous for those not similarly encased in two tons of steel, which may not increase the frequency of accidents but has increased the severity.
2. Infrastructure has also not changed, at least relative to the new distribution of road users in various modes, with varying degrees of experience and with new degrees of inattention.
3. Speed limits and various traffic laws are typically subject to interpretation by both officers in the field and in traffic courts, so there will always be some enforcement flexibility that is applied to all modes including cars slightly over the speed limit, making minor rolling stops (also often by a bicyclist), or pedestrians jay walking or entering a crosswalk after the signal displays "Don't Walk." It is not likely that enforcement policy has changed.

A key but ill-defined set of factors includes politics, social media, and associated human behavior. The political environment has morphed to reflect a higher level of acceptance of what would have been considered bad and unacceptable behavior years before. Intolerance for the inattention or mistakes of others can lead to behaviors that can create dangerous situations, on the road and elsewhere. Social Media and cell phones permeate our lives, affecting not only perspectives on the behaviors of others but also limiting attention spans when negotiating dense traffic networks. Automobility describes the fact that the automobile dominates travel and transportation networks favor them. This should not be surprising since the outstanding majority of travel occurs in motor vehicles and has for virtually all of our lifetimes. That does not mean that this approach to planning, policy, and programming cannot change, at least in dense urban areas, but don't expect it to happen overnight.

Driver's Licenses are a privilege, not a right, but possession is treated as a necessity. We should be more careful when handing them out and more strict about repeat violators and license forfeiture. Driver's Education is also limited, whether via family, private company, or other (I doubt classes still remain in our high schools), but the pervasiveness of complex driving conditions, particularly in dense urban areas featuring multiple modes of travel, should require greater standards for earning and maintaining a license.

Finally, there's Harry's Law. I have a neighbor who prior to the start of local schools each year both encourages children to ride their bikes but also warns them (and their parents) about road safety. His primary advice is that drivers are insane and are out to kill you. If you are a pedestrian or bicyclist, you would be wise to behave as if this assumption is true. Pedestrians will virtually always come out on the losing end of any conflict with a car.

A monthly summary of odds and ends not quite deserving of a considered musing (and certainly not a rant).

"It's estimated that in 2040, during rush hour, driving the 15-mile stretch the project addresses will take 29 minutes in the general purpose lanes and 13 minutes in the express lanes. That compares
to 133 minutes and 121 minutes, respectively, if the improvements are not made."

"More than 65% of Los Angeles Unified School District students who took a fourth year of
high-school math were more likely to enroll, and stay in, a four-year college compared
with nearly 25% of peers who did not take that extra year of math."

Two flames still burn, two candles apart
Images and words, flow from two hearts
Beauty within, searching for light
One is the morning, the other the night

Do brush stokes reflect your dreaming
Do pen strokes obscure my meaning
Are we puzzles that need to be solved
Or enigmas to stay unresolved

Parallel lines, we share some traits
Our lines now cross, one curved, one straight
Are the words you speak a form of play
Do images I show reflect my ways

Are your colors and hues the spark for my fire
Does the blush on your face reflect my desire
Are we able to find the philosopher's stone
An eternal perfection of days spent alone

Burning embers, enlightened bliss
Can we foresee by that first kiss
A blazing tryst, a lasting fire
Or smoke and ash of inflamed desire

A shared existence could be the end
Will we be lovers, or just be friends
Can I see beyond what others view
And learn the art of loving you

In today's LA Times (28 February 2023), David Ulin discusses being thoughtful rather than 'woke' -- an important distinction. He focuses, however, on the expression "you guys," an expression that (as far as I know) never had any associated negative connotation. I've never thought of this expression as being gendered (the term was a casual way of referencing any group of people, or for that matter, any group of anything). Ulin is attempting to avoid use of the expression "you guys" in classes as I too am attempting to no longer use the term "freshmen" in advising sessions and materials (it's a slow process updating all the material but I tell advising groups up front that I'm trying to avoid the term freshmen and instead use the better descriptor "first-years." I perceive my prior term as having a gender bias where as I do not with Ulin's "guys." I can understand, however, why others might but then others may object to many terms used for identification and categorization. Ulin, intentionally or not, makes this point by using terms that he then qualifies ("appropriate" and "absolutists"). He provides justification for offensive language in Roald Dahl books since he says "offence is part of the point."

Yes, as Ulin and virtually everyone else points out, language evolves. But a natural evolution is not the same as laws, regulations, and censorship. I, like Ulin, am "all for choosing consciously the words we use, for thinking before we speak." That's does not guarantee that terms questioned by some or even all will no longer be used in conversation or in writing. Sometimes these usages are accidental, sometimes intentional, but they are still words, with meaning residing with both the speaker/writer and the listener/reader. Ulin ends with the suggestion that self-censorship is the way to go, which is where he should have started.

Note: Ulin noted that earlier this year Stanford took down a web site supporting its IT department's "Elimination of Harmful Language Initiative." UC Irvine's OIT posted a similar list containing the term "blackbox" which has nothing to do with race and references the physical property of objects that emit no light and thus appear black. The term is used as a metaphor describing a situation where the inner workings of an object are not understood, thus no light escapes and no insight on the inner workings is achieved. This is an accurate expression for the phenomena being referenced.

Cars are just babies in the fossil fuel bath water.

"Starting with "Half a century ago" is just like saying "skip the rest of this paragraph because it's no longer relevant to today's life style." I could write a post on just this one intentional misdirection offered by Michael Schneider, founder of SoCal non-profit Streets for All, in the LA Times (27 February 2023). Schneider always has something to say, and I always read what he writes. While I often agree with his long term goals, I more often than not disagree with his short-term vision and especially his arguments, such as in "Can L.A. take back its streets and restore kids' freedom."

Schneider was your typical SoCal automaniac until a recession-induced epiphany morphed him into a die-hard (probably not the best term, for a variety of reasons) bicyclist and thinks that biking is the way to save the world. Jeez, this guy rides his bike, and takes his family along, to LAX. Hell, I don't even like going to LAX in a 2-ton vehicle (not to mention the worst part of that trip, from an environmental perspective, is the second leg on a jet).

He makes valid points (and even his misdirected points show that he has his heart in the right place, but maybe not his full mental capabilities) such as regarding the increase in vehicle mass. While today's vehicles have never been more safe for their occupants, they have never been less safe for other road users (pedestrians and bicyclists, in particular). But comparing the relative size of today's vehicles with those from decades ago makes as much sense as comparing the behavior of today's youth with that from 50 years ago (I add this in case you took my above advice and skipped the first paragraph of Schneider's column). And, no, today's SUVs are simply not larger than a Sherman tank (at least ten percent shorter and not even in the ballpark on other dimensions).

No one wants children dying from any cause, but the photo of a kid skateboarding on an empty Redondo Beach street during the pandemic as an argument to do away with automobiles is not unlike discussing the increase of bicycle-related injuries to the perineum as a reason to not make streets safer for biking. Regarding Vision Zero, for those you were paying too much attention to the hype, the Zero is really the probability that this misdirected goal would ever be reached -- ever, not just by 2025. Rule one when setting goals is to create objectives which are achievable. Speaking of unachievable goals, I've written about LA's Mobility Plan 2035 in Vision Quest.

The bottom line is not that safety of all road users is not important; rather, most road users are in cars and quite frankly aren't listening to good arguments about climate change, which will cost them dearly, to take the time to listen to misdirected arguments about Vision Zero and Sherman tanks. Schneider makes important points but I think his rhetoric is only preaching to the choir. We do need to address the size and weight of passenger vehicles, but it is not adding to the argument to say that no one doesn't need a 6,000 pound Chevy suburban to to get a loaf of bread at the store (how many people have Chevy Suburbans and how many of them are using them to buy a loaf of bread at the store?). The performance metrics proposed by Schneider may carry weight in the progressive halls of the State Capitol, but not with most people since each individual is quite unlikely to lose their life in a car accident but will feel slower speeds on the road if big changes are proposed and implemented. Schneider can likely find his utopia in many small towns across America, and his vision is possible in dense activity centers of America's biggest cities, but he shouldn't hold his breath for wide ranging evolution in planning, politics, or behavior.

Sort of a run-of-the-mill overview that journalists have produced since autonomous vehicle (AV) testing first hit urban roads, Brian Merchant's article in the LA Times (23 February 2023) does have at least two differences. First, the odd yet unexplained observation that the small fleet keeps cruising by the same spot in Santa Monica and, second, mention of the possible presence of Jevons Paradox. The premise of Jevons Paradox is that "making something easier or more plentiful induces people to consume more of it." Travel is not a consumer product that can be bought and stored. Rather, it's a complex behavioral process constrained by the same 24 hours per day that everyone has in which to allocate life's activities. If you accept travel time budgets, then a reduction in total time could produce more travel (although there are other constraints such as money budgets). But it's not travel that is demanded. It's the activities that travel provides a means to access. Would a marginal improvement in travel time allow you a longer duration for an activity, or choice of an activity at a different location, via a different mode or route? Yes, this would be expected, but to what degree would this alter the underlying activity behavior?

More importantly, to what degree would the introduction of autonomous vehicles, in private or ride hailing operation, reduce the amount of time spent traveling? For example, the need to park could be obviated but likely trip cost would increase. If the dreams of many proponents be achieved and traffic flow be improved with autonomous vehicles, then the result would be an effective increase in capacity. The primary response to relative capacity changes would be modification of travel attributes (destination, mode, path, departure time). My gut feel is that fully deployed autonomous operations would have marginal impacts on the total amount of traffic, depending on the degree that operations could minimize empty vehicles circulating (these vehicles increase congestion and thus increase time for vehicles with occupants). In the interim, as field studies suggest, traffic can get worse. Any differences could and should be simulated, but has it been?

Reminds me of CatDog, the old Nickelodeon series, or SNL's Shimmer ("a floor wax and a dessert topping!"). TrainBus is a hybrid transit system that is optically guided, trackless, and features a driver on board. It looks like light rail but features autonomous operations, rubber tires on a virtual track, and powered by lithium-titanate batteries. It apparently can deviate from the virtual track under on-board driver control. Some cost estimates place it at about 20 percent of trams, but others place it at 35 percent or higher. The savings are due to tracks not being utilized but little is said about any improvements to pavement systems to support train weight. Of course, placing any technology on conventional roadways means that operations are either dictated by the overall flow of mixed traffic or dedicated lanes with signal priority must be assigned (which of course could be done with buses as well). Depending on your perspective, there are many limitations and technology hype means the likely inflation of performance and deflation of cost estimates.

Professor Peter Newman thinks this hybrid addresses many of the limitations of both bus and rail options. He says that people don't like to ride buses since they "shutter and shake" (so do many rail transit vehicles but, as we know, that is not why people don't use buses or public transit in general). No word on advanced technology combining the best features of more useful options such as automobiles, bicycles, or micro-mobility modes.

Ezekial Emanuel declaring he will refuse any life prolonging medical intervention after he turns 75 (maybe such a decision should be based on the need for and degree of such intervention, regardless of age); letter writers calling for repeal of the 2nd Amendment (rather than careful modification); a colleague who blamed California's problems on career politicians (rather than proposing term limits or even sharing the blame with state residents); mandating a speed governor to restrict cars to a 85 mph maximum speed (when the majority of traffic fatalities occur at much lower speeds). Each of these is an example of constrained thinking and knee-jerk reactions, a malady that affects not only formal politics but, apparently most areas of life. The reason there are three branches of government rather than two is that the judicial branch, theoretically, provides a level of subjectivity in interpreting the absolutes enacted by the legislative branch and enforced by the executive branch. Our democratic system, with all its checks and balances, provide a flexibility in many cases against absolutist dogma. Viva the difference.

This reminds me of Big Thief's "Change" from "Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In You" (2022):